Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 150239

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
739 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2017


Made no major updates to the inherited forecast. Temperatures
Friday look to be warm enough for precipitation to start as rain,
transitioning to snow Friday evening. This still looks to be a
quick moving system, moving into the area Friday night and
departing Saturday morning. Up to approximately half an inch of
snow is possible south of the Missouri River, with little to no
accumulations north of the Missouri. Hickford

Short wave which brought some light snow and low clouds to the
CWA this morning has exited to the southeast with improving
conditions in its wake this afternoon. Lighter winds and mostly
clear skies are expected tonight.

For Friday, ridging aloft will dominate with dry conditions and
warmer temps. However, another trough developing in the Pacific
Northwest will begin to break down the ridge as it moves into the
northern Rockies. Models are in good agreement with progged qpf
fields pushing a modest area/band of precipitation through the CWA
Friday night. It appears the bulk of this will occur after sunset,
and combined with some cold air advection should primarily be
snow. Due to the fast moving nature of this system, and bulk of
forcing tracking southeast, accumulations should be around an inch
or less. By Saturday morning, the precipitation will be south of
the area, but look for lingering clouds and a chilly northerly
wind through the day. Highs on Saturday will likely be on the
order of around 10-15 degrees cooler than Friday. The upper trough
axis slides through us Saturday night leading to clearing skies
and decreasing wind. Overnight lows will be in the upper teens to
lower 20s for most locations.

Looking ahead to next week, the upper flow pattern intensifies as
moves across Canada and tracks into the northern high plains.
This will open the door for another back-doorish cold front by
Monday. This may result in a baroclinic band of snowfall dropping
south across the CWA, but models are not in good agreement as to
the timing nor strength. So have generally kept PoP`s on the low
side Monday and Monday night. Another strong trough works into the
Pacific Northwest Tuesday. This results in some strong ridging
over the Rockies and high plains at midweek before the upper
trough works inland around Thursday and pulls down some of the
coldest air of the season into eastern Montana. Models agree there
will be a good chance of snowfall across the region with this
system. Therefore, have raised PoP`s and lowered temps for the
latter part of next week. BT


VFR CIGS will prevail across the area tonight through Friday.
Expect west winds from 5 to 10 kts overnight, increasing to 10 to
15 kts Friday. BT/AEH




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