Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 200853 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1100 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE ALOHA STATE AND COASTAL WATERS
HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS ANA SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE ALOHA STATE. A
MODERATE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ESTABLISHING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT TRADES SHOULD THEN
PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS FAVORING
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND BRING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI COUNTY AND SURROUNDING WATERS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY.

AT 11 PM HST HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED AT 20.7N 162.2W...OR ABOUT
200 MILES WSW OF LIHUE KAUAI. ANA IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU
UNTIL 6 PM HST MON...AND IT WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY.
MEANWHILE...MAUI COUNTY IS NO LONGER UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
MOST OF THE SHOWERS OBSERVED ON RADAR OVER THE E HALF OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE PRODUCING MODERATE RAIN AT BEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT OVER OAHU AND KAUAI AS A
LARGE FIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANA LINGERS TO THE S AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE DECREASING ACROSS OAHU...PERIODS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUN MORNING. RADAR DATA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KAUAI COUNTY SO FAR THIS EVENING...BUT ANA REMAINS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...ANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE W AND NW AWAY
FROM THE ISLANDS AND ALLOW FOR A GENERALLY E/SE MODERATE FLOW TO
BEGIN ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. MODELS ARE NOW BACKING
DOWN FROM KEEPING A MORE S FLOW OVER THE W EDGE OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN...THUS WILL KEEP THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY E/SE.
A DRYING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ESTABLISHING E TO W AS AN INCREASINGLY
STABLE AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ANA.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH TUE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W EDGE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR WHICH HIGHER POPS
WILL BE KEPT IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW WINDS
RELAXING A LITTLE AND ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE KONA SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS STILL COVER FROM MAUI COUNTY
THROUGH KAUAI AND ITS WATERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR CB TOPS ABOVE FL350...PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS...AND GUSTY WINDS. AT PHLI EXPECT EXTENDED PERIODS
MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH TOMORROW.
OVER OAHU...INCLUDING PHNL AND PHJR...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY INTO THE MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO CLEAR
THEREAFTER. EASTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW
LEVEL TURB IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN REMAIN OVER MAUI
COUNTY...OAHU...AND KAUAI. AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING BETWEEN 150 AND
FL220 ALSO REMAINS POSTED OVER MAUI THROUGH KAUAI. MAUI COUNTY
AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CANCELLED BY 1000Z.

SEE TC SIGMET QUEBEC SERIES FOR TROPICAL STORM ANA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ANA HAS DEPARTED THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH AND WEST OF KAUAI. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN
EFFECT DUE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING KAUAI AND OAHU.

ELSEWHERE...THE WAVES PRODUCED BY ANA WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...NIIHAU...OAHU AND MOLOKAI
TONIGHT. AN ABOVE AVERAGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ALSO KEEP THE SURF
ELEVATED ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...NIIHAU...OAHU
AND MOLOKAI...AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
SHORELINES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH TUESDAY. A
NEW SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH
SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-
BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REYNES
MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...EATON





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