Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXHW60 PHFO 090200
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEK. CURRENT NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DECREASE LATER TODAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENTLE TRADE WINDS RETURN DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL. A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
NIGHTTIME DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF
KAUAI BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT/MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO
RETURN WITH LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWERS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES LIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 50/S THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
REBOUNDING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. CURRENT DEW POINTS
AROUND THE STATE REMAIN IN THE 50/S DENOTING THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. THE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO REVEAL A
BONE DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH 0.67 AND 0.56 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...RESPECTIVELY. WITH THE DRY AIR AND THE EXPECTED UPCOMING
LIGHT WINDS... NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50/S FOR SOME SEA LEVELS LOCATIONS WITH COLDER
TEMPS IN STORE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HONOLULU AIRPORT
TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 59 F LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE NEXT TWO
NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FEEL COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70/S FOR
MOST SEA LEVEL AREAS.

LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRY
ATMOSPHERE AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE. LIMITED WINDWARD
SHOWERS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODERATE TRADE WINDS
BUILD AND DEW POINTS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60/S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
MINIMAL AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS UP TO 7
THOUSAND FEET. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF REMAINS ELEVATED ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. A SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL AS A
SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS EXPOSED TO THE SWELL.

A VERY LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...PEAKING
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS PEAK SWELL HEIGHTS AT 16-18 FT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WELL ABOVE WARNING-
LEVEL SURF WILL BE PRESENT ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF
MOST SMALLER ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME SWELL WILL
ALSO WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTH FACING BEACHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRIDAY EVENING.

COASTAL WAVE RUN-UP WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS VERY LARGE
SWELL. THE GREATEST REACH WILL OCCUR DURING THE HIGH TIDES FROM
PREDAWN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS LARGE NW SWELLS
HAVE SCOURED BEACHES OF SAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH AND WEST
FACING COASTLINE. THE LACK OF SAND WILL ALLOW A GREATER WAVE RUN-
UP FOR THIS...AND ANY UPCOMING LARGE SWELLS RELATIVE TO EARLIER IN
THE SEASON WHEN MORE BEACH SAND WAS PRESENT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG
ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.