Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
000
FXUS66 KHNX 211031
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
331 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA TODAY AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE CAUSING TODAY STORMS
EXITS THE REGION...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL RETURN WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE SIERRA
YESTERDAY IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. WE HAVE KEPT IN CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE SIERRA. IT WONT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY AS
THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST. HOWEVER THE CENTER WILL
HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE LOW CENTER TO MOVE OUT BY TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST BY WED NIGHT AS A DEEP
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NRN CA COAST. THIS ACTUALLY
LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF THE UPCOMING FALL
SEASON...ONLY A FEW DAYS AFTER THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ON THE FIRST TASTE OF FALL NEXT WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 TO EVEN 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
SAT AND SUN. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER WE ARE ADVERTISING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
SIERRA... WITH EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH
QPF ATTM. WE MAY BE BUMPING UP POPS AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
CREST FROM 18Z TODAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-21      102:1949     72:1945     74:1983     42:1968
KFAT 09-22      104:1949     67:1923     72:1999     41:1968
KFAT 09-23      105:1949     66:1904     70:2011     47:1968

KBFL 09-21      105:2003     74:1945     73:1983     37:1908
KBFL 09-22      105:2003     70:1923     74:1949     40:1908
KBFL 09-23      107:1943     71:1986     72:1949     31:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.