Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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595
FXUS61 KBGM 190851
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
351 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A mainly dry period is forecast through the weekend along with
moderating temperatures. This weekend, high temperatures will
be mostly in the lower to middle 40s. This is about 10 to 15
degrees above average for this time of year.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
130 AM Update..

Wide range of temperatures and sky conditions attm. To the
southeast 5 to 15 with light to calm winds and clear skies. In
the rest some wind helping to mix the low levels so 15 to 25
degrees. Winds will increase this morning as a short wave moves
through with some clouds. This will bring up temperatures before
sunrise. High temperatures in the low and mid 30s with warm air
advection in the low levels. Flow goes to 280 briefly this
morning into early afternoon bringing some flurries to Syracuse
and Utica, and some light snow showers to the Tug. Flow shifts
back to the WSW this afternoon lifting the lake moisture back
north of Oneida County. Again moisture is shallow, lift is weak,
and the air not cold enough for much more than an inch of snow
today.

Further south it will remain dry with mostly mid clouds. As
usual more clouds to the north and less to the south. Low
temperatures tonight in the 20s with continued waa.

Saturday under a flat upper level ridge. A weak short wave moves
through upstate NY with the low level shifting to be off Lake
Ontario into the Tug Hill Plateau again. Some chance of more
light snow showers and flurries. Highs here in the mid and upper
30s. Like today rest of area will remain dry and partly to
mostly sunny. Temperatures still warmer with highs in the low
and mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 am update...
A quasi-zonal flow aloft with weak ridging at the surface will
keep weather conditions relatively quiet Saturday night and most
of the day Sunday. Heights aloft do not appear to be as high as
previously thought, which also translates to temperatures not
as warm. A weak e-w oriented warm front extending across the srn
Great Lakes from a developing low pressure in the central CONUS
will help focus moisture and weak lift across the region with
temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. May see very
light freezing drizzle Sunday morning...changing to drizzle
during the daylight hours...and then potentially back to
freezing drizzle Sunday evening, mainly in the Mohawk Valley and
the Catskills. The low pressure system moves in from the west
late Monday night along with a better push of warmer air as
ridging out ahead of the system amplifies. This will act to
change the precip over to all rain during the day Monday.
Rainfall amounts are challenging at this point, but the
generally consensus is around a quarter to three quarters of an
inch...up to as much as 1 inch through Monday night.

Temperatures Sunday will start out in the 20s and lower
30s...but warm into the mid and upper 30s. Temps drop back into
the 20s and lower 30s Sunday night and warm up into the 40s on
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
340 am update...
A deep cutoff upper low will be rolling through the srn Great
Lakes and Ohio valley region Monday night and Tuesday with
generally widespread rain expected Monday night and Tue morning
as much of the region will remain situated in the warm sector
during this time. Will begin to see some snow mix in with the
rain Tuesday afternoon as the cold front pushes through some
time during the afternoon/early evening hours. The precipitation
is expected to become all snow fairly quickly Tuesday night with
winds increasing out of the w/nw behind the front. Should see at
least a brief period of significant lake effect snow downwind/se
of Lake Ontario Tue night into Wednesday with weak low level
shear...a relatively deep mixed layer and modest CAA with 850mb
temps around -9 to -13 deg C.

High pressure begins to move in on Thursday with snow showers
tapering off and weather conditions becoming generally quiet.
Temperatures behind the front will remain on the cool side, but
relatively seasonal. Highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s and
lows in the teens and lower 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1230 AM update...

Mid and high clouds are across CNY now will move out by 09z.
More mid clouds will return during the day into tonight, but
VFR is expected to continue in south central NY and AVP through
tonight.

At RME fuel alternate MVFR cigs are expected between 12 and 22Z
as the low level flow shifts to WNW again. This could also move
into SYR with high end MVFR cigs 14 to 19Z. Otherwise a mid deck
is most likely.

Light and variable winds early this morning becoming SW or W at
5 to 10 kts during the day then light SW tonight.

Outlook...

late tonight through Sunday night...Primarily VFR.

Monday through Tuesday...Restrictions likely in primarily light
rain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...TAC



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