Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 241948

248 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

Issued at 225 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A rather active mid afternoon so I`ll be brief. The current activity
is the last round associated with a progressive upr lvl trough that
is now working into the WRN portion of the CWA. As such, the precip
will continue to move off to the east and should be out of the CWA
by early this evening along with clearing skies. Tomorrow will be a
stellar day despite breezy southwest winds. RH values should remain
high enough to mitigate the need for a red flag warning across our
wrn zones.

As for the weekend and the rest of the fcst period... a very large
upr lvl low will develop over the WRN CONUS and move toward our region.
As it does our chance for storms increases Saturday night through
Monday. At this time the latest suite of NWP depict the possibility
for SVR storms on Sunday and perhaps again on Monday. Sunday`s setup
could lead to widespread SVR, but it is unclear whether our CWA will
see the worst of it as a lot of things need to align - an that
remains unclear at this time. After Monday, the upper level system
ushers in cooler air and keeps the region unsettled with spotty light
rain showers. Dprog/Dt of the GFS and EC sfc temps for TUE and WED
have been slightly warmer so hopefully we can avoid a late frost.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

The current line of SHRA and VCTS should clear the terminals by 19Z
today. Behind the line CIGS will improve through the afternoon
accompanied by northwest winds. Expecting VFR conditions tonight and
through the rest of the TAF period. The surface winds tomorrow will
become southwesterly and pick up in speeds around 15 to 20 kts.




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