Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCHS 260147
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...NUDGED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN 1-2
DEGREES PER GOING THERMAL TRENDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-16 WHERE
TEMPS WERE RUNNING ABOUT 4-6 DEGS COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT-CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE SOLID RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ATOP THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY INDUCE WEAK LEE-SIDE TOUGHING ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS LATE...BUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION LOOKS TOO STRONG TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT RECOUPING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO SHOW SOME SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY CHILLIER AREAS...BUT
THE GENERAL FLAVOR OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S AT THE
COAST WITH UPPER 50S-AROUND 60 ALONG THE BEACHES...DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND AROUND THE SANTEE LAKES...INCLUDING PINOPOLIS. ITS
INTERESTING TO SEE THAT MONKS CORNER DROPPED TO 46 THIS MORNING
WHILE PINOPOLIS JUST A FEW MILES AWAY ONLY DROPPED TO 59--A
TESTAMENT TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE WATERS OF LAKE
MOULTIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 80S EXPECTED
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COOLING
TEMPERATURES DOWN AT THE BEACHES BY SEVERAL DEGREES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1 INCH...KEEPING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT
BAY. ONLY POTENTIAL WEATHER PROBLEM WILL BE MORNING FOG...WHICH
COULD BECOME DENSE IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
INCREASE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED VALUES OF MID 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 AT THE COAST. CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A NICE SURFACE INVERSION TO SET UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER TROUGH...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TREND IS TOWARD A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG...
MAINLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS LOOK TO GO NO
HIGHER THAN 10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




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