Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 282223
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
323 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES.

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE...AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE DURING NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MAINLY FROM AVIATION CONTRAILS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS CENTRAL CA. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE OVER
THE SIERRA IS MOVING NORTH WHILE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER
THE SIERRA. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER IN MUCH OF THE
AREA THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL START CHANGING OVERNIGHT AS
A WEATHER SYSTEM OFF THE NCAL MOVES INLAND TOWARD THE PAC NW. THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY SATURDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE KERN COUNTY AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIG A TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA DISPLACING
THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
MARINE AIR INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SYNOPTIC COOLING WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS CENTRAL
CA.

A STRONG SW UPPER JET OF 70+KT WILL ALIGN WITH STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES AND OVER THE
SIERRA CREST TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
THE SECOND DISTURBANCE. THESE WINDS MAY KICK UP AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. SOME OF THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTH VALLEY
PRODUCING UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS IN THE VALLEY FACING SLOPES OF THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER MODELS DO NOT PROG ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION.

MODEL CONSISTENCY IS GOOD INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING A
TROF PATTERN OVER THE WEST COAST. EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMUP AS THE
TROUGH WEAKENS SOME...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
OPERATIONAL MODELS PROG ANOTHER COLD WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING
NCAL AND THE PACIFIC NW NEXT WEEKEND. ALBEIT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST IS WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO
SMOKE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895
KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966

KBFL 08-28      109:1944     71:1911     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     77:1911     85:1909     45:1903
KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     85:1909     45:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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