964
FXUS62 KRAH 110607
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
207 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will pass over the Mid Atlantic and
Carolinas through the weekend, as a warm and humid air mass holds in
place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 8 AM Friday/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

The Flood Watch has been allowed to expire and has been removed
from the hazards section of the AFD below. Within the seasonably
warm and humid airmass, low stratus and patchy fog is expected
to develop over the area through early this morning. Lows will
range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...

With the upper trough shifting farther to the east, there should be
a decrease in showers and thunderstorms compared to the last few
days. Unlike recent days, the highest chance for precipitation
should be across eastern counties instead of western counties.
Considering the two rounds of heavy rain in the last week, one from
Chantal on Sunday and a second round on Wednesday, the entire
forecast area remains under a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall, even though all locations have not previously
received heavy rainfall this week. In addition, the entire forecast
area is also under a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe
thunderstorms, with damaging winds as the primary threat - this
should occur primarily during the late afternoon in the evening.
Expect seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s and lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...

The extended forecast doesn`t feature much in the way of synoptic
features, which means there won`t be much variation in the forecast
through the period. While a cold front is forecast to be along the
west side of the Appalachians on Monday and approaching central
North Carolina by Tuesday, the level of confidence this many days
out in a front making it through the region is low. Monday is the
day with the greatest coverage of 60% chances of showers/storms,
although every day in the extended forecast ranges from 40 to 60%
chances for precipitation somewhere across the forecast area. As is
typical with North Carolina summertime convection, the most likely
times for precipitation are the afternoon and evening, with minimal
coverage during the overnight and morning hours. The highs/lows will
stay similar, near 90 and 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 AM Friday...

Lingering trailing stratiform rain on the backside of departing
convection lingers around RWI and has finally pushed east of FAY.
This activity has thus far prevented the degradation of cigs, but as
it continues to dissipate, IFR to LIFR cigs and MVFR to IFR vsbys are
expected to fill in, which is already beginning to occur around RDU.
At the Triad terminals, guidance indicates more of shallow fog
signal, but how far they drop is uncertain. Opted to maintain MVFR
vsby with FEW LIFR for now, but further amendments may be needed as
this fog layer develops. Gradual improvement to VFR is expected
through the morning hours at all TAF sites. Coverage of
showers/storms this afternoon/evening appears to be much less than
previous days. Probabilities for terminal impacts from convection is
10 to 25% and precludes the addition for PROB30s in the 06z TAFs at
this time (best times will be anywhere between 17z and 23z).

Looking beyond 00z Sat, the overall pattern will remain largely
unchanged into early next week, with a risk for early-morning sub-
VFR fog/stratus, and a chance for showers and storms each
afternoon into the evening.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Swiggett/Hartfield