Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 241704
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1104 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Update to forecast sent to adjust cloud cover wording for most of
the area. Latest visible satellite image showing veil of thick
mid level clouds continuing to push eastward. With the exception
of the far eastern zones and some locales in SW Nebraska...have
trended remainder of the CWA to psunny thru the day at best. No
other changes at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Today-tonight...quite a bit of moisture in the 850-700mb layer
spreads east during the day and with afternoon temperatures
reaching the low 70s to near 80 (west to east) generate quite a
bit of cloudiness and possibly some rain showers. This batch of
moisture dissipates this evening but moisture in the 700-500mb
column moves in from the northwest after midnight. Not terribly
excited about precipitation chances with it and will suffice for
some slight chance pops. Low temperatures in the upper 40s to low
50s.

Sunday-Sunday night...will have to continue at least a slight chance
for precipitation through the period for much of the area as
northwest flow aloft continues to bring weather disturbances across
the area. High temperatures remain below normal with mid to upper
70s and lows in the low to upper 50s.

Monday-Monday night...most of the area looks to be precipitation
free as drier air aloft moves in. 850mb temperatures warm about 7F
to 10F across the area supporting highs in the low to mid 80s. Low
temperatures milder compared to the past few nights with mid 50s to
low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Upper ridge will briefly build over the region on Tuesday but be
broken down by a shortwave trough coming out of Colorado. Moderate
instability combined with deep layer shear of around 40 kts may
result in a few severe thunderstorms associated with the shortwave
Tuesday afternoon and evening, particularly in eastern parts of
the area.

Another shortwave trough embedded in the zonal flow on Wednesday
combined with low level upslope winds behind a cold front which
sags into the area will result in another chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Deep layer shear remains strong, however
instability is rather weak based on current model runs, so severe
threat will be limited.

A more significant upper shortwave trough appears that it will
move across the area on Thursday. Models currently keep the
stronger instability along the eastern fringes of the area, but
won`t take much to get that to back up a little further west.
However, deep layer shear is weaker compared to previous days. So
once again severe threat would be limited, though this day may
have the best potential for rain.

Looks like northwest flow will be returning by Friday on the
backside of the departing shortwave trough. Hard to rule out storm
chances with any weak embedded wave in the upper flow. Deep layer
shear improves a bit, but instability currently appears weak.

Temperatures will be slightly above normal Tuesday through
Thursday, then cool to slightly below normal on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Conditions...VFR with a mix of SCT-BKN low and mid clouds.

Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........For KGLD...ESE around 10kts thru 05z Sunday...then S
around 10kts. For KMCK...mainly light/variable around 4-6kts...w/
a brief NW around 10kts from 21z Sat-00z Sun.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN



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