Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 041113 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
613 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...BUT STILL LIGHT
AND VERY ISOLATED. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH AT SITES CRP-ALI-VCT THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT AND
BECOME VFR AT 2500-3500 FEET MID-LATE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME. WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...WITH LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND AND
AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...TRANSITION ZONE REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. MOISTURE WILL POOL
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS LEADING TO
PWATS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF AND
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. A DEVELOPING CAP
WILL SUPPRESS MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT...BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND. PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S EAST...TO MID
AND UPPER 90S WEST. SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY...BUT MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF SHIFTING FARTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ALTHOUGH A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS WILL BE MEANDERING AROUND THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS FORECAST MODELS
INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 1.5
INCHES. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MAX TEMPS BY THEN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
NEAR BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN THE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE BORDERLINE
SCA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  77  91  78  92  /  20  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          92  76  92  77  92  /  20  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            97  77  98  78  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             94  76  95  77  96  /  20  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  79  90  81  91  /  30  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           95  75  96  76  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        93  77  93  78  94  /  20  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  79  89  80  90  /  30  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION


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