Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 252335
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
535 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ON
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WILL START TO SEE STRATUS DEVELOP IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BY
MORNING EXPECT A SOLID MVFR CONDITION. WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY
TOMORROW THAN TODAY DUE TO LESS MIXING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS OVER LAND
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THEY DECOUPLE THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
AND MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER LVL SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND THEN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS.

EXPECT WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS ONSHORE
FLOW HAS RETURNED AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AS
WELL. HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND OVER TO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE RAIN...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
SATURDAY AND TUESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTH
TEXAS...ALONG WITH BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (SATURDAY) AND RAIN
(SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY).
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ON THE SCENARIO (SLIGHT TIMING
ISSUES)...WITH A FRONT COMING DOWN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST) ON SATURDAY...THEN
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH A POTENT UPPER TROUGH/RRQ OF JET.
GFS IS FASTEST WITH TROUGH MOVEMENT (12Z ECMWF NOT TOO DIFFERENT
WITH GFS) WITH CANADIAN SLOWEST (NAM A TAD FASTER THAN CANADIAN). AM
GOING TO PRETTY MUCH KEEP TIMING ABOUT THE SAME...WITH RAIN ON
SUNDAY THEN ENDING RAIN CHANCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER PATTERN
PRETTY MUCH REMAINS IN SSW FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER FRONT (RATHER STRONG) WILL MOVE DOWN ON TUESDAY...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME RAIN WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN...SO
HAVE KEPT POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND INCLUDED THEM FOR THURSDAY AS
WELL. WITH CLOUDS AND STRONG FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL
STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR HIGHS BUT ABOUT THE SAME OR HIGHER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE ITS
EFFECTS WILL BE AFTER THIS FORECAST (FRIDAY).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    59  76  65  70  46  /  10  10  20  30  40
VICTORIA          54  74  63  68  42  /  10  20  20  40  40
LAREDO            51  76  58  68  46  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             55  76  64  70  47  /  10  10  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          60  71  64  68  46  /  10  20  20  40  50
COTULLA           49  74  56  64  42  /   0  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        57  78  64  72  46  /  10  10  10  20  40
NAVY CORPUS       61  72  65  69  45  /  10  10  20  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.