


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
070 FXUS65 KGGW 082103 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 303 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Hot July conditions will continue with high temperatures in the 90s today followed by 100s tomorrow (Wednesday). 2) A Heat Advisory is in effect for tomorrow, highlighting the risk for heat related illnesses. 3) Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected with a cold front Wednesday afternoon through through early Friday morning. Some thunderstorm downdraft wind gusts could be borderline severe during Wednesday evening. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: As of mid-afternoon today, only a few fair-weather cumulus clouds are to be found in our area, under a growing ridge of high pressure. A few evening/overnight isolated showers are possible, but will remain south of MT-Highway 200. The ridge will shift more over the front range of the Rocky Mountains and the adjacent High Plains by this time tomorrow (Wednesday), setting up favorable conditions for high temperatures to climb above 100. Thankfully, with such a dry atmosphere, the heat index will actually be lower than the actual temperature. But hot is still hot, and the Heat Risk guidance suggests that major heat illness impacts are possible across most northeast Montana locations for those not taking necessary precautions. The previous Heat Advisory that was issued this morning has been updated this afternoon to include all of our forecast zones. Some isolated to scattered, high based thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon through evening hours tomorrow, but models continue to show very little if any rain resulting from them, which raises concerns for dry lightning. Widespread steady wind speeds will be 10 to 15 mph, so fire weather concerns would only focus on wind potential from sudden and short-leved downdraft wind gusts. Relief, in the form of cooler air is expected Thursday and Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence of temperatures reaching the 90s to near 100 for many locations by Wednesday. Dry thunderstorms with gusty to near severe wind gusts late Wednesday afternoon and early evening is average confidence. Deviations include incorporating hi-res wind data to emphasize isolated thunderstorms impacts on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 2100Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR. LLWS: Low level wind shear will be possible at the terminals beginning late tonight. DISCUSSION: Clear skies today with maybe a few high to mid clouds moving in tonight after sunset. WINDS: SE to E at 5 to 15 kts through the day and into the evening. Gaining a S component at KSDY and KGDV early Wednesday morning. Isolated erratic gusts may be possible if a storm happens to pass directly over a TAF site. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson- Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Petroleum-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-Southwest Phillips- Western Roosevelt-Wibaux. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow