Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 260418
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1118 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

18Z surface data has high pressure across the upper Midwest and
Plains with a frontal boundary from the Ohio Valley into the
southern Plains. Dew points were in the 60s from the Great Lakes
into the northern Plains with 70s from the Ohio Valley into the
central Plains on south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area late this
afternoon and through Tuesday as high pressure moves through the
Midwest. Light winds, clear skies, and recent rainfall should allow
patchy fog to develop late tonight and continue through sunrise
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Northwest flow aloft and
surface high pressure should bring a dry period along with near
normal temperatures and humidity, for late July. We have chance pops
for Wednesday night but the latest model runs have backed off on any
rain, especially the ECMWF. Later shifts may be able to remove pops.

Thursday through Saturday: A significant upper trough in the
northwest flow arrives, especially Thursday into Thursday night.
This should bring a decent round of showers and thunderstorms.
However, moisture transport is weak and instability doesn`t appear
to be too great so severe weather threat looks low. Friday and
Saturday look drier and cooler compared to consensus models.

Early next week: Low confidence as the ECMWF is somewhat cooler
compared to the GFS with the heat dome returning to the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016


Clear and VFR weather will dominate most of the next 24 hours
under high pressure at the surface. The exception should be a
period of MVFR shallow fog during the late night/early morning
period tomorrow morning as wet grounds and light winds support fog
formation as well as a heavy dew on exposed surfaces. Once the
strong summer sun is out for a few hours Tuesday, this will return
to consistently VFR weather. ERVIN


&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Ervin



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