Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 280245

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
845 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Convective activity has moved east and the area is
clearing out. Gusty winds earlier this afternoon are also
beginning to decrease. Dry and calm conditions should continue
through tomorrow morning. The current forecast reflects current
and expected conditions, so no updated will be needed this


.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear skies. Surface winds: W to NW 5-15kt
becoming variable 10kt or less after sunset. Winds aloft at 10KFT
MSL: W to NW 10-20kt.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...Northwest flow aloft will
back to westerly tomorrow and remain more or less westerly on
Sunday as a weak trough passes by. As of 230 PM MDT, isolated
showers and thunderstorms were moving northeast across northeast
Valley County, extreme southeast Owyhee County, and southern Twin
Falls County. This activity will move out of the CWA early this
evening and leave us with mostly clear skies overnight. In the
wake of a cold front that moved through last night and earlier
today, we will see low temps tonight 5 to 10 degrees below normal
in most areas. Saturday will be dry with highs about 5 degrees
below normal, and Sunday morning will be dry with lows close to
normal. A weak upper level trough will move through the zonal flow
Sunday and bring showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms to
the northern mountains, but most folks will remain dry. Temps will
warm up to around 5 degrees above normal - reaching the lower 80s
in the Treasure Valley and the lower elevations of southeast

LONG TERM...Sunday night through Wednesday...Northwest flow
aloft behind a departing trough will bring a brief cool-down to
the region Monday, and result in near normal temperatures. Showers
will end late Monday morning in eastern Valley County and we will
be dry from then through Wed as a substantial ridge builds in
aloft. Temperatures will warm rapidly Tue and near 80 in
the lower elevations Tue and into the mid 80s, which is around 10
degrees above normal, on Wed.

Wednesday night through Friday...Ridge axis still over the area
causing dry conditions and high temperatures in the low 90s,
which is around 15 degrees above normal. Models start to hint at
the next upper level trough starting to make its way inland by
Thursday night. Models differ on timing of this next system so
confidence with the breakdown of this ridge is low at this time,
but stuck with the slight chance of precipitation for higher
elevations starting Friday afternoon.





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