Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 251452

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
852 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast through Wed...

Changes to the forecast were focused more on the tonight period.
ridge across the area today is expected to topple in the evening
hours allowing southwest flow behind it to drive a shortwave
through central and eastern Montana. The question remains as to
how far north or south showers associated with this wave will
move. At this time we are hedging the bets that it will move along
the BYZ/GGW border through the late evening and morning hours.

Northeast Montana begins the day under the boundary of a hot
desert air-mass to the south and cooler trough air to the north.
Winds aloft will be zonal for another day of near normal
temperatures. By evening a weak and shallow short- wave moves
across the Divide as an embedded disturbance that may initiate
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday, the hot air-mass nudges the stationary boundary north
into Canada, but flow aloft remains zonal. With increasing
instability in place, embedded disturbances will once again
initiate another round of nocturnal thunderstorms. With Pacific
moisture flowing in with the westerly flow and a strong surface
feed from the east, there will be plenty of moisture for the
storms to work with through Wednesday morning. SPC Convective
outlooks for Tuesday and Wednesday put Northeast Montana in its
coverage for general thunderstorms and marginal risk for eastern


.LONG TERM...Wed night through Mon...

Northwest flow aloft will prevail from Wednesday Night through
Friday. Frequent shortwaves are expected which will bring chances
for showers and thunderstorms.

An upper ridge builds into the area Friday Night and Saturday with
dry and warmer weather.

The ridge moves to the east on Sunday and flow aloft turns to the
southwest. Shortwaves within the SW flow aloft will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms that will continue into Monday. Forrester



SYNOPSIS: A high pressure ridge will move to the east today with
mostly clear skies and excellent flying weather through the early
evening. A disturbance tonight will bring mid and high level
clouds with an isolated shower or thunderstorm near KGDV and KSDY
after 06Z.

WINDS: Light and variable winds this morning... will become north
at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon... and then veer northeast 5 to
15 knots tonight.





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