Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 291845
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 244 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT AND RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON TREND TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND CLOUDIER
SOUTH AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION, THOUGH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BTV
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TO
OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE RESULT
WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. COULD SEE
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS PUSH ABOVE 50 AREA-WIDE WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN BEGINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING
CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING
PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF
THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS
SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING.

DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL
RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE
THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND
RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME
LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH FEW-SCT CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON,
THICKENING JUST A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING AFTER
12Z SATURDAY. ONLY SPOT WHERE CLOUDS LOWER A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE CIGS WILL GO BELOW 10KFT,
BUT REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN W/INTERVALS
OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF



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