Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 102002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
NORTHEAST RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHALLOW CUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY
THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
FRIDAY...THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD...WITH
INCREASING CHCS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. SFC HIGH PRES PRES WL
MOVE OFF THE ENGLAND COAST LINE ON SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WARM FRNT
FEATURE LIFTING ACRS OUR CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
MID LVL MOISTURE...AND 5H VORT ALOFT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA...WL
PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LIMITED...DUE TO THE LACK OF WARM SFC
DWPTS AND CLOUDS LIMITING SFC HEATING. AS WARM FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF
OUR CWA BY MONDAY...PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 14-16C AND LLVL
DWPTS WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F...RESULTING IN GREATER
INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO IF ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING S/W ENERGY...THEY COULD BE STRONG ON
MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. WL CONT WITH LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AND TAPER TO
SCHC SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT
DEVELOPS BEFORE 1ST PIECE OF ENERGY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
70S MTNS AND NEAR 80F IN THE VALLEYS SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY 80S ON
MONDAY...WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS LIKELY. ON TUESDAY...DEEP MID/UPPER
LVL TROF DIGS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE POTENT 5H VORTS LIFTS
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SLV. THIS ENERGY
ALOFT...COMBINED INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PARAMETERS
OF 50 TO 70 KNOTS...INTERACTING WITH SOME INSTABILITY WL PRODUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON TUES. THIS EVENT
CONTS TO LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH A VERY
DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH STRONG SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SFC LOW PRES TRACKS TO OUR
SOUTH AND LIMITS OUR INSTABILITY...PER GEM SOLUTION OR MID LVL
MOISTURE KEEPS SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY LIMITED...AND THREAT
FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ARRIVES BY WEDS INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION HAS BROUGHT
FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS...AND WILL BRING SKC TONIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME MVFR BR AT MPV/SLK/RUT FROM
08-12Z. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION. BUFKIT IS ALSO NOT INDICATING ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOCALIZED EARLY
MORNING FOG/BR POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

12Z SUN - 00Z WED...VFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES







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