Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 222100
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATION
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN AZ AND
IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO OUR CWFA IN A
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. VISIBLE IMAGERY IS INDICATING EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE
EAST SIDE AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE TO YDAY AS OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS.

MEANWHILE...RADAR COMPOSITES ARE INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AS WELL
AS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS EAST OF LAKE ISABELLA AND THE
KERN COUNTY DESERTS. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST
OF OUR AREA AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN
SITUATED CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AS AS THE 12Z WRF IS INDICATING CAPES
BETWEEN 600 AND 1000 J/KG AS WELL AS LI/S BELOW 0 DEG C NEAR THE
CREST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFF THE CA COAST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA WILL
DRY OUT AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD.

THE 12Z AND 18Z WRF RUNS HAVE PICKED UP ON A SHORTWAVE THAT THE
GFS RUN HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR A FEW DAYS DROPPING SOUTHWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. RH PROGS ARE INDICATING VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT IT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
INCREASED WINDS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE OFFSHORE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PUSH INLAND ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH
RISES IN HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL THICKNESSES RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MAY. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT DROPPING AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PAC
NW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A WEAK MOISTURE
STARVED TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL CA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE MAIN
IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE IS THAT IT WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST. THE RIDGE IS THEN
PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AND STRENGTHEN OVER CA LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SIERRA NEVADA IN SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY AND AGAIN AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SIERRA FOOTHILLS...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS
AND MOJAVE DESERT...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY. PRECIP STARTING AGAIN AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-22      104:1967     67:2010     71:1892     43:1909
KFAT 05-23      103:1967     65:1916     71:2000     44:1960
KFAT 05-24      103:1943     64:1916     68:2001     41:1953

KBFL 05-22      102:2001     68:2010     73:1967     36:1903
KBFL 05-23      107:1904     67:2010     73:2000     44:1903
KBFL 05-24      107:1982     68:1980     76:1982     41:1916
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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