Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 300504
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1204 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WILL BE KEEPING WITH THE LOWER PCPN TREND(S) AS ADVERTISED BY THE
PROGS EARLIER. HOWEVER NOT TOO COMFORTABLE WITH DROPPING THE POPS
ENTIRELY...SO WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST A MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE
NEXT SET OF TAFS (POSSIBLY VCTS FOR THE MORE COASTAL SITES OF GLS
AND LBX). OTHERWISE BRIEF MVFR CIGS FOR SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SMALL SWIRL IN RADAR LOOP WITH CLUSTER OF SHOWERS...NOW JUST OFF
THE CHAMBERS COUNTY COAST...AND CREEPING NORTHWARD. SOME INCREASE
IN A CONVECTIVE BAND LAST FEW HOURS...AND EVEN A FEW WEAK
CIRCULATIONS SO WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SIGNS OF
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS. THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY TO
BRING MORE RAIN TO FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...MAINLY CHAMBERS
COUNTY...GALVESTON BAY...AND POSSIBLY LIBERTY AND GALVESTON
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE THINK WE ARE DONE FOR THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WILL KEEP 20 POPS INLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

ON SATURDAY...INGREDIENTS STILL IN PLACE FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS MAINLY ABOVE 2 INCHES. SOME QUESTION AS FAR
AS HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL HAVE AS MOST MESOSCALE MODELS AND ECMWF
KEEP ACTIVITY CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY
INLAND. LATEST NAM RUN ACTUALLY SHOWS A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT BANDS
SETTING UP...INITIALLY AT THE COAST BUT FARTHER INLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. GFS LIKEWISE HAS SOME INLAND DEVELOPMENT. HAVE ONLY
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SATURDAY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...TWEAKING PRECIP CHANCES LOWER FOR INLAND COUNTIES AS THINK
COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCATTERED THERE...BUT WILL LET MID SHIFT
EVALUATE FURTHER. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  90  75  94  76 /  20  30  20  40  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  76  92  77 /  30  60  50  50  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  85  81  89  82 /  60  70  50  50  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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