Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 070104
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
804 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY
TONIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ARCTIC AIR SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THE BULK OF
THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE
LARGELY DRY ELSEWHERE WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW
SHOWER. THE CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE CENTERING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. A THIN MOISTURE PROFILE AND THE PROGRESSIVE SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LIMIT SNOW TO ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH THAT HIGHER
TOTAL FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOOSTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...RIPPLING THROUGH
A MEAN WEST TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE JUST AN INCH OR LESS...WHILE UP TO
TWO INCHES ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND THE SOUTHERN TUG
HILL PLATEAU.

ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL TRAVEL THROUGH A FLATTENING LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTCOAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THOUGH
WEAK...THESE FEATURES COULD GENERATE A SHOWER OR TWO OF SNOW EACH
DAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES POPS FOR THESE FEATURES BOTH DAYS...WITH
OVER SNOW ACCUMULATION EACH DAY LIKELY TO BE AN INCH OR LESS.

WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE EXTREME. HIGHS
SUNDAY AROUND FREEZING WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO PUSH OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEYS
OF SW NYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR A
PACIFIC FLOW...AS OPPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR THAT
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WINTER. TWO START THIS TIME PERIOD
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE WITHIN
THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET A STORM WILL BE CROSSING TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS CANADA. BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO START THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF DISPLAY DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF A SURGE OF COLDER AIR WED-THUR WITH THE GFS QUICKER AND
FARTHER WESTWARD THAN THE ECMWF. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST WED-THUR...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR A SMALL PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AT SOME
POINT IN TIME.

THE COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED OVER THE REGION AS WARMER AIR AND
FLAT RIDGING FROM THE WEST RETURNS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SURGE IN COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH SENDS TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE LOW 30S ON THURSDAY. WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY BITTER
COLD NIGHTS...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT MID WEEK ONLY IN THE TEENS TO
MID 20S. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND WILL
AGAIN LIKELY RISE TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 09Z. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS... MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AFTER 15Z SAT.  SNOW
SHOWERS WITH CIGS 2-3K FEET AND VSBY 5-6SM SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST 15-18Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE
EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 10-20KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER ANY WAVE ACTION SHOULD BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO CANADIAN WATERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE LAKES
SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.