Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
FXUS65 KGGW 271508 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
908 AM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017
.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Wed...
Sent an update this morning to try and get a handle on the rain
showers out there now. Based on the radar imagery, upper-level
flow pattern, and the messy, dis-organized nature of the model
precip solutions, this looks to be mostly to completely cloudy
with scattered or isolated rain showers off and on all day with
some sprinkles elsewhere. Tried to blend the best model precip I
could find. I`ll keep an eye on things and update again if
Previous short term discussion: Radar echoes show some showers
moving across the southwest zones early this morning. The latest
12z models continue having this activity progress over the region
today with QPF amounts generally under 0.10" for the most part. Do
expect chances for showers to continue at times into Tuesday
until the main trough axis slides east and heads downstream of the
The 500mb height pattern shows a nice upper level ridge building
across the southwestern U.S. and amplifying into Montana while
a shortwave trough reaches the Pacific Northwest. This will mean
drier weather conditions for the region in the midweek along with
warmer temperatures. At this time most places can expect highs in
the lower to middle 60s. A few deeper valleys and locations
nearest the Canadian border may be in the upper 50s to just shy of
that 60 degree mark.
.LONG TERM...Wed night through Mon...
Shortwave ridge will bring dry weather to the area Wednesday
A split upper level trough moves inland from the Pacific
Thursday. The base of the southern trough digs into the desert
southwest Thursday Night and Friday and becomes closed low.
Southerly to southwest flow ahead of this trough will bring
moisture into Northeast Montana mainly Thursday Night and Friday
with a chance of rain possibly light snow if temperatures are cold
During the day on Friday, Northeast Montana switches to the drier
northern stream and a shortwave trough moves through the area and
moves the moisture to the east by Friday Night.
Upper ridge will bring dry weather on Saturday.
Models time the trough for early next week differently with the
GFS somewhat faster than the ECMWF. Could see a chance of rain by
Sunday Night or Monday.
FLIGHT CAT: VFR
SYNOPSIS: A shortwave trough will move through the area today and
tonight with isolated to scattered rain showers and a mix of low
VFR and mid level clouds.
WINDS: Light and variable early becoming east to southeast at 5
to 15 kts by afternoon. Winds will turn to the northeast tonight.