Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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404 FXUS64 KBMX 110548 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1248 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024 The cold front has finally moved south of our area, with drier air moving in from the northwest. Most cloud cover has dissipated except along and south of the I-85 corridor, but even those will give way to mostly clear skies as we go into the afternoon hours. Dewpoints have dropped into the mid 50s at Haleyville as of midday, with mid to upper 60s dewpoints at Troy and Eufaula. As cooler and drier air continues to advect southward, temperatures should be allowed to dip down into the 50s areawide, with a few upper 40s not out of the question across the far northeast Alabama valleys. Patchy fog also remains in the forecast along the major rivers and lakes from roughly 3am to sunrise Saturday morning. Very tranquil weather conditions are expected once again on Saturday with perhaps a few high cirrus clouds moving into the western counties within the northwesterly flow aloft. With light northerly surface flow, highs are expected to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s with low humidity. 56/GDG && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 210 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024 The next upstream weather system is arriving a little faster with each model run. High clouds will overspread Alabama on Sunday with showers moving into west Alabama late Sunday night. Showers will overspread all of Central Alabama on Monday and keep highs in the 70s. The main upper level forcing will arrive Tuesday morning with the models suggesting the stronger convection staying closer to the coast. This would cut-off the better instability and heavier rainfall from Central Alabama, but still enough instability for a slight chance of thunderstorms. The rain will pull out of Alabama Tuesday evening with a break in the rain through the day Wednesday. More showers and thunderstorms on Thursday as another southern stream short wave trof moves across the southern United States. 58/rose && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2024 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period as high pressure builds into the area. Passing high clouds will move across the southern counties. Otherwise, clear skies are expected. Northwesterly winds at 5-6kts overnight will increase to 8-10kts tomorrow. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Much drier air will arrive tonight and stay around through the weekend. Max RH values overnight will be above 90 percent. Min RH values on Saturday near 35 percent with 20 foot winds from the northwest at 5-7 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 78 52 81 56 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 78 55 82 59 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 79 58 82 61 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 81 59 83 62 / 0 0 0 20 Calera 79 58 82 62 / 0 0 0 20 Auburn 78 59 81 62 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 80 58 82 62 / 0 0 0 20 Troy 79 58 83 62 / 0 0 0 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...14