Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 040206
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
806 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

STORM COVERAGE CONTINUING TO INCREASE OVER YUMA COUNTY DURING THE
LAST HOUR OR SO AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST AND LIFT FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTERACT. EXPECT THE
HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
AREA THROUGH MID EVENING THEN DISSIPATE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHEAST. AM STILL ANTICIPATING STORM COVERAGE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE IN THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR...BUT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MAY CHANGE THIS AS IT RUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TREND OF RAINFALL FOR
TONIGHT...SO ONLY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CHANCES BASED ON LATEST
DATA. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

STORM COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK AROUND MID EVENING OVER THE THREE
CORNER PART OF THE AREA...WHERE KS/CO/NE MEET...DUE TO THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVE EAST TOWARD IT. ONCE THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE COLORADO LINE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DECLINE IN COVERAGE AS LIFT
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DECLINES AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE STORMS MOVE BEFORE TURNING
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATING. CURRENTLY THINK THIS
TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR AND BEFORE
HIGHWAY 25. DURING THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.

MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (PER 700-
500MB RH CURRENTLY PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLORADO
ROCKIES) MOVES NORTHEAST ONTO THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS
AROUND 00Z THEN ALONG/NORTH OF THE CO/NE BORDER BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT DRIER AIR MOVES IN BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. FOR FRIDAY ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA BY 18Z THEN NORTH ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE...COOLEST ALONG THE CO/KS
BORDER WITH MILDEST READINGS AROUND HILL CITY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WEST...MID TO
UPPER 90S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO NEAR THE SURFACE FEATURE. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE BETTER COMPARED TO TODAY...NEAR 40KTS...BUT
INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE AND WITH WEAK FORCING THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIND/HAIL.

A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY BUT THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE WELL REMOVED FROM THE ASSOCIATED
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. NONETHELESS...Q-VECTORS NOT UNFAVORABLE AND
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO BE IN THE AREA EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASES BUT
INSTABILITY INCREASES...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA FROM KMCK TO KHLC...WHICH IS WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESIDE.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BE SWEPT
SOUTH WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE
FRONT.

NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
EMERGE ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE COOLER AND
STABLE...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDERWAY BY THURSDAY
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE FLOW
ALOFT WEAKENS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND COULD TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED. AS THE
BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH WE COULD SEE WINDS GUST TO NEAR OR JUST
OVER 20KTS BRIEFLY AT BOTH GLD AND MCK IN THE 02Z TO 04Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AT GLD IN THE
06Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE MORE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...TL


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