Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 201144 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
644 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH TEXAS TERMINALS. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR THE COAST WHERE CONVERGENCE AXIS IS LOCATED. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL BEND THIS MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR
CONVECTION WITH VICINITY REMARKS AT ALI/CRP/VCT WITH TEMPO
SHRA/TSRA...WITH ONLY VCTS REMARKS AT LRD FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 12 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ALI/VCT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNCAPPED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AGAIN TODAY AS MODELS PROG PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.3
INCHES. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE
COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST IN THE STRONGER AND SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S OUT WEST TO LOWER 90S OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS...WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SETTLES INTO
THE REGION. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG SUN NGT/MON MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY DUE TO DRIER
AMS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY AFTN AS NEXT
TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHC
OF SH/TSRA. MOISTURE DEEPENS WED-FRI AS CNTRL PLAINS TROUGH PERSISTS
AND SUBTROPICAL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO/AND SOUTH
TEXAS. S/W`S EMBEDDED WITH THIS JET WILL RESULT IN CHANCE OF SH/TSRA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  76  88  75  91  /  40  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          90  73  90  71  91  /  40  20  20  10  10
LAREDO            95  76  93  75  93  /  40  30  30  20  10
ALICE             92  75  91  73  92  /  40  30  30  10  10
ROCKPORT          89  77  89  78  89  /  40  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           94  75  92  73  92  /  40  30  30  10  10
KINGSVILLE        92  76  91  74  91  /  40  30  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       88  78  89  78  88  /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION





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