895
FZAK80 PAFC 162219
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
220 PM AKDT Monday 16 September 2024

FORECAST VALID...Saturday 21 September 2024.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate.

SYNOPSISA low over the eastern Beaufort Sea remains nearly
stationary through Thursday before exiting east into Canadian waters
on Friday. High pressure builds over the Chukchi Sea Thursday
through Saturday. Various lows traverse the Bering Sea through
Saturday.

The main ice edge extends from near 75 32N 134 58W to 76 43N 141
7W to 75 54N 158 56W to 74 32N 171 7W to 73 11N 164 31W to 73
12N 177 16W and continues west into Russian waters. Ice lingers
off the north coast of the Chukchi Peninsula. The ice edge is open
water.

From land-based point in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 350
nm north-northeast of Demarcation Point to 380 nm north of Kaktovik
to 265 nm north of Point Barrow to 305 nm northwest of Point Barrow
to 175 nm west-northwest of Point Barrow to 325 nm northwest of Icy
Cape and continues west into Russian waters. Ice lingers off the
northern coast of the Chukchi Peninsula. The ice edge is open water.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Easterly winds shift northerly on Wednesday,
northwesterly from Thursday through Friday, and then westerly on
Saturday. General drift of the ice pack through Saturday will be
approximately 10 nm per day in the direction of the wind. New ice is
likely beginning to form along the edge of the main ice pack.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Northerly winds persist through Wednesday and
then become variable through Friday as high pressure builds over the
area. Winds shift southeasterly on Saturday. General drift of the
ice pack will be south up to 20 nm through Wednesday and
approximately 10 nm northwest on Saturday. Pack ice continues to
linger off the northern coast of the Chukchi Peninsula.

&&
Fenrich