Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary
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ABPZ20 KNHC 201758

1100 AM PDT THU OCT 20 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small, well-defined low pressure area centered about 700 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce some shower and thunderstorm
activity.  Although upper-level winds are not particularly conducive
for further development, only a small increase in the organization
of the thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a
tropical cyclone before upper-level winds become too strong for
formation.  The low is expected to drift northward or northwestward
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Disorganized cloudiness and showers located a few hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a surface
trough. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable for some development of this disturbance over the weekend
and early next week while the system moves toward the west-northwest
at about 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

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