Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
225 FXUS62 KMHX 091812 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves through the area on Friday, followed by high pressure over the weekend. Another front will come through around the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 2 PM Thursday...CAMs continue to trend toward a drier forecast for this afternoon, so PoPs have been lowered across the board. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be east of Highway 17 but coverage will be scattered. Previous Discussion...As of 10 AM Thursday...Morning convection has waned with only a few scattered light showers ongoing across the CWA. Clouds are beginning to diminish as well, but this won`t last because a cold front and surface trough are moving east. These features would be the driving force behind any redevelopment this afternoon. The consensus of the most recent run of the CAMs is that the MCS moving across TN and GA this morning will remain south of us as it progresses towards the coast. Our morning convection and the scenario that has the decaying MCS staying to our south would favor a less active afternoon. Although it looks like the bulk of the stronger convection will stay to our south, some CAMs are still showing isolated to widely scattered redevelopment this afternoon. With MLCAPE increasing to 500-1000 J/kg and deep layer shear increasing to 40-45 kt, it`s possible that some storms become strong to severe. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thu...Weak low pressure will strengthen near the VA/NC border overnight as associated cold front begins to push into eastern NC. Low end svr threat will continue into the evening hours, likely diminishing with loss of diurnal heating. Any lingering convection will push off the coast by late this evening. Some guidance shows potential for patchy fog development inland overnight, but at this time think light WSW winds will limit development. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As 315 AM Thu... Cold front pushes offshore on Friday with drier and cooler weather forecast for this weekend as high pressure ridging builds in from the south and west. More unsettled weather then approaches ENC on Tue/Wed. Friday... Upper level troughing will be noted over the eastern CONUS on Friday with multiple mid level shortwaves rounding the base of this troughing Fri afternoon and evening. At the surface, cold front will be nearing the coast Fri morning eventually pushing offshore by Fri afternoon. As this occurs the first shortwave will be making its way across ENC allowing for surface cyclogenesis just off our coast with low pressure deepening as it tracks to the north and east. The second shortwave then tracks across ENC Fri evening. Lift from the incoming shortwaves should initiate shower and thunderstorm activity across the region late Fri morning into Fri afternoon with guidance suggesting fairly widespread coverage of showers and storms on Fri. Kept Chc to low end likely PoP`s as a result Fri afternoon and evening. Precip persists well into the evening as the second s/w moves through the area. Any thunder threat quickly ends from west to east Fri evening with precip chances ending across ENC around daybreak Sat as the cold front and low pressure continue to pull away. While instability will be marginal at best with guidance suggesting somewhere around 250-750 J/kg of MLCAPE across the region, shear will remain quite potent persisting at 40-50 kts as the shortwaves move through. This may end up promoting a few stronger to potentially severe storms Fri afternoon and evening with a few stronger gusts and some small hail possible, though given the limited instability across the region current thinking is we may see more general thunder with a very low threat at seeing a strong to severe storm with the highest chance at seeing this activity across our offshore waters and far southern counties where the best instability and shear will coincide. Highs get into the mid 70s to low 80s while lows get into the 50s overnight. Sat and Sun... Upper troughing remains over the eastern CONUS this weekend while a cutoff upper low over the Four Corners region begins to push E`wards towards the Plains. Yet another shortwave will round the base of this troughing on Saturday before ridging finally begins to build in from the west on Sun. At the surface low pressure with attendant fronts will be diving SE`wards across the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic on Sat before moving offshore on Sun and pulling away from the region while high pressure ridge will gradually build in from the south and west. Latest trends have shown a slightly wetter solution across the area for Sat and Sun as this low makes its closest point of approach, but given this is a more recent trend and models tend to overdue the amount of moisture under drier NW-W`rly upper flow have elected to cap precip potential to just SChc and relegate any PoP`s to our northern zones and offshore waters. I am more confidant however in more widespread cloud cover over the weekend and cooler temps with highs only getting into the 70s each day while lows dip down into the 50s each night. Mon through mid week next week... Upper ridging finally builds over the Eastern Seaboard and quickly pushes offshore by Tue as previously mentioned cutoff low opens into a trough and tracks E`wards towards the Mid-Atlantic Tue and Wed. Associated shortwave also quickly pushes E`wards bringing our next threat for unsettled weather to the area around Tue/Wed. As s/w makes its way E`wards surface cyclogenesis occurs across the Plains with low pressure and its associated fronts quickly approach the Carolinas from the south and west Tue. There remains considerable differences in the exact timing and location of this low next week but it is looking like this will bring our next threat for measurable precip Tue into Wed. Temps remain about avg across the region next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 2 PM Thursday...Pred VFR through the period. Isolated convective redevelopment is possible this afternoon, but the forecast has trended much drier as of the afternoon update. If a thunderstorm were to develop, brief periods of sub-VFR VIS and CIGs are possible. Latest guidance hasn`t been aggressive with low stratus developing early Friday morning, but there is still a small signal, so have lower CIGs in the TAFs before sunrise. Since the forecast has trended drier and winds should stay up overnight, confidence in impactful stratus or fog is low. Tomorrow afternoon, CIGs will lower and winds will gust as a cold front approaches. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 320 AM Thu... Sub-VFR conditions will be possible on Fri in any shower or thunderstorm that impacts the region as a cold front tracks across ENC. As we get into the weekend and beyond expecting primarily VFR conditions into the end of the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 615 AM Thu...Latest obs show SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt and seas 3-5 ft. Pressure and thermal gradients will strengthen through the day, with SW winds increasing to 15-25 kt. SCAs continue for the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound, with 15-25 kt winds developing by late morning and peaking late this afternoon and evening. Seas will grad build, peaking at 4-7 ft. Gradient will slowly relax late tonight and early Fri morning with seas slowly subsiding. Area of showers and tstms may impact the waters towards daybreak this morning, with potential redevelopment this afternoon and evening. Some storms may be strong to severe with strong winds and hail. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 325 AM Thu...Cold front will push through the region on Fri with shower and thunderstorm activity expected. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be possible within any thunderstorm that impacts our waters. More benign weather then forecast this weekend into early next week. At the start of the period widespread 10-15 kt W-SW`rly winds with gusts up around 20 kts will persist across all our waters while 3-5 ft seas will be noted along the coastal waters. As we get into the afternoon and evening, cold front will have pushed offshore but a wave of low pressure will have developed along this front and have begun deepening. This will allow winds to shift from a W-SW direction to a N-NE direction Fri afternoon and evening from N-S with winds increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts up around 25-30 kts Fri night. In response to the increased winds, seas will build primarily north of Ocracoke to 4-6 ft once again promoting a brief period of SCA conditions across our waters. N`rly winds will quickly ease on Sat down to 5-10 kts with seas along our coastal waters returning to 3-5 ft and eventually 2-4 ft Sat aftn as the front and deepening low pull further away from our waters. More benign boating conditions are then forecast as winds generally remain at 5-15 kts and seas at 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154- 156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD/OJC SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...RCF AVIATION...CQD/RCF/OJC MARINE...CQD/RCF