Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 011454
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1054 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
TODAY WILL LIFT FOR SUNDAY. A DEEPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SENDING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BKN LAYER OF ALTOCU AHEAD OF A WEAK...NORTH/SOUTH SFC TROUGH
WILL SLIDE QUICKLY EAST AND OUT OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUALLY VEER OF THE SFC WIND BY ABOUT 20-30
DEG WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH...WITH SFC WIND SPEEDS INCREASING BY ANOTHER 5
KTS OR SO. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST OR NW WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS BASED ON BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS WITH THE
DEPTH OF VERTICAL MIXING UP TO AROUND 7 KTS AGL.

RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT/850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN 6C/KM WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH...
SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F...AND STG HEATING OF THE DAY AND WE SHOULD
SEE ISOLD SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A FEW LOW-TOPPED TSRA/ BETWEEN
17Z-22Z.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE SE. SOMEONE MAY SEE
90F IN THE LOWER SUSQ THANKS TO A LIGHT-MDT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE A BIT FOR SUNDAY AND KEEP THE DAY DRY.
WHILE MDLS HINT AT SOME ACTION ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...FEEL
THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH VERY LOW MOISTURE FOR WHAT SHOULD
BE THE DOG DAYS OF AUGUST. DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S. THIS
DRY AIR SHOULD HEAT UP FAIRLY NICELY AND MIX DEEPLY TO ALLOW TEMPS
TO GET BACK TO NORMAL IN THE NW AND MAYBE ADD A DEG ONTO SATURDAY
MAXES. A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IN OTHERWISE DRY
FLOW WILL ADD JUST A LITTLE GULF MOISTURE TO THE MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC AND SPARK SHRA/TSRA LATER SUN NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTN MONDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN THE TRICKY PART
OF THE FORECAST JUST LIKE EARLY THIS PAST WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IS
MODERATE ON DAYTIME TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS POINT. POPS HAVE
THUS BEEN MOVED UPWARD TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HRS. MAXES MAY GET INTO THE 90S IN THE SE BEFORE THE FRONT. BUT
MAY STAY IN THE 70S FOR THE NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN A FASHION REMINISCENT OF WINTER. AS IS THE
CASE WITH MOST UPPER LOW VS. SHORT WAVE SPOKES...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WITH NW FLOW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSRA PSBL IS THIS
AFTN...GENERALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENT AND NE PENN
INVOF OF A SFC TROUGH AND A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-WED...VFR...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLATED-SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&


.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER


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