Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 031745
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1245 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST SW OF KGLS. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT FAR
INLAND BEFORE DIEING OUT. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE WEAK WARM FRONT
WAS STILL LOCATED OFFSHORE. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION AND NAM12
MODELS STILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN CHANCES OFF THE COAST.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVER SE TEXAS WILL SLOWLY MODIFY TODAY AS THE
FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INLAND. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS... SAVE FOR SOME MEAGER
MOISTURE INCREASES OBSERVED ON GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING /1.2 TO 1.4 INCH PWATS THIS MORNING COMPARED TO 1 TO 1.2
INCH PWATS YESTERDAY/. A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GULF ON 05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS... ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT WITH AN AXIS OF 2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WARM FRONT AS OF 345 AM CDT. THE SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
DESPITE LITTLE CHANGE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BETWEEN YESTERDAY
AND TODAY /HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100/...
ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS WILL HELP IT FEEL A BIT HOTTER THAN
YESTERDAY.

LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST HEADING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING... WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
ALLOWING FOR A SHOT AT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER
INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHLIGHTING THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN /20 POPS/ FOR THE HOUSTON METRO AND
AREAS EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE... BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR MISS AT BEST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PRESENTLY TO OUR WEST WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD ON TUESDAY AND
SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF THE WEST COAST SWINGS
TOWARDS CALIFORNIA.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH WEST TEXAS
THURSDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE CENTURY MARK
AT MANY INLAND SITES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO LIMIT MENTIONABLE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY A SPIT OR TWO OF RAIN
POSSIBLE AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BEGIN INCREASING AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION WITH PEAK AFTERNOON VALUES EXCEEDING 105 BY MID-WEEK...
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SITES FLIRTING WITH HEAT INDEX CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT OVER THE GULF WATERS CAN BE SEEN VIA GOES PW
PLOT AS A SWATH OF 1.9"+ PW POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE
SPLIT CHANNEL. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WERE ONGOING ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON
THIS MORNING. AS THE BOUNDARY SLOW CRAWLS NORTHWARD EXPECT THAT
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL FUEL CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER TEXAS GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE NORTHERLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. A MORE
DIURNAL PATTERN EVOLVES WITH STRONGER WINDS 10-15 KTS INCREASING
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AT TIMES AT NIGHT THEN RELAXING IN THE MORNING
OVER THE GULF WATERS. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE
CARIBBEAN SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND MAY BRING ANOTHER
WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 45

AVIATION...

VFR NOW. SOME SHALLOW PATCH FOG POSSIBLE AT LBX THIS MORNING AROUND
SUNRISE. EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT IAH AND TERMINALS TO THE
NORTH WITH SUNNY SKIES BECOMING PC WITH A FEW CU AS SWATH OF GULF
MOISTURE MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE AREA FROM PSX-HOU
SOUTHWARD THE NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT OF COVERAGE BUT IT APPEARS THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND AFTER 18Z AND MAY BE CONFINED TO
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. HAVE ADDED VCSH TO SGR/LBX/GLS BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THESE CLOSELY LATE THIS MORNING GIVEN THAN ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND VISBY REDUCTIONS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  98  76  98  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  97  78  96  79 /  10  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  91  83  90  83 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...44


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