Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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121
FXUS61 KGYX 120832
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
332 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL DISSIPATE
INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MAINE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN IT`S
WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH
WESTERN NEW NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. MAY SEE A
STRAY SNOW SHOWER...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO SEE A DRY DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER MID TEENS NORTH AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT
SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
ON THE MID COAST AREA WHERE INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED AREA OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. CARIBOU STICKING WITH WATCHES AT THIS POINT AND SO
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MODELS BEFORE
DECIDING ON HEADLINES. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.

TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON SATURDAY IN FAR
EASTERN COASTAL ZONES BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER IN THE DAY.
LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
AS NORTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME
SUNNY BREAKS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT MOST OF WESTERN MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH AND IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS EXTREMELY COLD WITH THE
POLAR VORTEX DIPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL POUR INTO THE REGION WITH SPRAWLING DENSE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND MOST
OF MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS
AREAWIDE WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE LOWER NEGATIVE 20S.

LOOKING AT NAEFS AND GEFS ANOMALY INDICATORS FOR THIS EVENT SHOWS
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS IS. THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILES FOR GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES INDICATE
MINIMUMS FOR MOST HEIGHTS AROUND SUNDAY AT 00Z AND 06Z. THIS
MEANS THAT WE ARE FORECASTING AN EVENT HAS NOT OCCURRED WITHIN
THE NAEFS 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO THE
NAEFS R INTERVAL IS OUTSIDE CLIMATOLOGY AT 500MB OVER OUR REGION
AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

NOT SURPRISINGLY PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE IN THE BOTTOM
ONE PERCENTILE FOR THE NAEFS CLIMATE RECORD. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END QUICKLY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM
THE WEST. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING ARCTIC FRONT
AND WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE
LEFT THE WIND CHILL WATCH UP AS IS AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT WE WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST TIMING A LITTLE BETTER. THEREFORE
WILL LEAVE THIS FOR A LATER SHIFT TO ISSUE EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN ITS NECESSITY. SOME OF THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS APPROACH-40
F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TO THE SOUTH IT WONT BE MUCH BETTER WITH
-20 TO -30 F WILL BE MORE COMMON.

SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WARM UP ONLY SLIGHTLY INTO THE SINGLE NEGATIVE
DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND +5 TO +10 SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER TERRIBLY COLD NIGHT AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ABUTTING CANADA. THE
SILVER LINING DURING THIS TIME IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TRY AND PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. WHETHER
THIS HAPPENS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE... A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS WARMER AIR
OVERRIDES THE COLDER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. WENT
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ON WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WE MAY SEE
A WARMER DAY ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BY
THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR DAMMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT US NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKED
LIKE ANOTHER IDEAL TIME TO USE A NON-DIURNAL CURVE AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM... MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SNOW.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR THE BAYS THROUGH 8 AM AND OUTER
WATERS THROUGH NOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BORDERLINE GALES WILL BE NEEDED
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-018>022.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ006-008>010-012-013-015.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NHZ001>005-007-011.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SINSABAUGH/HANES



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