Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 282048
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR/8


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