Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 220816

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
416 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

A cold front will push through the area this afternoon and
evening triggering strong thunderstorms. A significant severe
weather event is likely with this activity with the primary
threat damaging winds. Pleasant weather will return on Wednesday
with clearing skies and lower humidities.


Conditions this afternoon and evening look favorable for a
significant severe weather event across the area. A deepening
low pressure system over Lake Superior will track northeast
into southern Quebec with its trailing cold front crossing the
area during the mid afternoon through early evening period. The
environment over the region will be favorable for the
development of severe thunderstorms. Deep layer shear values
range from 40-50 knots, 700mb flow is around 50 knots, low,
level helicity is very significant and event is strongly forced
by surface cold front/pre frontal trough. The surface based CAPE
on the NAM ranges from 1500-2500 J/KG although the GFS is
lower. The only lacking ingredient is steep mid level lapse
rates but this will likely be overcome by the strong forcing.
Due to strong mid level flow the primary threat will be damaging
winds although if the NAM CAPE is realized large hail is also
possible. The significant low level helicity is also an
indication of tornado threat. Atmosphere ahead of this boundary
will be very juicy with PWATs close to 2 inches, so any
thunderstorms will contain heavy downpours. The severe weather
threat will end across the region during the mid evening hours.

High temperatures will range in the lower to middle 80s and with
dewpoints near 70 it will feel rather muggy.

Wednesday will be much cooler and dry with lower humidities
under brisk northwest flow. Highs will range in the lower to
middle 70s.


320 PM EDT Update...
By Wed night, the upper-lvl trough will slowly swing across the
region and NW flow at mid-lvls will prevail in the wake of the
a secondary fropa. This NW flow will bring about a 10 degree
temp difference to the region on Wed and as the upper low will
be slow to pass, the chance for precip on Wed will prevail (lake
enhanced, however moisture will be somewhat limited)

NW flow at mid-lvls will continue through the night and CAA will
continue to funnel into the region. This will result in sfc temps
reaching the low 50s/upper 40s by sunrise on Thurs. Thursday
afternoon a more pronounced shortwave trough will dive across
the Great Lakes region and swing across PA/NY Thurs night. This
wave will create an environment conducive for showers to develop
during the day on Thursday. By 06Z Friday, the trough axis will
be east of the region and anti-cyclonic flow aloft will create
strong subsidence and end the chance for precip. The subsidence
will likely cause lingering cloud coverage at the end of the
day to dissipate and cause strong radiational cooling develop,
thus sfc temps are expected to fall into the upper 40s/low 50s
Thurs night.


320 PM EDT Update...
Updated with new WPC guidance...
Minor changes were made from previous forecast...
Anti-cyclonic flow over the northeast combined with amplified
ridging over the western CONUS will result in quiet weather for
the extended forecast. High pressure is expected to prevail over
the region Friday and possibly linger through the weekend which
will result in below seasonal temperatures. This pattern may
prevail through the start of early next week.


Dense fog has already set in at KELM and expect conditions to be
near airport minimums through 10Z then boundary layer mixing
should clear the fog by 12Z. At KAVP, MVFR conditions in
mist/haze will persist until sunrise. Rest of the TAF sites will
remain VFR early this morning with increasing mid/high level
clouds. A strong cold front will cross the region during the mid
afternoon and early evening hours. Strong thunderstorms are
likely along this boundary with severe thunderstorms a
possibility. Included a four hour TEMPO group indicating this
convection at all TAF sites which will generally occur between
19Z-24Z. Following this boundary widespread MVFR conditions will
persist until 06Z due to ceilings and mist.

Winds becoming southwest this morning and increasing to 10-15
knots with gusts 15-25 knots. This evening winds westerly at
10-12 knots.


Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.




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