Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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203
FXUS65 KGGW 020227
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
827 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR THIS EVENING. ONLY PRODUCED A
FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO KEEP
THEM IN LINE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BEAT DOWN ON THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND IS KEEPING THE AREA STABLE AND DRY. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
A WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE HAS SPREAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN CANADA AND INTO MONTANA TODAY TO BECOME A CUT-OFF HIGH
THAT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY NEARBY WEATHER FEATURE THAT MIGHT BRING IN
SOME CLOUDINESS IS A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF
MANITOBA INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME RAIN THERE...BUT KEEP US DRY.

AS THE HIGH CENTER BECOMES AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AND POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THICKNESS
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP HIGHER TO BRING INCREASINGLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES....WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. ALSO DURING
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10-15KT
IN THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART.

SCT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE FOR
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AS EXTENDED MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE CLOSED LOW PUSHING STAYING WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN MONTANA TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS RIDGE WILL
MEAN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND DRIFT OFF
TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
OFF THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE NORTH INTO MONTANA AND AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EXACTLY
HOW THE SYSTEM WILL SET UP OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT AREAS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS SYSTEM...AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

BIGELBACH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS ON MONDAY.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



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