Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 202204

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
304 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 147 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows the trough from yesterday continuing
east across the Plains.  Behind the trough a corridor of very dry
air follows.  Further west a short wave ridge was also moving east.
Water vapor quickly increases west of the approaching ridge axis.
At the surface northwest winds have been gusting up to 45 MPH across
much of the Tri-State Area late this morning, with wind speeds
gradually slowing in the afternoon.

Tonight northwest winds will quickly become light in the early
evening then turn to the southwest as a surface high pressure moves
through.  Behind the surface high winds will gradually turn back to
the west.  Due to the clear sky and the cooler, drier air mass, lows
will be cooler than the last couple of nights.

Tuesday warmer air returns behind the surface high.  Highs will
exceed records for the day.  For some locations this will be as much
as six degrees warmer than record values based on the current
forecast.  West winds will be light to breezy, with the stronger
winds over the northern half of the Tri-State Area.  The breezy
winds and low relative humidity values may lead to critical fire
weather conditions in Yuma County. See fire weather section for
further information. For records see climate section below.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

The main focus in the long term is the transition from abnormally
warm temperatures noted early this week back to near normal
temperatures Thursday and Friday with a mix of wintry
precipitation late Thursday into Friday.

Warm and dry conditions continue into Wednesday, but will begin to
cool by late Wednesday following the passage of a cold front
through the central high plains region. The westerly upper flow
begins to turn more southwesterly and sag further south through
the day and into Wednesday night with the approach of the initial
trough expected to move east of the Rockies and lift out across
the central high plains by Thursday evening. A secondary short
wave trough follows quickly behind the initial wave across the
region on Friday.

On Thursday, model solutions take the deepening surface low
deepening in the vicinity of southeast Colorado/Panhandle
region/southwest Kansas eastward along the northern Oklahoma and
southern Kansas border region Thursday night. This is slightly
further south than previous solutions, which should help in
bringing the favored precipitation location and colder air deeper
into the forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning as the
low quickly lifts off to the northeast on Friday. At this time,
solutions indicate less than an inch of accumulating snow across
the northern sections of the forecast area that tapers off to
little or no accumulations across the southern extent of the
forecast area.

The westerly flow across the region has several poorly resolved
troughs moving quickly east of the Rockies and across the central
plains. These waves are expected to produce a slight chance of
precipitation across mainly the northern sections of the forecast
area Saturday night and again Sunday night into Monday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1014 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main issue will be the
strong winds today. Winds are currently at their peak for the day.
The winds will begin to decline in the next couple of hours as the
low level jet overhead shifts east and weakens. Winds will quickly
slow from breezy to light around 0z.

Tonight the winds will turn to the southwest as a surface
high pressure moves through. Behind the surface high the winds
will gradually turn more to the west and remain light.


KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for

CO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ252>254.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for COZ252.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for



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