Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 041556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE FAR SOUTH...NEAR THE
NV BORDER. MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE AFTER 6 PM. ONLY CHANGE
HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE FAR SOUTH
FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATE
OUT SHORTLY.

CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE VERY DRY. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL FIRES STARTED ACCIDENTALLY FROM FIREWORKS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION WITH ANY FIREWORKS YOU DECIDE
TO USE...OR CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF ENJOYING PUBLIC FIREWORK
DISPLAYS INSTEAD THIS YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY WESTERLY 5-10KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

SUNDAY...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF HARNEY
AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RE-FIRE ALONG THE NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN BE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
FOLLOW FOR THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH FOR OUTFLOW
WINDS ENTERING THE SNAKE VALLEY SHOULD STORMS APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE. TEMPERATURES ARE 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE GIVES UP GROUND TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
INTO SE IDAHO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...OTHERWISE THE REGION
REMAINS DRY. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
U.S-CANADIAN BORDER. PASSAGE OF TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL ID MTNS AND INCREASE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS WHILE KEEPING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE OR/NV AND ID/NV BORDER. WITH COOLING
ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES COOL 4-8 DEGREES
FROM TODAY/S HIGHS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE
ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE GREAT BASIN. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY
AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY. EXPECT
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST BRINGING
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEYOND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....KA


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