Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 260758
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
358 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front, will move east of the region today, allowing high
pressure, to build in from the upper Midwest. As a result, rain-
free and seasonably warm weather, will be with us through
Saturday. Another frontal system, will approach by later Sunday,
bringing our next chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 am Friday update...A broken line of showers and isolated
thunderstorms continues to push eastward early this morning,
associated with a mid-level short wave, and just in advance of a
weak surface cold front. As the surface boundary continues
eastward today, so will any lingering convection. Thus, we expect
rain-free conditions area-wide after 8-9 am.

As drier air builds in, post-frontal cloud cover will diminish by
later this morning, with mainly sunny skies during the afternoon.

Highs this afternoon will range in the 80s, with less humid
conditions than what we experienced on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
345 am Friday update...Surface high pressure, combined with
ridging aloft, will bring rain-free weather through Saturday
night/early Sunday, under clear-partly cloudy skies. Highs
Saturday will once again range in the 80s.

Late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a developing
southwesterly flow around the back side of departing high
pressure, will begin to bring increased moisture/more humid
conditions back into the forecast area. This moisture, combined
with daytime heating, will destabilize the atmosphere Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening. Also, by that time, another weak
frontal boundary will be approaching from the west, driven by a
progressive northern stream short wave up over Ontario/Quebec.
This combination of instability and some forced lift will increase
the probabilities for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Another storm system will move through southern Ontario province
on Sunday. An associated front will set off scattered
thunderstorms across NY, with a lesser chance over PA, late Sunday
into Monday.

An upper level ridge will transition to a low amplitude trough
over the northeastern states by mid week, bringing unsettled
weather back to our region.

Temperatures will average above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A frontal boundary is slowly moving towards east this morning and
an generating a few light rain showers over the region. These
showers are expected to last for a few more hours than move east
of the region. A mixture of VFR and MVFR cigs are present this
morning across the area. Expect conditions to slowly deteriorate
and fall to fuel alternate or MVFR criteria by 12Z for all sites.
Ceilings will slowly lift Fri morning and become VFR at all sites
by the afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable through sunrise, then transition
to Westerly around 5 to 10 knots through the afternoon, then
become light and variable after sunset.

OUTLOOK...

Friday Night through midday Sunday...VFR except for possible early
morning valley fog KELM.

Late Sunday through Monday...Restrictions possible in
showers/thunderstorms as front passes through.

Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...KAH/MDP


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