Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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434
FXUS64 KHGX 062347
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
547 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH DISSIPATING 3500-8000FT SCT/BKN DECK IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE. NORTH WINDS SHOULD RELAX QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. AROUND SUNRISE IT SHOULD BE
OVER THE MAJOR HUBS WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS THEN WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH SLIDES AWAY TO THE EAST. ON
SUNDAY A LARGE PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BRINGING CIRRUS TO THE REGION AS LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS. NEXT COLD FRONT NEARING CLL
AROUND 09Z MONDAY AND IAH 12Z MONDAY...SHOULD BE DRY VFR FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND NORTHWEST WINDS.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED SW OF SHREVEPORT
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE S-SW OF THE SFC LOW. WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS HAD MOVED ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN ZONES WITH EVEN SOME
SHOWERS BUILDING INTO THE REGION ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST. THE
SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND ARE LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z.
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN BENIGN FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE UPPER
FLOW GENERALLY REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX ON MONDAY WITH A A SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MON/TUE. A WARM UP BEGINS ON WEDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
AND ONSHORE WINDS RETURN. LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVE SLOWLY E-NE ON FRIDAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX FRI NITE OR EARLY SATURDAY AS
THE SFC FEATURES PUSHES EAST. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF AND NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. 43

MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING OUR EASTERN WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NEARSHORE
CAUTION/OFFSHORE ADVISORIES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL TEXAS WILL FLATTEN THE
GRADIENT OUT AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN...LOWERING SEAS THROUGH THE
SUNRISE HOUR. A QUIET SUNDAY WEATHER PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE
PRODUCES LIGHT VEERING BREEZES AND A CALM SEA STATE.  THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF MONDAY MORNING. WINDS IN
ITS WAKE WILL ACHIEVE ADVISORY LEVELS...AT LEAST CAUTION OVER THE
BAYS...THROUGH LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MID TO LATE WEEK
WEATHER. THE BACKSIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF A SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
CENTERED HIGH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO GENERALLY MAINTAIN 10 TO 15
KNOT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      36  63  39  57  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              39  64  42  60  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            46  60  47  59  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45



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