Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 060309
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1109 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES
LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA.
ISOLATED COVERAGE EXTENDS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT
LITTLE IF ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING FARTHER
NORTH.

UPPER LOW SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS WILL
INCREASINGLY FOCUS SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST PA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCUR
ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PA. THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...BUT LIGHT SPRITZES OF DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE FILLING AND EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SERN CANADA ON
SAT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD AN AREA OF STEADY
MODERATE RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN
COLD TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. AN INCREASE IN ATLC
ONSHORE FLOW VIA ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALSO BE IN
PLACE. PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND INITIALLY A PUSH OF SOME WARMER AIR ON SAT AS
A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE TROUGH AND
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY (DUE TO TIME OF DAY)
WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN
A LOW PROB OVER NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE.

THE OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING WARMER AIR AND A RISK FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS. TROUGH EVENTUALLY COMES THROUGH LATER IN THE
WEEK...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN
LARGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MVFR CEILINGS HAVE STARTED TO ADVECT WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. THIS TREND OF MOISTENING FROM EAST TO WEST WILL BRING A
REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS...WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN...OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS LIKELY...ESP AT NIGHT.

SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE



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