Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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FNUS73 KMPX 111242
FWSMPX
Spot Forecast for Perch Creek WMA...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
742 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
For the Perch Creek Rx burn expect to see mostly clear skies and
humidity near 40 percent at ignition time falling to the low to
mid 20s percent this afternoon as temperatures climb into the mid
70s. Surface level winds will be primarily out of the northwest
at 5-10mph today at ingnition time then shifting west by this
evening, wind gusts this afternoon will near 20 mph.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........63 at ignition...Max 77.
RH..................43 percent at ignition...Min 23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 8 mph at
ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 8 to 12
mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /13600 knot-ft/ at ignition.
Max...excellent /105100 knot-ft/ increasing to
excellent (115100 knot-ft) late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 8600 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............63 67 70 72 75 75 77 77 77 76 73 68
RH..............43 36 30 27 23 23 23 23 24 25 29 36
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W SW S
20 FT wind spd..8 10 10 12 12 12 10 10 9 8 7 7
20 FT wind gust.13 14 16 17 17 17 16 16 14 12 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 3.4 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.5 8.2 8.6 7.1 3.6 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W W SW
Transp wind spd.10 13 16 16 16 16 16 17 15 12 7 9
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Temperature.........Min 56.
RH..................Max 62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 9 mph shifting to the southwest
7 to 13 mph early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (92800 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (3300 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest 9 to
17 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of
thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Chance of
rain showers in the afternoon. Chance of
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 84.
RH..................Min 26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 12 to 16 mph increasing to 14 to 16
mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (93500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (92300
knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 20 mph shifting to the northwest
around 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
$$
Forecaster...Dunleavy
Requested by...Chad August
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413764.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Chad.august@state.mn.us