Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 010609
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1209 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AS
TRW/RW ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS CLEARED
THE FORECAST AREA. REGION WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR CONDITIONS
THRU THE REST OF TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION THRU
12Z MONDAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CALM WEATHER HAS RETURNED THIS EVENING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
WELL TO THE EAST OVER EAST KANSAS. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPS NEARING
THE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AT KGLD. PLACED 6SM BR GROUP INTO KGLD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CHANCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.