Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 150245
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER THROUGH MONDAY
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WARMING. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90F IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OREGON
/INCLUDING HARNEY COUNTY/ LATE IN THE DAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...EXCEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORM OVER HARNEY COUNTY INCLUDING KBNO ON MONDAY. SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST
10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER SW ID THROUGH MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE SEEN IN SATIMG ACROSS E NV TO BRING NO MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS SW IDAHO TONIGHT UNLESS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS MORE
THAN EXPECTED. INCREASING SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY AN IMPULSE IN THE S FLOW /SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OFF
THE CENTRAL CA COAST/ WILL LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS SW TO NE OREGON. THE 18Z NAM RUN EVEN MODELS SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS BURNS/VALE BLM 06Z-18Z TUESDAY. THE 18Z NAM 0-3KM MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE FOR 12Z TUESDAY IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WENT AHEAD
AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE
OREGON LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE EXITING EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SW FLOW WILL LEAVE ENOUGH STABILITY AND
WARM AIR ACROSS THE AREA FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN LOWER VALLEYS WILL HEAT UP INTO THE LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS ALL SHOW A BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHWESTERN
IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JB



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