Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 292049
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
349 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Developing Cu field over the Panhandles as colder H500
temperatures move in out ahead of an upper level perturbation
over the high terrain of NM/CO indicate upper level instability
for some possible diurnal convection later this afternoon and
evening. Latest radar shows convection developing over the high
terrain over New Mexico. Latest HRRR/CAMs do indicate eastward
propagation of these storms as satellite derived northwesterly
20-25 kts winds at 600-400 hPa show the best chances of
precipitation will be across the far western and northwestern
Panhandles by this evening. With CAPE around 1000 J/kg along with
effective shear around 30 kts, if these storms make it to the
Panhandles, an isolated storm with hail and gusty winds cannot be
ruled out. Under weak upper level dynamics, the chances of
thunderstorms are expected to be diurnally driven.

This same pattern of diurnally driven convection is expected to
continue throughout the rest of the forecast period. Latest 29/12Z
model and probabilistic guidance are slowing down the eastward
progression of the moisture transport out into the Panhandles due
to a persistent zonal flow across the Gulf of Mexico bringing in
the surface moisture with south and southeasterly flow. Although
not strong, there maybe enough surface moisture in-conjunction
with an upper level disturbance ejecting out of eastern New Mexico
to give out region the best chances of thunderstorms, in which
some could be strong during the day on Thursday. Eventually as we
go into early next week, the trend of showers and thunderstorms
will continue to decrease from west to east across the Panhandles.
Temperatures will flex from near average to slightly above
average throughout the forecast period.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                54  84  59  79  57 /  10  10  20  30  40
Beaver OK                  57  86  57  88  61 /  20  20  20  20  20
Boise City OK              51  81  55  82  55 /  40  20  30  20  20
Borger TX                  57  86  60  85  61 /  20  10  20  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              53  85  59  81  57 /  20  20  20  30  40
Canyon TX                  54  86  58  78  56 /  10  10  20  30  40
Clarendon TX               57  85  61  82  60 /   5   5  10  30  40
Dalhart TX                 51  83  55  80  56 /  30  20  40  30  30
Guymon OK                  54  85  57  85  59 /  30  20  30  20  20
Hereford TX                53  86  57  78  56 /  20  20  20  40  40
Lipscomb TX                57  86  60  86  62 /  10  10  10  20  30
Pampa TX                   54  84  58  82  59 /  10  10  20  20  40
Shamrock TX                58  87  61  85  61 /   5   5  10  30  40
Wellington TX              59  88  61  85  63 /   5   5  10  30  40

&&


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/29


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