Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 282050
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ALTHOUGH A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WEAK CYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE WARMER AIR MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
REALLY SATURATE UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL A LOW
LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM 12Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO BE FAST MOVING AND WARM
LAYER WILL NOT LAST LONG...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECASTS YET. OTHERWISE...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY. WARMER
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...SO EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

KGLD...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH ROUGHLY 23Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
11KTS. BY 00Z TERMINAL SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS AND CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR. NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH 08Z. AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER 15Z DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL AND SHOULD GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT MVFR CIGS
WONT BE FAR AWAY. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER 10KTS.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 20Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
AROUND 10KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES A BIT AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A RISE IN CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE FROM 21Z THROUGH 07Z.
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING AN EXPECTED
RETURN TO MVFR CIGS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
VICINITY. IF ONE OF THESE SHOULD MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL
VIS LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR RANGE AS WELL THROUGH 16Z. AFTER 16Z
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND NORTH WINDS JUST OVER
5KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...99


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