Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 292109
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
309 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FEATURE OF SHORT
TERM FORECAST IS COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. TIMING OF
THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
DECREASE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURE MUCH
COOLER...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE SHALLOW FRONT
SHOULD BACK INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
IN WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE PROFILE MOISTENS. PWAT
VALUES BACK ABOVE 1 INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
PLENTIFUL MSTR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POPS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 30-50 PCT RANGE THROUGHOUT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MILD EVEN WITH THE LACK OF SUNSHINE SO OUTSIDE
OF THE SHOWERS IT WON`T BE A TERRIBLE WEEKEND WEATHER WISE. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT PRECEDED BY A PERIOD OF
PRETTY STRONG WINDS. LIKELY WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVSRY CONDS LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY
RELAXES. MONDAY THEN LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER DAY
UNDER HIPRES.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY THAT A RELATIVELY VIGOROUS UPPER SYS
WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA ACRS THE REGION SOMETIME FROM MON
NGT THRU WED.  THESE BAJA CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY POORLY HANDLED
BY THE MODELS BUT THE RECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DOES GIVE ME THE
CONFIDENCE TO START PUSHING POPS BACK UP - ESPLY TUE.  WON`T GO ALL
IN JUST YET AND KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE.  OTHW THE HPC/MEX
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY DECENT AND DID NOT STRAY FAR.  DEPENDING ON WHEN
THE BAJA SYS ACTUALLY CLEARS THE AREA WE LOOK TO TRANSITION BACK
INTO A DRIER AND COOL REGIME FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  62  54  70  60  /  10  10  10  40  40
VICTORIA          51  61  48  64  56  /  10  10  10  50  50
LAREDO            56  65  55  71  58  /  10  20  30  40  40
ALICE             55  63  53  71  59  /  10  10  20  40  40
ROCKPORT          55  60  54  66  58  /  10  10  10  40  50
COTULLA           52  63  51  66  56  /  10  10  30  50  50
KINGSVILLE        56  64  55  72  60  /  10  10  10  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       56  61  56  69  59  /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM





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