Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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651
FXUS64 KCRP 060459
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1059 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION CYCLE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM
THE 00Z CYCLE.

AVIATION...

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MORE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT IN WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK AHEAD OF AND ALONG A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT. KVCT MAY
BE THE ONLY TERMINAL TO SEE RAIN AND LOWER RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...VFR. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING IN BEHIND. DURING
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE REGION SUBSIDING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
NOT VERY STRONG. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR ALL OF THE
AREA...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO QUICKLY INCREASE
TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE GULF WATERS BY 15Z SATURDAY WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE BAYS. WILL EXPIRE THE SCA FOR THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS AT 21Z SATURDAY AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT 00Z
SUNDAY. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER (SATURDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH
TEXAS SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25-30 KNOTS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL MIX DOWN BY MID MORNING
WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER
THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BUT RH VALUES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT.
SO INCLUDED ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS IN A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 17-23Z
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME ONSHORE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST AND PUSH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY MORNING. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST
AND GULF WATERS. GIVEN THE LACK OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MOISTURE REMAINS SLIM...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT. BUT...THIS REINFORCEMENT OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER DANGER MONDAY...WITH POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
THE DAYS TO COME. WINDS WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL IN THE 60S AND
LOW 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  70  38  70  45  /  40  10   0   0   0
VICTORIA          43  65  36  68  41  /  40  20   0   0   0
LAREDO            44  70  40  73  45  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             45  70  36  72  42  /  30  10   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          51  67  42  66  47  /  40  20   0   0   0
COTULLA           41  68  34  73  42  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        46  69  36  71  43  /  30  10   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       51  67  45  66  50  /  40  20   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...
     JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...
     NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION



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