Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 182344
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
644 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the 00z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR this evening will transition to a mixture of VFR/MVFR
ceilings overnight, along with patchy/areas of MVFR visibilities
generally west of U.S. 77. Isolated to scattered showers will
develop over the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads during the
early/mid morning Thursday and continue through the afternoon.
Expect precipitation to be confined generally east of U.S. 281.
Isolated thunderstorms are anticipted over portions of the Coastal
Bend/Victoria Crossroads Thursday afternoon. Generally light E/NE
wind over South Texas will occur overnight/early Thursday,
followed by increasing onshore flow Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

The last really nice evening is upon us. Not to sound all
pessimistic but seriously from this point through the weekend we
will be building up the heat and humidity once again as onshore flow
strengthens. We already are seeing dewpoints 10-15 degrees warmer
than 24 hours ago.

Overnight winds will rather light with mostly clear skies, to start.
Low-level flow will draw in Gulf moisture throughout the night which
will allow for some patchy lower clouds to develop. Radiational
cooling ahead of this should allow for near saturation of some of
the inland areas leading to the development of patchy fog, mostly in
our fog belt region. The depth of the moisture remain rather limited
through late Thursday morning so we should be able to lift/burn off
the fog rather quickly.

Shortwave trough now just south of the Big Bend area is already
starting to throw some higher clouds into parts of West Texas.
Moisture surging in from the east, over the Gulf, will combine with
the larger scale lift of this shortwave late tonight to produce
isolated to scattered showers. Showers should progress towards the
coast through the morning hours on the nose of the higher PWATs
traversing the western Gulf.

Convective activity should continue to develop, again isolated to
scattered, across the Northern Coastal Bend into Victoria Crossroads
where the greater moisture surge will be. Embedded thunder is a
possibility as MLCAPEs increase to around 1500 J/kg but with the
depth of the moisture being limited, not expecting a lot of
lightning. Expect the activity to wane some during the late evening
with another round of offshore showers developing after midnight and
pushing inland during the morning on Friday.

Tides/Coastal Flooding...

We reach 2` MSL for the high tide this afternoon, early morning
northwest winds really carved into the tidal anomalies, but that may
have only been a one day break. Better more persistent onshore flow
looks to resume later tonight which would allow swells to increase
some and allow water to build up again along the coast. Astronomical
tide levels are higher over the next several days, continuing to
build, so it will take less of an anomaly to reach our minor
overflow thresholds. Definitely something to keep an eye on and it
could last several days, again.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

Moisture will continue to increase across the region as we head into
the weekend. As a longwave trough digs across the central U.S.,
several shortwaves will work their way across South Texas. This will
lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend. The majority of the activity will be confined to the
Coastal Waters as the highest moisture looks to remain over the
waters. The main trough/cold front will push through the region
Sunday morning brining increased rain chances. Rain chances quickly
drop off Monday as drier and cooler air filters into the region.

A steady increase in temperatures will continue through the end of
the work week with highs approaching the lower 90s across the Brush
Country to mid to upper 80s across the Coastal Bend. Much more
comfortable weather is expected behind the cold front with highs
ranging from the upper 70s to low/mid 80s. Low temps will drop down
into the upper 50s to lower 60s as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    67  84  70  85  72  /  10  30  30  30  20
Victoria          62  84  67  84  70  /  10  40  30  50  30
Laredo            62  87  69  88  71  /   0   0  10  10  10
Alice             64  86  69  88  70  /  10  20  20  20  20
Rockport          71  83  73  85  75  /  20  40  40  40  30
Cotulla           59  86  68  87  69  /   0   0  10  10  10
Kingsville        65  88  69  88  71  /  10  30  20  30  20
Navy Corpus       73  85  75  86  76  /  20  30  40  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



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