Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 312028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
228 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Early afternoon WV imagery shows mid  level circulation still
lingering over our CWA beneath large scale ridge. A long plume of
moisture continues to stream into the plains, and RAP analysis
indicates PWAT values 1.2-1.5", which anomalously high for the end
of August. RAP analysis also shows weak to moderate instability in
place with MU CAPE values generally around 1000 J/KG.

Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing with very slow storm motions and
heavy rain reported at isolated locations. In some cases 0.5" of
rain has fallen in a matter of 15-20 min. Considering forcing,
moisture, and instability in place scattered thunderstorms should
continue through the afternoon and into the evening. Guidance
supports mid level circulation finally sliding southward and
weakening allowing for decreasing coverage or end of
showers/thunderstorms from the north to the south through Thursday
morning. Due to lack of shear and limited instability severe
threat is limited mainly to localized flash flooding.

Fog should redevelop again tonight, with patchy dense fog possible
once again. There is some indication of clearing or a decrease in
BL moisture from the northeast. If light easterly surface flow
continues as indicated clearing skies might actually allow for
better radiational cooling and still may end up with fog

Regarding temperatures: Even with stratus/fog we should see cooler
low temperatures than the last few nights due to cooler air mass
aloft in place (by about 5C). Consensus favors highs in the upper
50s to around 60F, but if clearing takes place (in the north) a few
locations may drop into the low to mid 50s. High temperatures
Thursday may be a little warmer due to potential clearing and drier
conditions despite a similar air mass in place. Model consensus
still favors below normal highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Dry weather begins the extended period as a H5 ridge will be in
place over the region with low pressure situated off the northwest
Pacific coast as well as the northeast U.S. The ridge will push
east as we head into Friday with the amplified meridional
pattern bringing a trough to the western U.S. Good low to mid-
level moisture will be advected into the region through the day on
Friday with PoPs increasing as we head into the afternoon. Better
thunderstorm chances begin in the western portions of the CWA
Friday afternoon and work eastward into the early evening in
association with a shortwave that will traverse the eastern
portions of the approaching larger trough. There will be an axis
of relatively high instability that will allow thunderstorms to
become strong to marginally severe.

Look for another chance of thunderstorms on Saturday with better
instability and shear than Friday`s setup. Severe thunderstorm
chances will be higher on Saturday especially during the late
afternoon and into the evening. Will need to monitor future model
runs for consistency but at this point we could see the
possibility of discreet supercell development complete with good
shear both at the lower levels and the mid-levels.

The shortwave will push off to the northeast on Sunday with the
help of a surface low that will track across southwest Canada. A
few thunderstorms could still develop in the northeastern portions
of the CWA on Sunday. Dry weather will prevail on Monday and
Tuesday for the western portions of the CWA with slgt chc PoPs to
the east. Dry weather is expected through the entire CWA on


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue through the
afternoon and evening with coverage decreasing from the north to
the south. Heavy rain and gusty winds near thunderstorms will be
possible, but prevailing conditions are uncertain. Fog/stratus
should redevelop late this evening or after 06z with IFR
conditions likely and LIFR conditions possible. Have adjusted
TAFs to reflect latest trends.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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