Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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564
FXUS62 KCHS 010136
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
936 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnant low pressure of Bonnie will continue to slowly move
northeastward away from the region through Wednesday night. A weak
cold front could then approach the region late in the week and
become stationary this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Evening update: Strong thunderstorms currently north of our area
are moving southward. Increased POPs for northern Screven,
Allendale, Hampton, and northern Colleton counties to account for
the storms moving into these areas. We will need to keep an eye on
the southward moving outflow boundaries from these storms and how
it interacts with the northward moving sea breeze. It`s possible
thunderstorms could initiate where these boundaries interact,
which may be around Hampton County. There remains plenty of
instability in this area along with high DCAPES. The main threat
would be strong and possibly damaging winds.

Otherwise, the remnant low that was once TS Bonnie just offshore
near the SC/NC border will continue to move northeast away from
the area while a lingering trough stretches southward off the SC
coast and then west into Georgia. There could be some fog toward
daybreak Wednesday, but uncertainty is high enough that we chose
to not mention it in the current forecast. Lows should be around
70 degrees in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday through Friday: The overall pattern will remain
essentially unchanged in the mid to late week time period. Aloft,
subtle ridging will become more prominent late in the week as an
upper low develops across the southern plains. At the surface, very
weak high pressure will settle in just offshore and extend westward
into the forecast area. Overall, the result will be a somewhat
typical early June pattern featuring scattered diurnal convection.
The severe threat will be low each day thanks to the lack of any
significant large scale forcing and unimpressive severe parameters
noted in model soundings. However, we can never totally discount the
potential for an isolated strong to severe storm, especially where
boundary interactions occur. Highs are forecast to be in the upper
80s to low 90s with overnight lows around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models in pretty good agreement through the long term period. Weak
front stalled over the region will likely dissipate over the weekend,
before another cold front approaches and crosses the area early
next week. Typical diurnal convection expected, with perhaps
greater coverage Sunday and Monday with the front in the vicinity.
Tuesday looks to be the driest day of the period as the bulk of
precipitation associated with the front shifts offshore and high
pressure begins to build in from the northwest. Temperatures
mainly near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR. There is a small risk of low ceilings and/or fog
late tonight, which could bring MVFR, or maybe even brief IFR.
Confidence is not yet high enough to include in either TAF.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Low risk for flight
restrictions from mainly afternoon showers/thunderstorms and early
morning fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Winds will generally be 10 kt or less through sunrise
Wednesday while seas should be 2 to 3 ft.

Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure will gradually set up just
east of the local waters on Wednesday and will remain in place into
the weekend. This will promote persistent southerly flow through
Friday that will be less than 15 kt. Pressure gradient will begin to
tighten over the weekend as the coastal waters become sandwiched
between high pressure to the east and an approaching front to the
west. South/southwest winds will increase as a result, but
conditions are still expected to stay well below small craft
advisory criteria. Seas are expected to remain in the 1 to 3 ft
range through the period.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH/RJB
MARINE...



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