Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 011744
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SKY WILL STAY OVERCAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN IS EXITING THE EASTERN FA THIS MORNING,
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY LEFT BEHIND. GRID UPDATES REFLECT A
PERIOD OF LESS COVERAGE, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FILLING
IN LATER.

4 AM UPDATE...
BATCHES OF RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN BETWEEN.

RAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS HAS BEEN FIGHTING ITS WAY INTO DRY
AIR...BUT IS GRADUALLY WINNING. IT HAS REACHED THE FINGER LAKES TO
TWIN TIERS...AND WILL OVERSPREAD POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK VALLEY
BY DAWN. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH
LAKE ONTARIO TO FAR NORTHER NEW YORK. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH HAS DEEP MOISTURE POOLED WITH IT. WE ARE FIGURING ON
FOUR TO SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH TOTAL RAINFALL...MOST OF IT THROUGH
MAINLY THIS MORNING. WITH COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-FINGER LAKES
WILL MANAGE MID 50S FOR HIGHS...EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE WAVE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SCATTERED MUCH OF
TODAY...YET LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES OF NY COULD RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON...PRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST PA THIS EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD YIELD
A FEW ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS...AS
REFLECTED BY SHOWALTER INDICES GETTING BELOW ZERO IN MOST MODELS.
OTHER THAN THAT...ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRETTY SCATTERED TONIGHT.
THEN...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL APPROACH TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
TO CAUSE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LOW OVER THE LWR GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE
COOL LL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PLENTY
OF CLDS AND PTCHY SHWRS. XPCT LTL CHG IN CONDS AS THE SFC WRM FNT
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS WILL CONT. AFTER DARK AS WE BECOME MORE STABLE...CIGS WILL
LWR AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIG WITH PTCHY DRIZZLE. ATTME
XPCT VSBYS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE. ON MON...ANOTHER WV APRCHS
WHICH WILL INCRS MIXING AND RAISE CIGS...BUT WILL ALSO BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MVFR DUE TO CLD DECKS.

TUE...VFR.

WED-THU...SHWRS MAY BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

FRI...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.