Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 221129
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
629 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016
Updated for 12Z aviation forecast.
Expect continued VFR conditions through the forecast period.
Southeast flow will develop by tonight and begin to bring moisture
back into the area. While VIS and CIG reductions are not expected,
light fog at VCT can not be ruled out.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Surface high pressure ridge will shift eastward today allowing
winds to shift back around to the southeast. At the same time,
upper level ridging will be building as well. With onshore flow
returning by this evening, will start to see a gradual increase in
moisture back into the region. An upper level shortwave will move
across South Texas on Sunday afternoon, however moisture will
still be limited and will not introduce pops.
Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday with highs around
80. Increasing moisture will keep lows from cooling as much
tonight...but will still be in the 60s areawide. Noticeably warmer
by Sunday with highs back into the mid and upper 80s.
LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Looks like moisture becomes better at the first part of the
forecast, and there is enough instability and forcing in the gulf
waters and coast for showers, and some weak isentropic lift inland
which could trigger some rain as well Sunday night. Thus, do have a
mention of rainfall but with only 10 POPs for now. Rain chances will
continue into Monday morning (but now 20 POPs) with the moisture
advection and near surface forcing. Also, there is diffluence aloft
but the atmosphere remains relatively capped still so think rain if
any will be in the shower form rather than thunder. Good convergence
and sufficient moisture and instability Monday night through Tuesday
night for some coastal showers/thunder (and still some upper level
diffluence occurring). However confidence in rain is not really
high. After Wednesday however, things begin to dry out better
Wednesday night as upper ridge comes back and thus rain chances
appear rather limited Thursday and Friday (hence no rain mentioned).
Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies Monday through Wednesday with
lesser cloud cover Thursday and Friday as the upper ridge returns.
Weak wind shift Thursday with the upper ridge oriented N-S but
forcing and moisture too weak to mention rainfall. Concerning
temperatures, should have highs in the 80s with lows from the
60s/near 70 inland areas and lower 70s coast. Guidance pretty well
showing this so did not tinker too much with the numbers.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 82 67 85 72 86 / 0 0 10 10 20
Victoria 82 58 85 67 86 / 0 0 10 10 10
Laredo 84 65 88 70 88 / 0 0 10 10 10
Alice 84 62 87 69 88 / 0 0 10 10 20
Rockport 79 68 83 73 85 / 0 0 10 10 10
Cotulla 83 60 86 68 88 / 0 0 10 10 10
Kingsville 84 63 87 70 88 / 0 0 10 10 20
Navy Corpus 80 71 83 74 86 / 0 0 10 10 20