Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 221200
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
400 AM PST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A weak weather system will bring a chance of light
precipitation north of Fresno County today. A stronger system
will bring rain and mountain snow to much of the area Wednesday
night through Thursday night. High pressure will build back over
the area by the weekend bringing dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The cold front which has been approaching our area
has stalled out to the north of our area. While this system has
brought rain and mountain snow to much of Norcal, the
precipitation has so far remained to the north of our area. This
system is expected to dissipate just top the north of our area and
might produce some light precipitation in Merced and Mariposa
Counties as well as over Yosemite National Park.

WRF indicating shortwave ridging over central CA on Tuesday.
Northerly flow ahead of the ridge will limit widespread fog
development tonight and only patchy fog is anticipated over the
San Joaquin Valley on Tuesday morning. By Wednesday some recovery
in temperatures is expected and afternoon highs will rise to
above seasonal normals.

A more significant system is progged to drop southeast out of the
Gulf of AK on Wednesday and push through central CA on Wednesday
Night and Thursday. While guidance has been backing off on
precipitation amounts with this system, it is still expected to
significant precipitation to our area with half an inch to an
inch of liquid precipitation expected for the Southern Sierra
Nevada from Kings Canyon Northward and a quarter to a half an inch
further south in Tulare County. Meanwhile, the San Joaquin Valley
is expected to receive a quarter to half an inch of rainfall
north of Kern County while the south end of the valley and the
Kern County Mountains are expected to pick up between a tenth of
an inch and a quarter inch. Snow levels are expected to between
5000 and 5500 feet on Wednesday Night lowering to 3000 to 4000
feet by late Thursday afternoon. Light snow will be possible over
the major passes in Kern County Thursday afternoon and evening
which could adversely impact travel.

The medium range models and their ensemble means are in good
agreement with moving this system to the east of our area on
Friday as high pressure strengthens off the CA coast. The high is
expected to build inland over the weekend which will bring a
period of dry weather and slight above normal temepratures over
the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Some night and
morning fog will be possible in the San Joaquin Valley by this
weekend as clearing skies, light winds, inversion conditions and
residual low level moisture provide for better conditions for fog
development.

&&

.AVIATION...Areas of MVFR and local IFR conditions possible in
showers, with mountain obscurations over the Sierra Nevada,
through 18Z Monday for mainly Fresno County northward. Areas of
MVFR and local IFR visibilities in mist developing in the San
Joaquin valley after 09z Tuesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail across the central CA interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...On Monday January 22 2018... Fireplace/Wood
Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in
Fresno... Kern... Kings and Tulare Counties. Further information
is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

public...DS
avn/fw...JEB
synopsis...DS

weather.gov/hanford



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