Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 030312
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
912 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS
ANTICIPATED...WITH ITS CURRENT LOCATION BEING JUST EAST OF
MOUNTAIN HOME AND MOVING ESE. NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BULK OF ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIFTING NORTH OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN HERE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST...AS CONDITIONS LOOK IN LINE WITH
THE CURRENT GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. LOCALLY GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS TRAILING A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY 06Z WITH STEADY NW WINDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED BY MID-LEVEL
CEILINGS ACROSS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL PERSIST
OVER W-CENTRAL ID MTNS THROUGH THURSDAY.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...LOW VFR AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS TO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING CLOUDS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON...EAST OF BAKER CITY BUT JUST
WEST OF BURNS. THE FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 MPH THIS AFT-EVE WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SLOW-MOVING NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LAG
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REACH PORTIONS OF SE OREGON AND FAR NORTH
PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT-THURSDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. AN UPPER
LOW IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DIVE SOUTH...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON BY THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
IDAHO. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL ON FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH TO
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THURSDAY/S HIGHS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSEASONABLY COOL
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TREK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CENTER OF THE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND VALLEY AMOUNTS UP TO 0.20 IN. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 8000 FT MSL IN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH THE HIGHEST PEAKS RECEIVING SNOW. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
SLOWLY WARMING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/WH


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