Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 230048
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
748 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect above normal temperatures...on the order of 15 to 25
degrees warmer...to continue right through Saturday. Saturday
will be the warmest day with highs in the 50s to around 60 and
these temperatures could set new record highs. The above normal
temperatures will lead to increased snowmelt and runoff and
increase the potential for ice jams and river flooding.
Widespread rain later Saturday into Saturday night could further
enhance the potential for flooding across parts of the North
Country.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 611 PM EST Wednesday... The diurnal cumulus clouds have
started to dissipate based on latest obs and satellite imagery
so I lowered our sky cover forecast for the next couple of hours
but there upstream obs do show that some low and mid level
clouds will build back into the region overnight so the updates
were largely cosmetic. Upstream locations are also seeing some
fog and low stratus resulting from the warm air over a moist
snow pack. With the melting that occurred already and temps not
likely to drop below freezing the idea of patchy fog looks like
it should play out well. Lows will generally be in the mid 30s
to mid 40s. Any precipitation overnight will be rather spotty
and generally confined to parts of northern New York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 PM EST Wednesday...Forecast remains on track for
above normal temperatures...both daytime and nighttime
temperatures. This will lead to ice breakup in the
rivers...especially northeast New York and areas along and north
of Route 2 in Vermont where river ice still prevails. High
temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 40s to upper
50s...but mid 40s to lower 50s on Friday. Either way both days
are still above normal. Upper trough passing north of the area
will keep main forcing north of the border...but we could still
see some light rain showers. Looking at rainfall amounts less
than a tenth of an inch on Thursday. Warm front will be to our
southwest on Friday and will eventually push up into the region
late Friday into Friday and lift north of the border by early
Saturday. Could be some showers with this front...but again not
a lot of precipitation...generally less than two tenths of an
inch. These temperatures should still promote snowmelt/runoff
and we should begin to see 1 to 3 foot rises on rivers late
Thursday into Thursday night...but most of the mainstem rivers
are starting off low and should be able to handle the increase.
Further rises are expected on Friday...but the greatest concern
will come on Saturday when even warmer temperatures and
widespread rain eventually moves in.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 326 PM EST Wednesday...On Saturday we will be in the warm
sector ahead of approaching cold front. Strong southwesterly
return flow will be in place as low pressure system moves from
the Great Lakes region north of our CWA later Saturday and
Saturday night. 850 temps will reach about 10 C on Saturday, max
temps will be in the mid 50s to around 60. Strong cold front
pushes west to east across our forecast area Saturday night.
Have high pops mentioned from 18z Saturday through 06z Sunday.
Moderate rain is expected area wide. Storm total QPF will range
from about half an inch to around an inch. See hydrology section
for ice jam concerns. Strong cold air advection behind cold
front will keep temperatures on Sunday closer to seasonal
normals, mainly 30s across the area. Sunday afternoon through
Monday afternoon will feature quieter and more seasonable
weather with a ridge of surface high pressure briefly over the
area. By Monday evening a weaker low pressure system will pass
to our south and bring just a chance for some rain and snow
showers. Towards the middle of the week temperatures will warm
back above seasonal normals and a quieter weather pattern
develops. Both GFS and ECMWF indicate a large scale system for
the second half of the work week to impact the north country,
looks very similar to Saturday`s system with rain and then snow.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 00Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through the
period. Satellite loop showing some low clouds moving east
across northern New York at this time. Expecting ceilings to
lower overnight, as suggested by forecast Bufkit soundings. RAP
model sugeesting mainly low clouds over the region overnight and
not much in the way of fog. Thus, have opted to go more with a
lower cloud deck than fog overnight at the TAF sites. Guidance
hinting at some southerly surface wind gusts at or above 20
knots during the day on Thursday, so have some developing
between 13Z to 15Z on Thursday.

Outlook 00Z Friday through Monday... Additional fog/BR possible
Thursday Night into Friday...as weak backdoor front results in
a wind shift to the north. Very gusty southerly winds
develop...along with a line of showers with embedded heavier
rainfall for Sat. Localized areas of turbulence and shear
likely...along with MVFR conditions in the heavier showers. Rain
transitions to mountain snow showers with lingering IFR vis
possible at SLK/MPV Sat night into Sunday. MVFR possible again
on Monday with more showers in the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 326 PM EST Wednesday...Temperatures Thursday through
Saturday will be 15 to 25 degrees above normal...both during the
day and into the night. This will continue to support the
breakup of river ice and increase the potential for ice jams.
Rivers with ice still in them are mainly over northeast New York
and the northern third of Vermont...generally north of Route 2.
We will see some light showers Thursday and Friday...but
amounts should not have much of an impact. The above normal
temperatures will contribute to snowmelt/runoff and we should
see noticeable rises Thursday and Friday...1 to 3 foot rises on
Thursday...but rivers are starting off low and should be able to
handle these initial rises. Main concern will likely be on
Saturday and into Saturday night when record/near record high
temperatures further increase snowmelt/runoff and widespread
rain moves in with at least a half to one inch of rain expected.
Sharp rises will likely occur during this period and greatest
ice jam/river flooding potential should be during this time
period.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Deal
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...WGH/Neiles
HYDROLOGY...Evenson


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