Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 180955
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
455 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WET FCST TO CONTINUE TODAY BUT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF FLOOD-
ING. GROUNDS WET FROM RAINS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL RAINS TODAY WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALREADY SEEING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING
AS THE CONTINUED WAA FLOW COLLIDES WITH THE MORE S/SE MOVING DIS-
TURBANCE COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX. ALSO SEEING HINTS OF YET
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRYING TO DIVE DOWN FROM NORTH TX. THESE SYS-
TEMS COMBINED WITH THIS STILL VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS ALREADY
IN PLACE SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THRU
THIS AFTN/EVE.

PER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE REST OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND FORECAST
SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING BUT CONSENSUS NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS NEXT
COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. PROGS APPEAR TO BE HAVING ISSUES WITH
THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND MAY BE EXAGGERATING ITS
IMPACT ON THE MAIN UPPER FLOW/PATTERN. AS SUCH WILL NOT BE CHANG-
ING THE EXTENDED FCSTS (TOO MUCH) OF FROPA MON (ALONG WITH COOLER
AND DRIER CONDTIONS NEXT WEEK). 41

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
AND MAY HAVE A CLUSTER MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON
FRIDAY...AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER SETX/LA AND WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY RELAX ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD (IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT-FAVORING IT
ATTM) MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY OF COURSE DEPENDING
ON HOW WELL THE MODELS HANDLE ODILE AND THE NEXT TROUGH THROUGH
THE EASTERN U.S.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE REVAMPED THE TAFS THIS MORNING TO SWING THE SHOWERS TO THE
MORNING HOURS AND THE TSRA TO THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WITH THE
RADAR/WV SHOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM NE TO SJT AND THE S/W OVER SHV
ARRIVING LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE SYSTEM NEAR SAN ANTONIO WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR SAGGING
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. IFR/VLIFR PLAGUING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
AND CONCERNED IT MAY REACH IAH THIS MORNING FOR AN HOUR. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE AFTER 23Z THROUGH 03-06Z.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  71  88  71  91 /  80  40  50  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  71  88  72  90 /  80  40  60  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  77  86  79  88 /  80  40  60  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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