Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 171018
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
418 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Concur with the GFS deterministic which predicts increasing
upper dynamics (Q-vector convergence/upper jet streak) over the
CWA/MSA in response to an upper disturbance to move across the
region during the period. The NAM/GFS predict the frontal boundary
to remain quasi-stationary and oriented SW-NE across the CWA
Today through early Wednesday. NAM determisitic predict PWAT
values well above normal south of the boundary. The combination of
the boundary/moisture/increasing upper forcing will contribute to
scattered to numerous showers (isolated/scattered thunderstorms
owing to limited CAPE) Today. Stronger upper jet dynamics expected
Wednesday and the front is predicted to move offshore by Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Thus...additional scattered/numerous showers
(isolated/scattered thunderstorms) expected again Wednesday.
Limited CAPE notwithstanding...strong vertical shear may
contribute to strong storms over the CWA Today. NAM deterministic
predict Skew-Ts in advance of the front Tonight/Wednesday to
favor efficient rainfall production (except for strong vertical
shear.) Not sure whether rainfall rates will be sufficient to
generate widespread flash flooding. Areas of advection fog early
this morning over the Bays/Nearshore Waters should diminish by
late this morning owing to mixing of slightly drier air from
aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...

Not much change in thinking through the long term period. Frontal
boundary finally pushes away from the coast Wednesday night into
Thursday. Upper level trough still over the area on Thursday will
keep a chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially early in the
day. By Thursday night, will be on the drier side of upper level
system with PWATs quickly dropping to below 0.5 inch and very low
layer RH. Another upper level shortwave will move through the area
on Friday into Friday night, but at this time still think moisture
will be too limited for any real rain chances, so have kept things
dry. If models continue to indicate it, may have to add a slight
chance pops for coastal counties Friday into Saturday.

Our next cold front is then on tap for the weekend, GFS/ECMWF models
surprisingly well in agreement with front timing Saturday night.
This will bring our first real airmass change in a week and a half.
Dewpoints should decrease significantly, and a moderate decrease in
temperatures is expected with the Pacific airmass. Strong winds look
likely behind this front as a surface low develops in the Texas
panhandle and tracks eastward, really tightening up the pressure
gradient for South Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  62  73  56  74  /  50  70  60  50  50
Victoria          72  58  65  55  73  /  60  80  80  50  40
Laredo            75  56  66  55  78  /  40  60  20  30  20
Alice             77  61  70  55  77  /  50  70  50  40  40
Rockport          73  62  70  56  70  /  50  70  70  50  50
Cotulla           65  55  64  51  78  /  60  70  30  30  20
Kingsville        77  62  73  57  76  /  40  70  50  40  40
Navy Corpus       72  64  70  58  70  /  40  70  60  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM


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