Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 281754 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1254 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017


No major changes needed to the forecast this afternoon. Diurnal
heating will result in isolated to scattered convection this
afternoon, which is handled well by the current forecast.
Otherwise, grids were updated to account for latest trends.

Please see 18z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions will continue this afternoon with winds shifting
back around to the east. Isolated to scattered convection could
impact the terminals, and will keep a mention of VCTS remarks in
the forecast. Another round of low clouds may occur late tonight
into early Thursday morning with MVFR ceilings possible. Low
clouds, if they should develop, will mix out mid to late morning.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 638 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/


Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the 12z TAFs.


Mixture of VFR/MVFR ceilings this morning will transition to VFR
by afternoon. Isolated showers will continue over the Coastal
Bend this morning then transition to isolated/scattered showers
and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Convection to end during
the during the evening/early tonight. A return to MVFR ceilings
expected during the 06-12z Thursday period over the Coastal
Bend/Victoria Crossroads, along with isolated showers near the
immediate Coast.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

Deterministic and ensemble output suggest that the N-S upper
trough axis/weakness in the 500mb heights will remain quasi-
stationary over the ERN CWA/MSA during the period. NAM
deterministic soundings at select locations suggest that moist
atmospheric conditions will persist during the period (PWAT as
metric.) Expect nocturnal isolated/scattered convection near the
coast and offshore with diurnal activity mainly over the ERN CWA.
The GFS predicts greater 1000-500mb thickness values over the CWA
Thursday, which is reflected in the higher maximum temperature
forecast. Maximum heat index values today expected to remain
generally below 105F, yet higher values Thursday (SPS may be
needed Thursday.) Not confident that maximum water levels at Bob
Hall pier/other locations will reach 2ft msl and thus will not
issue a CFW. Expected sea state today conducive to low risk of rip
currents. For Thursday, the Wavewatch predicts 9 second primarily
swell periods yet with around 1 ft or less swell heights. Will
issue a moderate risk of rip currents for Thursday.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...

Models prog the upper level shear axis to be east of the CWA Thu
night/Fri. This will lead to drier mid/upper levels, and in turn,
lower rain chances Thu night/Fri. The better dynamics and deepest
moisture will remain over the waters Thu night, then shift inland
during the day Fri, but pops will be on the low end. Models prog
PWAT`s of around 1.5 inches through much of the extended with waves
of moisture moving inland each afternoon with the sea breeze.
However, with the moisture being so limited and models showing NVA
aloft, went with silent 5-10 pops Fri night through Mon. Can not
rule out a rogue shra along the sea breeze, but it does not warrant
mention at this time. By Tue, models prog slightly deeper moisture
with PWAT`s increasing to around 1.8 inches and a short wave aloft.
The weakest capping inversion is progged to be across the VCT area
and over the waters. Therefore, introduced a 20 pop for those areas.

Above normal temps will persist through the extended. Afternoon heat
indices will be highest Fri with values 108 to 112 across much of S
TX. A heat advisory may be needed Fri. Heat indices the remainder of
the extended are progged to be around 104 to 108. As for winds, SCA
conditions are possible across the coastal waters Thu night and
again Fri night, then a weak to at times moderate onshore flow is
expected the remainder of the period.


Corpus Christi    90  76  91  80  97  /  40  20  30  10  20
Victoria          89  74  91  78  95  /  40  20  30  10  20
Laredo            96  75 100  79 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
Alice             92  74  95  77  99  /  30  20  20  10  10
Rockport          86  78  87  82  94  /  40  30  30  20  20
Cotulla           96  75  99  77 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        91  75  93  78  98  /  40  20  30  10  20
Navy Corpus       87  78  88  83  90  /  40  30  30  20  20





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