Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 281130 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
630 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF IT NEAR AMA AND EASTWARD.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MENTIONED A TSRA AT THE AMA TAF SITE FOR THE
FIRST 4 HOURS. DID NOT MENTION ANY SHRA AT GUY OR DHT AS THE RAIN
THERE SHOULD BE ON A DECREASING TREND. THE OTHER TRICKY PART OF THIS
FORECAST ARE THE LOW CLOUDS. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSRA AT AMA. DID NOT MENTION LOW CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE FOR NOW...BUT THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO GUY AND DHT WITH THE
NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH THE TSRA THIS MORNING...BUT THEY SHOULD
PICK A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL SITES BY MID DAY.

MORE TSRA MAY ROLL THIS WAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT...PROBABLY AFTER 04Z. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST AND
IT WILL SET UP SHOP OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AND
THERE IS WHERE IT WILL SIT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST.
AGAIN...BELIEVE THAT THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE EAST OF THIS
HIGH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND INTERACT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS.

TODAY THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE WITH THE CURRENT MCS WHICH IS OVER OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS MCS MAKES IT BEFORE IT FALLS
APART. THE NAM MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING THIS MCS TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY. SOME OTHER HIGH RES MODELS
ALSO SUPPORT THE NAM SOLUTION. THE GFS WEAKENS THIS MCS MUCH QUICKER
AND IT DOES NOT BRING IT AS FAR EAST. IF ONE IS TO BELIEVE THE NAM
SOLUTION...THEN THERE COULD BE A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF YOU BELIEVE THE
GFS SOLUTION...THEN CONVECTION REGENERATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER MCS HEADS THIS WAY THIS EVENING. WE ARE
LEANING TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS IT MAY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO RECOVER
BEFORE NEW CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP.  AND EVEN IF IT DOES DEVELOP...
IT MAY START OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS AND WITH THE WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL IT REACHES OUR
NORTHWEST CWA. ALSO AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ON HOW INTENSE THE
CONVECTION WILL BE IF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
ARE STABILIZED DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST CWA...SO THIS MAY BE ANOTHER PERIOD WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN CAN BE BETTER FORECAST.

THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY BY THIS WEEKEND...
WHICH COULD POSSIBLY KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. NOT
SURE RIGHT NOW IF THIS WILL BE THE CASE...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT
FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW NONETHELESS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08





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