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000
FXUS63 KGRR 202329
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
729 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

EXPECT ONE MORE WARM DAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 70 INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN COLDER AIR AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN COOL
BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE STILL ON TRACK FOR A MONDAY EVENING FRONTAL
PASSAGE... WITH A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TOTAL QPF CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE
LUDINGTON AREA. ACTUALLY LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR COULD EVEN
STAY DRY UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY.

INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT SOME SKINNY CAPE IS PRESENT IN THE FCST
SOUNDINGS WITH MU CAPES UP TO 700 J/KG. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTAINING GUSTY
WINDS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS CONVECTION
ENCOUNTERS OUR DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. INVERTED-V LOOKING
SOUNDINGS MAY BE PRESENT AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT/SPEED OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SUSPECT WE WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU CLOUDS POURING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT IN COOL/CYCLONIC FLOW. HOWEVER DECREASING CLOUDS
SHOULD FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS PROBABLY BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WX WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

I EXPECT THE VFR CONDTIONS (CLEAR BELOW 12000 FT) TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL CLOUDS MOVE INTO
THE TAF SITES. EVEN THEN CEILINGS SHOULD LARGELY BE AT OR ABOVE
12000 FT INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER 21Z SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT
THE LAN...JXN...BTL AND MAYBE THE AZO TAF SITES HAVE THE GREATEST
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS (BASED ON HOW THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TOWARD EVENING). FOR NOW I HAVE PUT
VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES AND AM CALLING THAT GOOD. LATER TAF
FORECASTS SHOULD GIVE BETTER DETAIL TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
ONE POINT TO MAKE ABOUT THIS EVENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IS THAT WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE... I WOULD EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS (THUNDERSTORMS OR NOT) MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A HIGH FIRE DANGER EXISTS OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20 PCT.
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WITH
WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS.

HOWEVER SINCE WE ARE IN PRE GREEN UP MODE AND THE FINE FUELS ON
THE GROUND ARE EXTREMELY DRY... FIRES COULD SPREAD EASILY.

COORDINATED THE HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH THE DNR AND FOREST SERVICE
THIS MORNING. ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON THE HIGH
FIRE DANGER WITH CALLS TO ACTIONS. SOCIAL MEDIA AND NWS GRR
HOMEPAGE ALSO USED TO GET THE WORD OUT.

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY REDEVELOP ON MONDAY BEFORE THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT ARRIVE. HOWEVER DEW POINTS SHOULD BE
RISING THROUGH THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO MIN RH VALUES SHOULD
NOT BE AS LOW AS TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

MINOR FLOODING EXISTS ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT CROTON AND EVART.
THE DOWNWARD TREND CONTINUES ON ALL AREA RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES.
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE ADVISORIES DROP OFF THE LIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...LOCAL IMPACTS MAY STILL BE EVIDENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE MUSKEGON RIVER.

LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
BEST CHANCES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THATS
WHEN RAIN IS MORE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ADVERSE
AFFECTS ON RIVERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM