Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 021541
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
941 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS MORNING...APART FROM A FEW
DISSIPATING MID-CLOUDS IN NW BAKER COUNTY...AND A FEW MORE IN
EXTREME SRN HARNEY COUNTY. WE EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE
10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS MORNING...BECOMING EASTERLY 10-20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT SOUTHEASTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-6 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AND
ANOTHER 3-6 DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL AID IN THE WARMING ACROSS THE TREASURE
VALLEY WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE
LOWER 80S. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SE OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF SW
IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND WITH
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF INTO A LARGE UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA BY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REACHING CENTRAL OREGON ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY..THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA WILL BE IMPORTANT TO WATCH
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK COULD BRING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF ARE ALREADY HINTING THAT SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BE
UNDER A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JB



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