Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 122102
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 AM MST...SKIES ARE PRIMARILY OVERCAST ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS TRAVERSING THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY AKRON COLORADO TO
BURLINGTON TO LEOTI KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...IN THE 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND MOST OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS...THAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS EAST
COLORADO AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS ARE EAST TO
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IS SURGING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW IS
SITUATED OVERHEAD.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLIDING WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
THE FRONT RETREATS EAST TOMORROW WITH WARMER WEATHER LIKELY WEST OF
THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO TODAY`S OBSERVED CONDITIONS. THIS OCCURS AS
THE ARCTIC BEGINS ITS TREK EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

OF LARGER CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE CHANCES FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN ICY
SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS. IN ADDITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES PROVIDED
BY THIS FRONT...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAVE
BEEN NOTED. THIS IS WHY WE HAVE OBSERVED STRATUS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES COOL THIS EVENING AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS...ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME DENSE
FREEZING FOG...PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40 AND
ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. LOW VISIBILITIES AND ICY SPOTS ARE A
CONCERN WITH THESE ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS. FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS MOST LIKELY GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
OVERALL...ANY IMPACTS (ICY ROADS/LOWERED VISIBILITY) SHOULD BE
CONFINED GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40.

THE FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SOON AS SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES COOL.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO
AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. A SLOW PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE FOG...ESPECIALLY
THE DENSE FOG...SHOULD NOT SLIDE FURTHER EAST AS DRY AIR ADVECTION
FROM THE EAST WILL LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THE FOG ADVANCES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
WITH SECONDARY CONCERN OF LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND A STRONG
AND COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. VERY COLD AIR MASS
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE DOING BETTER THAN THE
REST. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS WERE REASONABLE AND CLOSE BUT NOT
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE RIDGE. THE GFS AND CANADIAN DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN EVERYTHING ELSE. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

SATURDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVES ACROSS DURING THIS
PERIOD. ONLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL STAY DRY.
WILL BE A TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVECTION OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS WILL TRANSITION TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND CLEARING. MODELS HAVE
HAD A TENDENCY TO BE TOO COOL RECENTLY PLUS THERE LOOKS TO BE MORE
SUPPORT FOR GOING WARMER RATHER THAN COOLER.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE DAY HAS SPRINKLES.
DECENT THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF
INCOMING SHORTWAVE WHICH LOOKS TO START GENERATING SOME LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTIFUL MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT A
LOT AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL OUTPUT IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF
IN AREA OF FAVORABLE LIFT/INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME LOW LEVELS LOOK
TO DRY FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND SO WILL ONLY EXPAND THE AREA
OF SPRINKLES.

AIR MASS WARMS UP BUT WIND FIELD BECOMES UNFAVORABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER
INCREASES. WILL WARM UP MAXES BUT KEEP THEM JUST BELOW THE WARMER
GUIDANCE.

INSTABILITY...THETA-LAPSE RATES...AND LIFT STAY ABOUT THE SAME OR
GET BETTER DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LIFT FROM A LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET APPROACHING. MODELS EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE
OF THE QPF AND EVEN THE AMOUNTS. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DUE TO THE DRY LOW LAYERS AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...BUT WILL
INCREASE THOSE POPS SLIGHTLY. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER
FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

MONDAY...STRONG UPPER JET/LEFT FRONT QUADRANT AND A EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THETA-E LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY ALOFT
ARE STILL THERE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS GOOD AS SUNDAY NIGHTS SETUP. ALSO
ANOTHER SLUG OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH DURING THIS TIME
HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING. SOME LIGHT QPF IS
PRODUCED BY THE MODELS. AM THINKING NOW IT WILL BE VIRGA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AND WILL INTRODUCE SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON.

MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THICKENS THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL CUT DOWN
ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND ONLY ENDED UP MAKING A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS START OUT IN GOOD/DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. HOWEVER WITH TIME THE MODELS
START DIVERGING WITH BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION OR LACK THEREOF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS PUSH
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER WITH
THE INCOMING TROUGH.

HOWEVER...THE GFS DEAMPLIFIES THE FLOW AND IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
FLATTER WITH THE FLOW DURING THE SAME TIME. BOTH MODELS ARE OUT OF
OR NEARLY OUT OF PHASE BY THE END. HARD TO TELL WHICH WILL BE RIGHT.
CURRENTLY PATTERN IS AMPLIFIED AND WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT THE FLATTER SOLUTION. HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE FLOW ALOFT
AFFECT THE SURFACE PATTERN AND SUBSEQUENT THERMAL FIELD.

CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND NATIONAL GUIDANCE
DISCUSSIONS...KEPT THE CENTRAL REGION INIT EXCEPT FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES
ALOFT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. CONSIDERING THAT
AND AFTER COLLABORATION...DID RAISE MAXES BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. NO MATTER WHAT THERE LOOKS TO BE A LOT OF TEMPERATURE
SWINGS WITH MODELS NOT DOING GOOD RECENTLY IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

WIDESPREAD POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TAF
PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS ALREADY SPREAD IN FROM NORTHEAST...INCLUDING
KMCK. STRATUS ADVANCES EAST THROUGH EVENING...LOWERING FURTHER
NEAR/AFTER SUNSET. IN ADDITION...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. LOWEST VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER EAST COLORADO AND COUNTIES ALONG COLORADO BORDER...INCLUDING
KGLD. UNSURE HOW LOW VIS DROPS FURTHER EAST AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM EAST. EITHER WAY...ANTICIPATE MVFR VIS WITH IFR VIS LIKELY TO
THE WEST. PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW LOW VISIBILITY DROPS ON WESTERN
EDGE OF FOG/STRATUS. FOG/STRATUS GRADUALLY ERODES SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TOMORROW. KMCK LIKELY REMAINS BELOW VFR LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST NOON TOMORROW IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH


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