Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 210002 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
702 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT
ALI/CRP/VCT WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED AT LRD INTO THE EVENING
AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT MOSTLY A VFR FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A WINDOW WILL EXIST TOWARDS MORNING AT
ALI/VCT/LRD FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN BY 15Z AS S TO SE WINDS INCREASE. BREEZY WINDS ANTICIPATED
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...AS THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVED INTO COAST...ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...ISOLATED CONVECTION FINALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
BY THIS EVENING BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...UP TO 35-40 KNOTS. THIS
WILL ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. WILL SHOW DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE NEAR 110 DEGREES AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAINS.

MARINE...THERMAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS. WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS...MAYBE DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER TEMPS DUE TO UPWELLING ALONG THE COAST. BUT SHOULD SEE THE
WINDS COME CLOSE TO SCA FOR THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS AND WILL KEEP IN
THE SCA AT THIS TIME. SCEC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR REST OF THE
MARINE ZONES THIS EVENING WITH A DECREASE FOR THE BAYS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE REPEAT OCCURRENCE ON THURSDAY WITH MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING.

FIRE WEATHER...MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS DUE TO GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING FOR WEBB COUNTY. WITH DRIER AIR
PUSHING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...EXPECT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND WILL INCLUDE LA SALLE
COUNTY WITH WEBB COUNTY IN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY PM.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE SUBTROPICAL RDG AXIS WL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WX THROUGH THE FCST PD. IT WL SHIFT SLOWLY
NEWD THROUGH THE FCST PD. THIS WL ALLOW A BIT DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW
AND THUS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE TO DEVELOP FROM MONDAY
ONWARD. WL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME.  WL KEEP THE FIRST PART OF THE FCST DRY AS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTING DRY AIR WL KEEP PCPN POTENTIAL SLIM TO
NONE. WL ESSENTIALLY MAINTAIN PERSISTENT TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SOLNS FOR INVEST AL96 HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
RIGHT WITH EACH RUN AND SPEED IT UP.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING
ON A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RDG
AXIS DUE TO A BAGGY TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  OF
COURSE IT IS STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CONSIDERABLE CERTAINTY
WHAT ITS EVENTUAL TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE. HOWEVER FOR
NOW WL GO ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLNS AND KEEP THE IMPACTS CLOSE
TO NIL FOR OUR CWA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  97  80  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79 100  78 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            82 105  81 105  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             78 102  78 101  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          83  94  82  93  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 103  77 103  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        79  99  78 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  93  81  93  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WEBB.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.