955
FXUS62 KCAE 200536
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
136 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and dry weather expected early this week with warming
temperatures through the week under high pressure. A frontal
boundary will approach the region Thursday and is expected to
stall just north of the area resulting in chances of showers and
thunderstorms Friday into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Skies have cleared out across most of the forecast area tonight
with the primary exception being in Burke County, GA where
lingering clouds continue to shift south. Guidance suggests
that clouds will redevelop towards daybreak, especially over the
northwestern CWA but the entire region will remain dry. Lows
tonight will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Fair and dry weather expected early this week as the upper
trough continues to shift further offshore and upper ridging
builds eastward from the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the east
coast. Surface high pressure will be centered from New England
down the east coast on Monday before shifting slightly further
east on Tuesday as a strong low pressure system develops over
the Central Plains lifting into the upper Midwest.

Atmospheric moisture will be limited with PWATs around 70-80
percent of normal. This should yield nice weather with near to
slightly warmer than normal temperatures with highs on Monday in
the lower to mid 80s and in the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday
with plenty of sunshine each day. Overnight lows expected to be
near normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Humidity should be a
bit lower as well with deep mixing and dewpoints falling into
the 50s each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Little change in the overall forecast thinking for the extended
forecast period. The upper ridge axis should shift east of the
forecast area Wednesday as a positively tilted upper trough
moves into the Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure will also
shift offshore allowing for more southerly flow across the
region. This will allow PWATs to slowly increase with a stronger
increase on Thursday with ensembles showing PWATs rising to
around 110-120 percent of normal. Forecast soundings indicate a
prominent inversion around 850mb-700mb both Wednesday and
Thursday and without any upper forcing, this should prevent much
convection across the forecast area.

Friday through the weekend the weather becomes a bit more
unsettled as the upper ridge flattens, giving way to more
westerly 500mb flow and a series of shortwaves move into the
region and a frontal boundary stalls near the region. 60-70
percent of ensemble members show probabilities of CAPE greater
than 500 J/kg each day. It is too far out to have confidence in
timing of shortwaves or assess a true severe threat, but the
threat of thunderstorms seems high with active weather expected
into the weekend. Temperatures will show a continued warming
trend on Wednesday into Thursday under the influence of the
upper ridging with highs expected in the upper 80s to lower 90s
with lows also trending warmer in the mid to upper 60s.
Increased cloud cover and potential precipitation leads to more
uncertainty and higher spreads in the temperature guidance for
the weekend but fairly confident temperatures should remain
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR Conditions Likely through the Period....

Skies have cleared out across the terminals tonight. Guidance
suggests that clouds will redevelop towards daybreak but no
restrictions are expected at this time. The clouds lift and
become a scattered cumulus deck in the afternoon but the region
stays dry with stable conditions in place. VFR conditions will
persist into Monday night.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... No significant flight restrictions
are currently anticipated through Wednesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$