Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 252009
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
209 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH
W/SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. SHORT WAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PUSHING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH NEXT WAVE MOVING INTO ERN MT/ERN WY. AT THE SFC...LOW
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR KPIR.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE IN THE 2000-
2500J/KG RANGE GENERALLY EAST OF THE BLKHLS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR MAXING OUT NEAR 50KTS IN SCNTRL SD. MLCAPE ONLY AROUND 500J/KG
ACROSS NERN WY INTO NWRN WY WITH MINIMAL SHEAR. AS SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES LATER THIS AFTN...LATEST HIGH RES CAMS SUGGESTING
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AROUND THE BLKHLS AND SPREADING ONTO THE SD
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLKHLS. CAPE/SHEAR FOR THIS AREA SUPPORTS A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. THE OTHER AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER CNTRL
SD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SFC TROF...WHERE BETTER CAPE/SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO BEST CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE BY LATER
THIS EVE.

SUNDAY...THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS ACRS THE CWFA DURING THE AFTN AND WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 90S...AND POSSIBLY AROUND 100 IN THE
BADLANDS. THERE IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/JET SPEED MAX THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY...BUT WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING AROUND 4C
DEGREES FROM TODAY WOULD EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
ALSO...SHEAR VALUES SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE FOR ORGANIZED SVR
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CNTRL SD PLAINS IN THE 60S MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A DRY LINE ACROSS NE WY TOWARD THE BLKHLS
IN THE AFTN. COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE MON AFTN
AND COLD FRONT MON EVNG...HOWEVER BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS
TO BE NORTH OF THE CWA. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN THRU MIDWEEK. A WARMING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RESULT MAY BE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROPPING TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. WITH INCREASINGLY DRY
FUELS...THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS MAY SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13


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