Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGGW 290254
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
854 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...
STEADY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EARLY EXPIRATION OF THE FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AND THE DUST ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TILL MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES WITH RAWS STATIONS REPORTING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND
GUSTS FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA THIS EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 4 AM WITH THE WIND
RELAXING BELOW CRITERIA BY THEN.      PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST WIND
GUST SO FAR AS OF 2 PM CAME FROM A SITE IN WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY
(56 MPH). HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES UNTIL
THE GUST FRONT MOVES INTO ND...PROBABLY ABOUT 500-600 PM.
TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS NOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA MOVES ACROSS
THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN CLEARING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER THEY BLOW NEAR 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS GOING.

SUNDAY PROMISES TO BE A QUIETER DAY WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND TURNS WINDS TO THE NW. 850 MB TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3-5*C
BUT BETTER MIXING SHOULD GIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO SUNDAY/S. TFJ


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

CHOSE TO UPDATE THE LONG TERM GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE LATEST MODEL UPDATES AND BEST CONSENSUS I COULD SEE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAY JUST GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EASILY GUSTING UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A
LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS INTO THE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY ACCOMPANY PERIODS OF RAIN THIS EVENING
WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 04Z. BY
MORNING EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT A LIGHT WEST WIND AROUND 10 KTS
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR DAWSON...
MCCONE...PRAIRIE...WIBAUX.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.