Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 051748 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1248 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE TODAY. A FEW EDITS
WERE MADE TO HOURLY WEATHER ELEMENTS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
BASED ON HIGH TEMPS YESTERDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.

PLEASE SEE UPDATED 18Z SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY BR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AT THE ALI TERMINAL AND HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF MVFR TEMP FOR REDUCED
VSBYS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM NW TO NE... BUT BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID/LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
BRIEF MVFR OWING TO MIST DRG THE 10-12Z FRIDAY PERIOD OVER THE
INLAND COASTAL BEND. LGT WEST/VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING WL
TRANSITION TO N/NE THIS AFTN. LGT EAST WIND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE CWA/MSA AS THE REGION REMAINS EAST OF THE
OMEGA BLOCK RIDGE AXIS (GFS DETERMINISTIC.) THE AXIS APPROACHES
THE CWA FRIDAY MEANING THAT THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CONTRIBUTES TO AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTN. NEVERTHELESS...
MSTR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED OVER THE CWA PER NAM DETERMINISTIC.
THUS WL MAINTAIN NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR TODAY/FRIDAY. EXPECT TIDE
LEVELS TO REMAIN BELOW 2FT MSL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH A PRONOUNCED SLOW-MOVING BROAD
SCALE PATTERN MARKED BY UPPER TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS AND A MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY REPLENISHING MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS.

BY MONDAY THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR RAIN
CHANCES. BEST CONDITIONS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL BEND AND
A NOTICEABLE CAP WILL BE IN PLACE BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY GENERALLY EAST OF US281 AND AGAIN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT OVER A LARGER PART OF THE COASTAL BEND. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE VERY SPOTTY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. DRYLINE PUSHING EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING
DESERT AIR TO THE BRUSH COUNTRY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BOTH DAYS. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
WEST OF TEXAS 16 TICK 100 EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  62  87  65  84  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          87  57  85  61  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            95  64  93  68  92  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             91  59  89  62  88  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          86  66  84  69  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           92  60  91  64  91  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        90  60  89  64  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       83  67  84  70  81  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



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