Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 170840
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
240 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Wed...

Flat upper ridge will be over Montana today. This will bring a
warm and dry day to the forecast area. A cold front will be
approaching the area from the west today. Compressional heating
ahead of the front along with a thermal ridge will warm
temperatures into the 70s for highs today or about 15 degrees
above normal. Southwest winds ahead of the front will be strong
enough at times today for a Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake.
With winds expected to be around 20 mph and RH in the teens this
afternoon, will expand Red Flag Warning to include the western
half of the forecast area.

Dry Cold front will move through Northeast Montana this evening
with shortwave trough late tonight. 850 mb wind are expected to
between 50 and 60 knots with the front. However, the evening
timing and low level inversions will limit mixing in most areas.
The exception will be the Little Rocky Mountains of SW Phillips
County whose elevation is around the 850 mb level. Will issue a
High Wind Warning for that area. It will be windy elsewhere
tonight with strong west winds but wind speeds should stay below
warning criteria.

High pressure builds into Eastern Montana on Wednesday which will
diminish the winds. Temperatures will be around 15 degrees cooler
than today which will be near normal for mid October. Forrester


.LONG TERM...Wed night through Tue...

Surface high will move to the east and flat ridge in nearly zonal
flow Wednesday Night will bring mostly clear skies to the
forecast area. Warmer temperatures will return on Thursday with a
thermal ridge building into the area. Highs will be in the 70s. Flow
aloft turns to the southwest on Thursday as an upper trough moves
inland from the Pacific. This will bring a cold front through the
area on Friday with an upper trough moving through Friday Night.
It looks like there may be enough moisture behind the front Friday
Night for a chance of showers.

Saturday will be windy and cooler with gusty west winds as the
upper trough moves to the east.

A shortwave trough and cold front on Sunday will bring strong west
winds to the forecast area. There may be enough moisture for a
slight chance of showers.

Monday and Tuesday looks dry at this point with surface high
pressure and NW flow aloft. Forrester



&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CAT: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A cold front between 03z and 06z this evening will bring
strong west winds and mid and high level clouds.

LLWS: Low level wind shear will continue until 15z this morning
with strong west winds above a low level surface inversion this
morning. Low level wind shear is likely again tonight and Wednesday
morning, but possibly stronger.

WIND: variable or southwest at less than 10 kts early, increasing
to 15 to 25 kts this afternoon, veering to west and further
increasing to 20 to 30 kts Tonight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon for Zones 134, 135,
136, and 137 for low RH and gusty southwest winds. Min RH this
afternoon will be in the teens with southwest winds 15 to 25 mph.
A dry cold front this evening will bring strong west winds but RH
will be on the rise by that time. The Little Rocky Mountains will
have wind gusts to 65 mph with the cold front tonight while wind
gusts to 45 mph are possible elsewhere.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
evening for MTZ134>137.

High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Wednesday
for Southwest Phillips.

Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM MDT Wednesday For Fort Peck Lake
for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern
Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow



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