Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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581 FXUS63 KLBF 121130 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 630 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... *Chance of showers and thunderstorms today *More widespread thunderstorm chances Tuesday afternoon and evening with potential for strong to severe storms && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 The main concern in the short term will be chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Most CAMS are showing a more isolated to scattered development of showers and thunderstorms, mainly starting at noon and onward through the evening hours. A few of the models bring in shower activity from the south by mid morning with more of scattered to widespread development. Expect the greater chance of more scattered to widespread develop generally south of interstate 80, with more isolated to scattered development north of the interstate into the Sandhills and north central Nebraska. Don`t expect to much wetting rainfall, however could see a quarter of an inch or more in some locations, generally across southwest Nebraska, with lesser amounts farther north. Although there will be a slight chance for thunderstorms, the environment will be limited. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 The next chance for precipitation will come Tuesday as a shortwave trof begins to move east into the region. There will be a chance for strong and even severe storms in the afternoon. There will be a narrow corridor of 0 to 3 km CAPE around 1000 J/kg or greater generally along and east of HWY 61 and along and west of HWY 183. This area would be the greatest concern for convective development. After Tuesday, there will be a couple more weak shortwaves that move through, Wed. and Thu., which could lead to more slight precipitation chances. After a brief cool down of temperatures on Wednesday, temps will warm up into the upper 70s to low 80s by Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 An area of low pressure moving onto the High Plains will result in scattered rain showers and somewhat lower ceilings (~5kft) throughout the day, starting in the south. New development occurs across the Sandhills and toward the northern terminals during the afternoon. Conditions should hold at VFR, although brief interruptions due to lower visby or cigs will be possible in heavier rain. Meanwhile, south/southwest winds this morning will transition to northeasterly midday (north/VTN) or this evening (south/LBF). && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...Snively