Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 271803
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
203 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will be the rule across the North Country
right through the entire Memorial Day weekend. High temperatures
will be on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this
time of year. In addition...higher dew points will lead to more
humid conditions and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will
exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 203 PM EDT Friday...Isolated showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms have developed across the southern third of the
forecast area. Expect potential for showers and isolated
thunderstorms to continue through the rest of this afternoon, but
with dewpoints barely in the 60s and lack of forcing, expect
showers to be primarily contains to central and southern Vermont
the rest of the afternoon. Showers will diminish after sunset as
nocturnal cooling begins to settle in.

Temperatures in the upper 80s and some areas around 90 to low 90s
with southerly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 423 AM EDT Friday...saturday and saturday night will be
mainly dry and warm with large upper level ridge over the area as
well as high pressure at the surface. temperatures will be almost
twenty degrees warmer than normal for maximum temperatures as they
nudge 90 in the warmest spots. on sunday upper level ridge will
finally begin to slide eastward away from our area...upper level
trof will approach from the great lakes region. upper level
shortwaves move into our area and showers will become likely by
the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 423 AM EDT Friday...sunday night into monday a cold front
will approach from the great lakes region with a low lifting well
north of our area. cold front will move across the area during the
daytime hours and showers will be likely for monday. then upper
level flow will become more flat and westerly and a ridge of
surface high pressure builds into the north country. drier warm
weather will continue from tuesday through thursday. next chance
for showers will be friday as another cold front approaches from
the west.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Generally VFR conditions expected this
afternoon and evening. Isolated showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms will mainly affect central and southern Vermont this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have been short-lived, but
greatest potential of TAF sites being affected will be KMPV/KRUT.
MVFR/IFR fog development possible mainly at KMSS/KSLK after
06z/Saturday. Otherwise, Saturday will start with mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies. There`s the potential for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms to develop. Areas with the greatest chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be the Adirondacks, southern
Champlain Valley into South-Central Vermont.

Outlook 18Z Saturday through Wednesday...
Mainly VFR with a daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to
occur in the Sunday and Monday time frame. Best chance for a dry
day will be Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Friday and Saturday will see the warmest temperatures of 2016
thus far. The average first date of 90F or higher for Burlington
VT is June 20th. The earliest occurrence in the calendar year of
90F was April 17, 2002.

Record maximum temperatures for Friday 5/27 and Saturday 5/28 are as
follows:                   5/27         5/28
BTV - Burlington        91 in 1944    92 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1960    88 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    89 in 1978
St Johnsbury            89 in 1914    93 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            76 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...KGM
CLIMATE...KGM



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