Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 250304
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1104 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A quiet night is expected across the North Country tonight with
no precipitation and little in the way of cloud cover.
Conditions will change on Tuesday as a southerly flow brings
moisture into the region...first with increasing clouds...then
precipitation during the afternoon Tuesday and continuing
Tuesday night. The showers will taper off on Wednesday with
warmer and drier conditions developing Thursday into Friday.
Showers may return late in the day on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1058 PM EDT Monday...Forecast remains in good shape with
cloud cover just beginning to move into the southern counties of
Vermont. The bulk of the rainfall still looks to arrive shortly
after day break and so I continued the trend of slowing down how
quickly we ramped up the rain chance overnight. With easterly
winds tomorrow expect it to be quite chilly over south and
eastern Vermont as the source air will be coming from the
Atlantic where the water temps are still quite chilly for late
April. Previous discussion follows:

Return moist flow from High pressure to our north and the surface
low will bring in showers to the region in a few waves on Tuesday.
It will be a cool, damp raw especially across eastern and southern
VT with a good easterly maritime flow. There will be a first wave of
scattered light showers with the initial first surge of
moisture and then as we get caught into the inverted trof from
the coastal low a bit more numerous or pronounce showers
Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 359 AM EDT Monday...Surface/Stacked low eventually departs
with best chance of showers across central-eastern VT during
Wednesday, decreasing in coverage during Wednesday. Slow
clearing from west to east Wednesday night, likely holding off
til Thursday for much of VT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 331 PM EDT Monday...Rain showers associated with coastal
low pressure will exit east and strong southerly flow will
affect the North Country Thursday. Some lingering clouds may
limit warming over eastern Vermont, but generally expect
temperatures in the 70s and in the mid 70s to around 80 in the
St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys.

Cooling trend starts with the next chance for rain late
Thursday night into early Friday as surface low pressure moves
from the central Great Lakes region northwestward towards James
Bay Friday morning. Possible cold front or pre-frontal trough
associated with this system could bring convective activity on
Friday. Lots of disparity amongst model guidance with this
system and further into the weekend. Commonalities exist with
blocking Bermuda high developing at the surface, which brings a
moisture plume from the Gulf toward the Northeast. This could
bring another chance for precip on Saturday as the GFS and ECMWF
have energy at 500mb moving from SW towards southern Quebec.
This is reflected at the surface as a cold front with northerly
flow setting up in the front`s wake.

On Sunday, Canadian high pressure centered around James Bay
will retreat north and east as strengthening closed surface low
moves up the Mississippi Valley reaching the Great Lakes by
Monday morning. A warm front ahead of the low looks to bring
more showers late Sunday. GFS and ECMWF in better agreement with
regards to this system. Still differences on track, strength,
etc. Overall expect this system to be capable of producing heavy
rainfall as moisture from the Gulf rides up the ahead of the
cold front and strong winds possible from tight pressure
gradient and strengthening of low. The surface low pressure
center looks to track to our north and west towards Hudsons Bay
sometime on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions through 12z with little
in the way of any cloud cover. After 12z clouds will be
increasing and ceilings will lower into the MVFR/VFR categories
after 18z. IFR ceilings will be possible at KRUT by the end of
the period. Rain will spread from south to north across the
area...mainly after 18z and visibilities will generally be in
the MVFR and VFR categories. Winds will be from the north and
northeast tonight...but becomes more east and southeast on
Tuesday with gusts in the 15 to 25 knot range after 18z Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: MVFR/VFR. Breezy. SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA early.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Evenson/SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Evenson/SLW


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