201
FXUS65 KBYZ 160823
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
223 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday night...

Upper level pattern for the next few days has a trof sitting over
SW Canada that swings a few disturbances through the area, and a
period of stronger jet dynamics Friday afternoon into Friday
night. Probabilities for precipitation Today are fairly low with a
weak disturbance bringing 20 to 30 percent chances to mainly the
eastern half of the forecast area this afternoon/evening. Stronger
jet support support will enhance the dynamics associated with
another disturbance Friday, producing a good chance (50-80
percent) for showers and isolated thunderstorms.

A couple of waves of QG forcing moving through the area in
concert with H7 Frontogenesis dropping in from the northwest and a
surface cold front reflected at the surface will be the impetus
for shower/thunderstorm development and will help to push
precipitation persistence and amounts higher than the H5 pattern
itself would suggest. The NBM is going with moderate rain
potential for a few hours Friday afternoon/evening for central
areas, with the probabilities of over a quarter of an inch of rain
ranging from 40-70 percent from a Ryegate to Columbus line
eastward to a Miles City to Sheridan WY line.

Snow levels start out around 9500 feet on Friday afternoon, but
drop quickly to around 5000 feet by Saturday morning. Can`t rule
out a wet dusting of snow late Friday evening down to around 5000
feet, but no impacts expected from this activity.

Winds will be breezy today, with mixing from above bringing
westerly gusts to 25 mph this afternoon. Winds will also increase
Friday evening as 850mb winds increase to 30 to 40 mph behind the
cold front and upper level energy. Its a bit harder to push
stronger winds aloft down to the surface at night, so its likely
that gusts will hold under 30 mph except where shower/thunderstorm
precipitation pushes those elevated winds downward. Chambers

Saturday through Wednesday...

Unsettled weather is expected to continue over the weekend and
into next week.

A quick moving system will impact the region Saturday, followed
by a trough impacting the region Sunday through Wednesday.
Isolated showers are possible (10-20%) Saturday, but the best
chance for widespread precipitation begins Sunday.

Currently, for each day Sunday through Wednesday, there is
a 40-50% of at least 0.1" of precip west and south of Billings
and a 20-30% chance of the same from Billings east and north.
Additionally, the occasional thunderstorm will be possible (20%)
over the west each afternoon.

High temperatures over the weekend will be in the mid 60s to near
70, dropping a bit to upper 50s to mid 60s for Monday through
Wednesday. Archer

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated showers will continue to progress through the area this
evening into tonight. The majority of this activity will be weak,
with only a low chance for thunder mainly over the Bighorn
Mountains late this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail. For Thursday, isolated showers, with a rumble of thunder
or two, are possible, but the overall chance is low. Breezy
conditions with wind gusts around 30-35 kts will occur Thursday
afternoon along the western foothills from K6S0 to K3HT. Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 079 049/072 042/066 043/064 040/062 042/063 042/065
    2/R 27/T    50/U    14/T    35/T    34/T    24/R
LVM 077 047/068 036/066 039/060 035/059 037/061 039/063
    2/R 15/T    30/N    16/T    35/T    24/T    35/T
HDN 079 048/075 041/068 041/067 038/064 040/064 042/068
    2/R 37/T    70/U    13/R    34/T    33/R    23/R
MLS 077 049/073 043/065 043/068 041/062 042/062 041/066
    2/R 36/T    61/N    12/R    22/T    22/R    22/R
4BQ 077 051/080 042/065 042/072 041/062 042/063 041/067
    1/B 24/T    60/U    11/B    22/R    33/R    22/R
BHK 076 048/077 040/065 039/071 039/062 038/061 037/064
    1/B 25/T    61/N    11/B    32/R    23/R    23/R
SHR 076 047/078 036/066 041/071 037/059 037/061 038/065
    1/B 25/T    60/U    02/T    25/T    44/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings