Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 251136
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
636 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL REMAIN WINDY WITH STEADY OR
FALLING TEMPERATURES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
3 AM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT ALREADY MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. BACK EDGE OF RAIN
FROM RME BGM IPT SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE EAST TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY
12Z. SFC SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 35 MPH NOW AND WILL CONTINUE
ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S EARLIER THIS MORNING ON THE WAY
DOWN AND 30S ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY MIDDAY.

WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WESTERLY FLOW NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY MIGHT GET A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TODAY INTO EVE. WITH THE
COOLING TEMPERATURES SFC AND AT LOW LEVELS RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW. REST OF UPSTATE NEW YORK COULD GET A SPRINKLE OR HIGH
ELEVATION FLURRY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

TONIGHT AN EXPANDING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS. IN ADDITION A RIDGE WILL BE ALOFT. WITH A SW RETURN
FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 40S FRIDAY AND SAT. PLENTY OF
DRY ALOFT SO NO RAIN BUT A WEAK LL INVERSION WILL AGAIN TRAP SOME
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. BEST CHC OF SUN FRIDAY IN NE PA.

THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FRONT MVS THRU AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY, PATTERN BCMS MAINLY ZONAL
THRU END OF THE EXTNDD. CANADIAN HIPRES EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WITH
OCNL LK PCPN AND CLDS FILTERING DOWN ON NRLY FLOW. AIRMASS WL BCM
INCREASINGLY COLD THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. NO MAJOR CHGS
ANTICIPATED TO LONG TERM GRIDS THIS MRNG.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS... INDICATING A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RATHER QUIET EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 50 IN
MANY PLACES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL THEN GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
TO AROUND -10 TO -12 OVER LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY BUT THE FLOW WILL
BE STRONGLY ANTICYCLONIC IMPLYING LOTS OF DRY AIR AND LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL AT A MINIMUM.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF WAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF
OUR AREA WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING SOUTH OF THE MASON- DIXON
LINE. IF THIS PATTERN IS REALIZED... A COOL MOSTLY DRY PERIOD CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED ALL TERMINALS AS OF 12Z AND NOT EXPECTING
ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. LOW
LEVEL STRATUS IS MOVING BACK IN WITH BKN-OVC CIGS EXPECTED THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY. TYPICAL SITES THAT EXPERIENCE MVFR (RME, ITH
AND BGM) WILL LIKELY SEE RESTRICTIONS AFTER 14Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR SYR TO DROP DOWN TO HIGH END MVFR (3KFT) DURING THE DAY UNDER
WESTERLY FLOW. ELM AND AVP WILL EXPERIENCE BKN VFR CIGS. EXPECT
THAT DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 00Z WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.

WINDS FROM THE WSW AT 15-20KTS SUSTAINED AND OCNL GUSTS TO AROUND
30KTS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
10KTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRI/SAT...VFR.

LATE SAT NGT TO SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN-
SNOW.

SUN NGT/MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022-023-025-036-037-044>046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE/PVF
AVIATION...PVF



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