Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 230617
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
217 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL GIVE US
ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FINE EARLY FALL WEATHER...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION...HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS A LARGE SWATH OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC PROVINCES PIVOTS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EASTWARD TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
GREATER AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT.
MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL
ALSO BE FOUND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOWER
TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH DEWPOINTS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40
HELPING TO PRECLUDE ANY REAL FROST THREAT.

ON TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND A RETURN TO 850MB TEMPS
NEAR +6C TO +8C. SOME LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
STREAK WILL STILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 EXCEPT ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE
THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 50S..

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD...WE OPEN WITH A
STOUT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WITH A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
FEATURING RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TWO WEAK TROUGHS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST COAST RESPECTIVELY. MODELS ARE IN
SOLID AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN OVER THE COMING WEEK...AMPLIFYING THE WEST COAST RIDGE IN
RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM FORCING AND SPILLING IT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IN TURN CUTS OFF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS...CAUSING IT TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME THE INVERTED TROUGH
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SLIDES NORTHEAST ALONG AND OFF THE EAST
COAST...LEAVING THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTACT AND IN FACT
LEADING TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF A MASSIVE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION BY WEEK`S END...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE INSIGNIFICANT CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

THROUGHOUT THIS NATION-WIDE PATTERN CHANGE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WILL REMAIN PLANTED FIRMLY UNDERNEATH A SHIFTING BUT
PERSISTENT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AT
LEAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S DURING THE DAY
WITH COOL...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS FEATURING LOWS IN THE 40S INLAND
RANGING TO THE 50S NEAR THE LAKES. THE CLEAR COOL AUTUMN NIGHTS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF RADIATION FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL ON SATURDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF OF THE EAST
COAST...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL PRODUCE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA...POTENTIALLY
PUSHING A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT TO THE THRESHOLD OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CONSEQUENTLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS
INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT LATER NEXT WEEK AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE...BUT
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN BRINGS A DEEP TROUGH TO THE CENTRAL U.S.
RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM...BUT POSSIBLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION...HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS A LARGE SWATH OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC PROVINCES PIVOTS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH
SOME PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN TIER.

AFTER ANY SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG MIXES OUT BY MID MORNING...THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE A GRADUAL SOUTHWEST-
TO-NORTHEAST EROSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER AS THE
RESPONSIBLE JET STREAK PULLS AWAY FROM OUR REGION...AND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP ON THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. LATER TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY IFR VALLEY
FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR IN
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO EAST OF HAMLIN BEACH...AFTER
WHICH TIME WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY...THEN WILL LINGER IN PLACE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/SMITH






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