Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 270824
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
424 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND LESS HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROF RESIDES IN THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WITH THE LEADING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL SFC
TROF OVER WESTERN PA. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS CNTRL
NY AND NE PA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN
CWA DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS THEN REACH THE CENTRAL CWA
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND FINALLY ERN SECTIONS BY
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING. BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SVR WX TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR 15-20
KNOTS. SHEAR VALUES ARE BEST ACROSS CNTRL NY AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE ACTIVITY NOT REACHING THE EASTERN AREAS
UNTIL LATER TODAY MODELS SUGGEST BETTER INSTABILITY HERE WHICH
MAKES SENSE. CAPE VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND WITH BETTER
SHEAR AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY. THE BEST THREAT
APPEARS ALONG AND EAST OF I81 WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
MAY BE REALIZED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE
HAIL LOOKS LESS LIKELY AS CAPE DEPICTED ON SOUNDINGS IS
TALL/SKINNY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. SINCE
AIRMASS IS REALLY JUICY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75", ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED DRAINAGE FLOODING
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THIS IN THE HWO.

WILL INCREASE POPS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA WHERE MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BY LATE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON REGION SHOULD BE DRY AS
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH NE PA IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS. A COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND PRODUCE A S/SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR. PERIOD WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH MAXES ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST HAS IMPROVED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT
THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION. 12Z GFS
CONTINUES TO PLUNGE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE
ECMWF AND GGEM-NH ARE A BIT MORE RESTRAINED. THEY STILL GET THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MY AREA...BUT WITH A BIT MORE PROBABILITY OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN PA THAN THE GFS. WILL LEAN WITH
THESE SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC SOLUTIONS AS THE GFS IS AGAIN
PROBABLY BREAKING THE PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE DOWN TOO
QUICKLY. HEADING OUT TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CANADIAN GEM IS
THE MOST BULLISH WITH RETURNING THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTED BY A
MODEST UPPER LEVEL WAVE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE MUCH LESS SUPPORTIVE. WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER NY AND NEPA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE SATURDAY COLD FRONT AND
SLOWLY REBOUND INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA EXCEPT FOR KELM AND KAVP AS LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING A LINE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION OVER TO TSRA AND SOME MAY
BECOME SEVERE. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE
BEST SITES TO SEE TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE KBGM AND KAVP.
EXPECT CIRRUS TO FOLLOW BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS THEN LATE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING... FOG MAY DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO PLACE IN TAF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT... THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TSRA MAY CREATE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

.OUTLOOK...

.WED NGT...MVFR VSBY FOG POSSIBLE ALL SITES.
.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...KAH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.