Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 240244
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
844 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...Upper trough brought dry and relatively cool wx to
our CWA today. Warming trend will occur Monday and Tuesday as the
trough exits via Montana.  Models move a couple more weak Pacific
troughs across our area Tuesday and Wednesday, slowing the warming
trend, but even those days look a little warmer than normal.  The
troughs will exit east late next week and even hotter weather may
occur in our CWA at that time.  No rain through Friday, but monsoon
moisture may come in from Calif and Oregon Saturday.  Current forecast
is on track.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with mostly clear skies tonight through Sunday.
Expect smoke layers in the central Idaho Mountains northeast of
Idaho City, especially between Lowman and Atlanta. Surface winds
mainly west to northwest less than 12 kts. Winds aloft through 10k
ft msl northwest 10-15 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...The upper level trough
responsible for below normal temperatures today will move east
tonight and Sunday. Heights will increase over the area behind the
trough with warming of the atmosphere in a dry and zonal flow to
start the new week. Daytime highs will be near normal on Sunday
and then climb into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees in the lower
valleys on Monday. Light winds with little or no clouds across the
area, but there will be some smoke over the central mountains
around Lowman due to the Pioneer Fire.

LONG TERM...Monday night through Thursday...Dry, mostly zonal flow
is expected through the period with temperatures 5-10 degrees above
normal (temperatures will reach the upper 90s to 100F in the lower
valleys). High pressure will progressively build over the four
corners region through the period, but will hold off in punching
north into the region for now.

Thursday night through Saturday...Thermal trough sits over the
region during this period with high pressure to our south. Models
are hinting at monsoonal moisture possibly making its way up
north Saturday, but kept forecast dry for now based on low
confidence. Temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above normal
during this time.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...TL
PREV LONG TERM....AB/JC


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