Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 240146
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
946 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front, will cross the area late tonight and
Tuesday. Windy conditions, along with showers and maybe a
thunderstorm, will accompany this system. Behind the front,
temperatures will trend cooler, for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
945 pm update...no major changes to the forecast. Showers
currently over western NY/PA and moving east still on track to
arrive overnight. Also, winds have been on the increase in
response to strengthening LLJ and expect this trend to continue
into the overnight so Advisory remains in effect. Still the
potential that heavier showers/storms could mix damaging winds
down to the surface...especially from I-81 east Tuesday where
heavy rain threat will also be the greatest.


3 pm update...In response to an approaching low pressure system
winds will increase out of the s/se this evening with sustained
winds 20 to 30 mph, and gusts 40 to 50 mph at times tonight and
Tuesday morning. The strongest winds will be along the ridge-
tops and through the lake plain of the Finger Lakes. Strong
winds in the boundary layer will be able to efficiently mix down
to the surface with the presence of steep low level lapse rates
in a slightly unstable air mass ahead of a cold front and a
line of convection.

A south to southeast flow at low levels has pumped moisture and
clouds across the CWA today. Some sprinkles possible across the
higher terrain of NEPA and the Catskills late today into this
evening. The steadier showers in wrn PA will move in after
midnight, then move east across the area exiting Tuesday evening
in the east.

The rain ahead of a strong front associated with a deep trough
cutting off over the Ohio Valley tonight. As it goes negative
tilt the front will slow its exit in the east. Models have now
flip flopped and have a faster exit. With strong wind fields
giving good directional and speed shear. High PWATs will mean
heavy rain will be with the front and could drop a fast half
inch in an hour. With the front slowing in the east rainfall
amounts will be heaviest in the far east where around 2 inches
is possible. Small chance of flash flooding there with some
higher amounts due to orographic lift and training.

Some cape of a hundred or two could add lift with and ahead of
the front. Some thunderstorms will form late tonight into
Tuesday. This could mix down the stronger winds and cause
isolated damage. Highs upper 60s to around 70.

Behind the front, only a slight chance of showers for the west
in the afternoon and everywhere in the evening. Late Tuesday
night it will be dry with weak high pressure as the upper level
trough stays in the western Great Lakes. Lows in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 pm update...

A cooler and much drier air mass will be advecting in from the west
on Wednesday as a sharp upper trough across the Great Lakes rotates
ewd through the Northeast US. The potential for precipitation will
not be zero, with strong upper level forcing and cold air advection
aloft should be sufficient for robust stratus/strato-cu layer, and a
few stray light rain showers not out of the question. Temperatures
will be on the cool side Wednesday with highs only reaching into the
mid to upper 50s.

The upper trough will lift to the ne Wednesday night with weak
ridging behind the system acting to suppress the air mass. The
combination of this suppression and the lingering presence of a
surface high and cool temperatures should lead to morning low
temperatures Thursday in the mid 30s and lower 40s. Skies should
make a stronger attempt to clear out Thursday afternoon, but it may
take too long to impact temperatures. Highs Thur afternoon only
expected to reach into the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 pm Update...

Weak high pressure will continue to dominate the region Thur night
through at least Friday night as the next cold core low pressure
system rolls through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Out ahead
of the system strong WAA will take place and push temperatures on
Friday and Saturday into the upper 50s and lower 60s. There are some
differences in the timing of this weekend system with the GFS
being the fastest, bringing in the rain by Friday night, and the
ECMWF being the slowest, not bringing in the precip until Sunday
morning. Either way, the main idea is for the upper trough to the
west to stretch out as it translates ewd and slide through NY/PA and
most of the Northeast very slowly. Could see a prolonged period of
rain, moderate to heavy at times possibly into early next week. Will
need to keep an eye on this system as it evolves through the
upcoming model guidance runs.

Temperatures will see a cooling trend later this week into next week
as well, with highs and lows closer to normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions this evening will quickly degrade late
overnight as rain moves into the terminals. Ceilings will lower
into MVFR territory, with spotty IFR visibilities and ceilings
expected in heavy downpours.

An area of LLWS will also develop overnight, especially from
KAVP up to KELM and KITH.

Surface winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots overnight with
gusts of 30 to 40 knots.


Outlook...

Tuesday evening through Thursday...Occasional restrictions
possible in scattered showers.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR.

Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible in showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for PAZ040-048-072.
     Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ038-039-043-044-
     047.
NY...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for NYZ009-036-037-045-
     046-057-062.
     Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ015>018-022>025-
     044-055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...PCF/TAC
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DJP



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