Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 310139
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
335 PM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS FAVORING
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. HURRICANE IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO PASS A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ALOHA STATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF BREEZY AND WETTER WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ESTABLISH IN THE WAKE OF IGNACIO...ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. ONCE IGNACIO MOVES AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS...
DECREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 330 PM HST...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND SE
SLOPES OF HALEAKALA IN MAUI. RADAR DATA ALSO SHOWED DEVELOPING
SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND...THE MOLOKAI E
MOUNTAINS AN THE KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU. RAINFALL REMAINS LIGHT TO
MODERATE IN GENERAL.

GLOBAL MODELS STILL DEPICT A ROBUST SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR N
OF THE ISLANDS...KEEPING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND REGIME IN
PLACE TONIGHT AND INTO MON. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 380 MILES E OF HILO AS OF 2 PM HST...MOVING NW AT 12
MPH.

ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...LATEST INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT PERSISTING RIDGING ALOFT...WHICH WILL HELP IN
KEEPING THE AIR MASS OVER THE ISLANDS RELATIVELY STABLE. PASSING
TRADE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT
TIMES.

THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE
FINAL OUTCOME OF HURRICANE IGNACIO AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES CLOSER TO
THE ALOHA STATE. LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU KEEPS IGNACIO ON A FAIRLY STEADY NW
TRACK...WITH THE CENTER PASSING ABOUT A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE
NE OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS MON THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...ANY
CHANGES ON THIS FORECAST SCENARIO COULD BRING THE HURRICANE CLOSER
TO THE ISLANDS...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE IN MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ON MON...THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND TURNING S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY WET
PATTERN TOWARDS MID WEEK AS THE HURRICANE PASSES TO THE NE OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON HURRICANE IGNACIO...PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER. ALSO...FOR ANY AREA UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
OR WARNING...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY WFO HONOLULU.

IGNACIO IS EXPECTED TO BLOCK THE TRADES AND BRING A GENERALLY WEAK S
FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN WED THROUGH FRI. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A SWATH OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CIRCULATION OF IGNACIO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM IGNACIO AND ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS PATTERN MAY FAVOR ENHANCED SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY WITH DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THESE SHOWERS COULD AFFECT NORMALLY DRY LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENTLE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED SHOWERS ONTO
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS. LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES ARE ALLOWING FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR BIG
ISLAND. WINDWARD SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE INLAND
AND LEEWARD SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED
MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ALL AREAS. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND NONE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WINDWARD WATERS OF
KAUAI AND OAHU...INCLUDING THE KAIWI AND THE KAUAI CHANNELS...
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
HURRICANE IGNACIO. LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
BEGINNING FIRST ON THE BIG ISLAND...THEN SPREADING UP THE ISLAND
CHAIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AS WELL AS A
SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF MAUI. THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER ON. ADDITIONAL HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR
THE OTHER ISLANDS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS
REMAINS IN EFFECT...BUT THE SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND COASTAL WATERS WERE
REMOVED FROM THE WARNING AND PLACED UNDER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
WHILE IGNACIO IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TRACK JUST TO THE NORTHEAST
AND OF THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ONLY A SMALL
CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF IGNACIO COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS INTO PARTS OF THE MARINE ZONES...PARTICULARLY OVER WINDWARD
WATERS.

FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING SURF AND MARINE IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE
IGNACIO...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS...
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGES AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGES ISSUED BY WFO
HONOLULU.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-LEEWARD HALEAKALA.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI-BIG
ISLAND.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR WINDWARD HALEAKALA-
SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...BEDAL











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