Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 310259 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
959 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN REASON FOR THE UPDATE WAS TO CLEAN UP HOURLY
GRIDS TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. FOG MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE
TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE
ELEVATED. OTHERWISE...A PRETTY QUIET NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. UPDATED PRODUCTS ALL
READY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. COULD
SEE A BIT OF FOG ONCE AGAIN AT ALI/VCT...BUT WITH MOISTURE BEING A
BIT DEEPER...LEANING AWAY FROM THE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AND TO MORE OF A STRATUS SITUATION. WOULD STILL LIKELY
HAVE MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME. DURING THE DAY TOMORROW EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL START TO
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT WOULD BE MORE AFTER THE END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD STARTING IN VCT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...INCREASING DRY
CONVECTION JUST TO THE NE OF THE CWA YET 19Z LAPS-BASED PWAT
VALUES BELOW NORMAL AND CIN VALUES 30-100J/KG OVER THE EXTREME
NERN CWA. WL NOT FCST CONVECTION FOR THIS EVENING OVER THE NERN
CWA. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT WITH RESPECT TO THE
UPPER PATTERN...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY SE-NW ORIENTED RIDGE ACRS
THE SWRN/WRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS AND WITH DISTURBANCES MOVG SEWD ACRS THE PLAINS/NERN
TX. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO A SFC BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE NAM/GFS PROG A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY TO
ENTER THE CWA/MSA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH DISTURBANCES WL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA/MSA...EXPECT INCREASING MSTR CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLD
CONVECTION OVER THE NRN CWA BY THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING. ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CWA/MSA THURSDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...SCEC WIND MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING OVER THE SRN BAYS/SRN
NEARSHORE WATERS BASED ON ANTICIPATED MAGNITUDE OF VERTICALLY-
MIXING MOMENTUM. CONVECTION ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS
MENTIONED ABOVE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO S TX THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND WHERE IT STALLS.
THE BETTER RAIN DAY HAD LOOKED TO BE SAT BUT LATEST RUNS SUGGEST
FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH THE BDRY MVG A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER S THAN
YESTERDAY`S RUNS. FOR FRI...HAVE INCREASED POPS BY ADDITIONAL 10
PERCENT WITH THE BDRY DRIFTING INTO S TX. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NE WHERE COOLEST MID LEVEL TEMPS AND BEST INSTABILITY ARE
PROGD TO BE LOCATED. ALSO THINK IF THE BDRY IS SLOWER...THE SEA
BREEZE WILL AID IN PRODUCING SCT PRECIP GIVEN 2+ INCH PWATS. WHERE
THE BDRY STALLS WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHCS WILL OCCUR
SO FOR FRI NIGHT KEPT A BROADBRUSHED 30 POP...BUT DID DECREASE POPS
ALONG THE FAR NRN CWA ON SAT AS MOST MODELS DO SHOW SOME DRYING
ACROSS THE NRN TIER. AM EXPECTING THAT SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT LACK OF UPPER JET AND
LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...AM NOT ANTICIPATING SVR WX. TOT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH FRI-SUN ARE EXPECTED TO AVE 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH
BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE WEAK BDRY WILL THEN EITHER
WASH OUT OR LIFT N THRU SUNDAY. TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE NW ON
SUNDAY BUT KEPT THE 30 POPS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS
WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE PROGD TO BE LOCATED. BY
MON-TUE...PWATS HAVE LOWERED BUT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD
SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. THE WIND FCST IS TRICKY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION OF BDRY...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARYING FROM SE TO NE. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS BY 2-4 DEGREES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP THEN SHOW A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  96  76  95  75  /  10  10  20  30  30
VICTORIA          75  96  76  92  72  /  10  10  30  40  30
LAREDO            78 106  78 102  79  /  10  10  20  30  30
ALICE             74 100  74  97  74  /  10  10  20  30  30
ROCKPORT          80  89  79  90  79  /  10  10  20  30  30
COTULLA           75 102  77  97  74  /  10  10  30  30  30
KINGSVILLE        75  98  75  97  75  /  10  10  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  79  89  79  /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM





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