Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 271141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

KIAH/KHOU/KSGR/KLBX/KGLS...currently have VFR CIGS but could see a
brief period of MVFR this morning as SHRA/TSRA become organized
over the next couple of hours. Radar already showing showers and a
few storms forming along the coast. The 09z HRRR had a decent
handle on convective trends with showers and storms forming along
the coast and then spreading inland 14-20z. The latest 10z HRRR
has storms forming more over Houston by 16z so will need to watch
these trends. Activity may come to an end during the late
afternoon rather than later in the evening. Main threats from
storms beside lightning will be gusty winds. Overnight expect VFR
CIGS to continue with light winds. May still get some low stratus
to form in the morning and then possibly more convection for the
late morning hours Thursday.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...currently VFR CIGS but have had a mix of IFR/MVFR
CIGS as well at times. Trends in HRRR support convection
developing later in the morning with possibly TSRA in the early
afternoon. Will go with VCTS for now but could need TSRA depending
upon how convection develops. Storms should dissipate later in
the afternoon. VFR CIGS are expected overnight but with winds
decoupling and clear skies...could get some decent radiational
cooling. Fog could then develop Thursday morning and likely
restrict visibility.




A weak upper low was shearing out over Louisiana and far eastern
Texas early this morning. The best moisture axis evident on water
vapor and the RAP analysis was across the Louisiana coast west-
southwest into the Upper Texas coastal waters and across Matagorda
Bay. RAP PW/s were between 2.2 and 2.3 inches in these areas.
Drier air rotating around the upper low was evident with PW/s 2
inches along and north of a line from about College Station to

The model consensus for today is for the deeper area of moisture
to move inland and north. Best chances for rain and thunderstorms
will be along the coast this morning with the storms moving inland
over the northern counties this afternoon. With the PW/s still
near 2.3 inches, there is a chance for locally heavy rainfall with
the stronger storms later this morning especially for locations
along and south of the I-10 corridor. The cloud cover and rain
areas will again make for a difficult temperature forecast. Still,
the potential is there for many inland locations to reach into the
lower 90s this afternoon.

For the remainder of the week, drier air will work its way
overhead. Although the models keep a weakness in the upper ridge
over Southeast Texas, 500 mb heights actually rise over the
weekend and through the first half of next week. This combination
should result in daytime highs reaching into the lower and mid 90s
and for at least afternoon and early evening chances for showers
and thunderstorms.


Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting out
this morning over the upper Texas coast. Like the last couple of
days, thunderstorm activity should spread inland during the day.
Overall coverage of storms should be less today as moisture
decreases some and the upper level trough moves west. Winds this
morning are running about 15 knots from the south for much of the
Upper Texas Coast. Winds should decrease later today and tonight.
Light to moderate southerly winds should continue into the

Seas will be lingering around 3 feet today but decrease some as
winds decrease for the end of the week. Tide levels will likely
remain near normal levels or maybe a half foot above normal.



College Station (CLL)      93  76  95  76  96 /  50  20  30  10  20
Houston (IAH)              93  77  95  77  95 /  50  20  40  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            89  83  92  83  91 /  60  20  20  10  20




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