Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 271130
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
330 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PATCHY LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE WEEKEND WILL BE
CLOUDIER WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTH. A WINTER STORM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOG...WHILE STILL AN ISSUE THIS MORNING...IS VERY PATCHY AND STILL
IN THE HANFORD/KINGSBERG/VISALIA AREA. AGAIN...WITH NO INFLUX OF
MOISTURE...THE FOG COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY PATCHY FOR THIS
MORNING AND THAT OF FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
OCCURS OVER THE REGION.

MODELS STILL SHOWING THE RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE REGION BREAKING
DOWN AND SHIFTING EAST IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE STORM
CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND PLACE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THIS CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LOW LEVEL MIXING AND THE OPENING OF
THE DOOR FOR A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENT TIMING HAS THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY ALLOWING FOR THE
ONSET OF PRECIP AROUND SATURDAY MORNING...AND MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

THE SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY WITH THEN MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING FOR A CONTINUATION OF PRECIP. THIS SECOND PIECE OF
ENERGY...WHILE NOT STRONGER...MAY ALLOW FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO REACH
AREAS CLOSER TO KERN COUNTY. YET...RAIN AND SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY
REMAIN LIGHT...EVEN WITH THE SECOND STORM. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
MODELS SHOW SLIGHT RIDGING AHEAD OF THE DEEP LOW OFFSHORE.
CERTAINTY IS VERY LOW ON HOW THE LOW WILL BEHAVE...BASED ON ITS
CUT-OFF NATURE. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY. CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN/NAVY-NOGAPS
SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS IN THE LONG TERM AROUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER GOING WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
AND WAIT FOR THE BIG STORM TO ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE. AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST AND LOCAL
LIFR IN FOG UNTIL 17Z THU. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON THURSDAY NOVEMBER 27 2014...
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS
REGISTERED IN FRESNO...KERN...KINGS...MADERA...MERCED AND TULARE
COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948
KFAT 11-28       76:1891     46:1972     52:1966     28:1969
KFAT 11-29       76:1947     47:1905     58:1901     26:1975

KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
KBFL 11-28       82:1993     46:2000     55:1904     28:1905
KBFL 11-29       80:1924     51:2006     57:1938     28:1919
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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