Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 181657
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1057 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.AVIATION...
18Z Issuance...All sites will remain VFR through the next 24
hours. Winds will remain light and from the southwest.

Beat

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 411 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over southwest Texas this morning will track east today
and tonight. An upper ridge from the southwestern states
northeastward into the central Plains states will build east
through Friday across the Panhandles before shifting east away
from the forecast area Friday night and Saturday. An open wave
forecast to push east out of the western states late this week and
approach the Panhandles by Saturday night and Sunday. The exact
track of the upper low still uncertain at this time, however
should move across northern New Mexico Saturday night and then
lift east and north into southwest Kansas by Sunday morning. With
the track of the upper low farther north, the Panhandles should be
mainly dry slotted with the exception of the northwest portions of
the forecast area.

Across the northwest portions of the Panhandles on Sunday,
confidence low right now however it appears that either rain or
snow may be possible depending on the depth of the cold air. Winds
will be the bigger concern on Sunday across most of the
Panhandles south of the upper low. Wind Advisory may be needed for
the stronger west and northwest winds behind first cold front
Saturday night and Sunday morning with a secondary surge expected
Sunday night. A reinforcing surge of colder air forecast to push
across the Panhandles Monday night and Tuesday morning. Dry
conditions expected to continue next week.

Schneider

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to marginally critical fire weather conditions are in
store for mainly the southwest and south central Texas Panhandle
Friday afternoon and then across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and
the western and south central Texas Panhandle Saturday afternoon.
The biggest caveat will be the 20 foot downsloping southwesterly
winds, which may only reach into the 15 to 20 mph range with
higher gusts. However, potential is there for wind speeds of 20
knots or higher especially over the southwest and south central
Texas Panhandle. Transport winds Friday afternoon forecast to be
around 18 knots with 20 to 23 knots Saturday afternoon. 850 mb
thermal ridge forecast to set up over the Panhandles Friday and
remain over the forecast area into Saturday.

ERC values on Wednesday have risen into the mid 50s at the Cedar
and Wheeler RAWS stations with 50 at the Bootleg RAWS station.
With mostly sunny skies and continued dry conditions along with
the increased southwesterly 20 foot winds, these values should
continue to rise into the upper 50s to near 60 and could possibly
approach the 90th percentile by Saturday which is in the low 60s.
With max temps forecast to climb as much as 20 to 25 degrees above
normal by Saturday with the possibility for records to be broken
along with a severe drought across the Panhandles, decided to
issue a Fire Weather Watch for both Friday and Saturday afternoons
into the early evening hours across mainly the southwest and south
central Texas Panhandle Friday and then across the western
Panhandles and south central Texas Panhandle Saturday afternoon.
Regardless, this is expected to be a low end fire weather event.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for the following zones: Deaf Smith...Oldham...Potter...
     Randall.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...
     Hartley...Oldham...Potter...Randall.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for the following zones: Cimarron.


&&

$$

16/89


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