Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 100258
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
858 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...AT 03Z SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
DISSIPATING OVER SE OREGON WITH REMAINING CELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD COVERS SW
IDAHO WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS EXITING THE EASTERN BOISE MTNS AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL GUST THROUGH SOUTHERN
HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES WITH SPEEDS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH
05Z. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH AREAS
ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER BEING THE ONLY SPOTS TO SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER
SHOWER/STORM PROBABILITY FOR REST OF THIS EVENING...REMOVING IT
FROM THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASE TO
ISOLATED AND MAINLY OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE MAGIC
VALLEY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND WEST OF A KBNO-KREO LINE THROUGH 06Z.
OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR CWA IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOTS
OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT INSTABILITY IN CHECK.
HOWEVER...CLEARING IS MOVING INTO HARNEY COUNTY AND WE STILL
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THEREFORE THE FIRE WEATHER WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS MALHEUR COUNTY AND
INTO SW IDAHO NORTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER AS OF 2 PM MDT. THESE
SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP FURTHER AND BECOME
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WE EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED IN SW IDAHO.

TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT WARMED AS RAPIDLY TODAY AS IN RECENT DAYS
OWING TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL CHANGE TOMORROW WHEN
CLOUDS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AND TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 90S OVER MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SIMILAR TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER
SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER THU AND FRI AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
FOCUS INSTABILITY IN THAT GENERAL REGION. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME
OF YEAR...EACH MODEL RUN SEEMS TO FOCUS IN ON A DIFFERENT
MESOSCALE AREA...SO WE ARE SIMPLY PAINTING IN THE MOST LIKELY
AREAS WITH MENTIONABLE LEVELS OF POP. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS...BUT NOT QUITE AS MILD AS THIS PAST
MORNING. STILL...READINGS WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST FRIDAY LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT DRAGGING MOISTURE FROM THE NEVADA BORDER NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINES WITH A DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
ANOTHER LOW AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK UPPER JET ACROSS MID PACIFIC
REPLACES FRIDAY/S LOW BY MONDAY MORNING WHICH AGAIN DRAGS LIMITED
MOISTURE ACROSS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE PUSHING AN INCH SO COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ636.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....CR/WH



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