Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 271439
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1039 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A southerly flow of mild air will give the area mostly sunny
skies today along with high temperatures ranging from the middle
70s to lower 80s in most area. The passage of a cold front
overnight will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms with
coverage most widespread from the Finger Lakes region to the
western Mohawk Valley. Dry conditions will return on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Updated at 1030 am... Band of low clouds is holding on
stubbournly across the southern tier of NY and northeast Pa late
this morning. Still expecting these clouds to burn off later
today but have obviously had to move the timing back a few
hours, with clearing for many areas now not expecting until
early to mid afternoon. Meanwhile lots of sunshine late this
morning is being seen over the Finger Lakes including the
Syracuse area where southerly flow is downsloping off of the
higher terrain to the south. Have lowered temperatures by a few
degrees over areas where clouds will hang on longer, from the
southern tier of NY southward. Previous discussion is below.


410 am update...
GOES-16 fog channel shows a stratus deck continuing to back
westward into the region. The stratus currently covers much of
the western Catskills, northeast Pennsylvania and in central New
York from southern Oneida county south across Norwich to the
local Binghamton area. This deck will slowly move westward for
a couple of more hours then once the sun rises progress will
stop and start to mix out from west to east. Areas in southern
Sullivan and Pike counties may stay mostly cloudy for much of
the day.

Surface low pressure in the western Great Lakes will bring a
southerly flow of mild air to the region. Mostly sunny skies and
T925 around 20C will bring high temperatures in the lake plain
into the lower 80s with readings across much of central New York
into the middle to upper 70s. In the far southeast where low
clouds will linger highs will only reach the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...A weakening cold front will move through the region
overnight. Best forcing and moisture with this feature will
reside from the Finger Lakes region to the western Mohawk
Valley. Models indicate some CAPE this evening primarily in the
Finger Lakes region. Soundings show the potential for some
gusty winds with any thunderstorms, mentioned gusty winds in
forecast. Went likely POPS in the northern forecast area and
chance elsewhere. Most of the activity will occur between 8pm
and 2am.

Friday...High pressure will briefly reside over the area on
Friday with dry conditions returning and high temperatures in
the 70s.

Friday night through Saturday night...A strong southeast ridge
develops as a deep upper level trof moves from the four corners
region to the mid west. A wave moving through the central Great
Lakes late Friday night may trigger scattered showers primarily
over the western forecast area after midnight. On Saturday, a
combination of the trailing surface trof as the low lifts into
eastern Canada, diurnal instability and mid level waves in
southwest upper level flow will keep the chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the region. Models indicate instability
primarily in the central/southern forecast area so kept mention
of thunder only here. Highs on Saturday will range from around
70 in the north to around 80 in the Wyoming Valley. Saturday
night may be primarily dry as high pressure in eastern Canada
briefly builds south over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
420 AM EDT Update...
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. The
previous forecast is in great shape. For more information please
read the previous forecast discussion below.

Previous forecast discussion...
Used superblend for this period. All three synoptic models show
a major cyclone tracking northeast through the western Great
Lakes Sunday and Sunday night. A warm front will cross the
region Sunday with a sharp cold front crossing NY and PA Monday
and Monday night. Will keep chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the region on Sunday with mainly showers Sunday night.
Have likely POPS for Showers and thunderstorms on Monday into
Monday evening with the sharp cold front. Then behind this
system it gets chilly with lingering light rain showers Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The stratus deck has managed to develop further west than
previously thought and is dominating NEPA and much of central
NY. This deck is still pushing westward this morning and is
ranging from fuel alternate to IFR. Expect this deck to lift
around 15Z. All taf sites should become VFR by mid morning. A
storm system is expected to move across the region late this
evening and will likely bring TSRA to all taf sites except KAVP.
Light rain showers will likely follow.

Winds will be light and variable for the next couple of hours,
then become S/SE around 8 to 12 knots with gusts around 20
knots.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon and Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Although VFR is likely the majority of
the time, rounds of showers or thunderstorms could bring
occasional restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJN/KAH
AVIATION...KAH


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