Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 271037
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
637 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm late summer conditions will prevail through the weekend. The
chance of showers will increase as well, as moisture from the
tropics moves across the area early next week. A strong cold
front is expected to move across the region late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 637 AM Saturday...No changes to the ongoing forecast as
mainly clear skies greet sunrise. The former circulation of Fiona
south of Bermuda contained winds near 35 mph east of the center
per aircraft measurement last night, so it will be interesting to
see what transpires today as this feature moves west toward the
Carolinas taking in the dry air aloft. The previous forecat
discussion follows.

A gleaming start to Saturday shaping up with a clear early
morning view of a waning crescent moonrise, signaling clear skies
to the east. A surface ridge axis positioned SW to NE across the
area was resulting in a relaxed pressure and wind regime. Vapor
movies shows an upper ridge north of the region with an embedded
impulse currently positioned across eastern VA and the Delmarva
coast. Vad Wind Profile this morning shows 30-40 KT mid- level NE
flow, which will usher deepening H7 moisture today. As this
impulse is driven SW today, a shower or TSTM may pop over Bladen
or Robeson county in the middle afternoon, spreading SW into the
SC interior in the late afternoon. Convection may linger tonight
along the I-95 corridor as a secondary upper wave transits the
interior overnight. Maximums above normal today, middle 90s over
the deeper interior and lower 90s across the coastal interior in a
light onshore wind. Min temps daybreak Sunday 71-74, 75-77 at the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Primary headline this period is a
transition to a tropical influence as the circulation of former
Fiona drifts landward toward the Cape Fear region late in the
period Monday night into Tuesday. This feature will be watched
closely over the next few days. The other tropical item of note
remains arrival of long period swell from the Gaston wind-field on
Sunday. Wave amplitude will remain low, but could build to 2 ft
every 13-14 seconds Monday, prompting an significant rip current
risk. Pop values increase gradually through the period as the
tropical influence does so, especially late in the period as PWAT
values begin to notably rise.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Increasing tropical moisture across the
area along with persistent on shore flow will produce an increase
in shwrs/tstms through mid week. Looks like the combination of
moisture remnants from Fiona along with tropical wave/low reaching
up from the south, as well as, weakening ridge moving north away
from Carolinas will produce plenty of clouds and more widespread
shower activity especially along and just off the coast on Tues
into Wed. GFS shows greatest pcp water values up over 2 inches
located over area Tues night into Wed. By Thurs this moisture
should be pushed off to the east as mid to upper trough pushes a
cold front into the Carolinas. The winds will shift around to the
N-NW on back end of tropical wave/low which may help to advect in
some drier air but overall expect front to produce enhanced
convective activity, mainly farther south over South Carolina by
Friday.

Summerlike temps in the mid 80s to 90 should take a dip heading
into end of period down into the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 06Z...Predominately VFR conditions for the forecast period.
Some light fog is possible early this morning, best chance at LBT.
The derived soundings look reasonably well to support fog, however
soil temperatures will be a hindrance. Saturday, mainly a
northeast wind, becoming E-SE along the coast. An isolated shower
or storm is possible around max heating. HRRR model shows some
convective development along sea breeze front just inland from
coastal terminals.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Potential for sub VFR due to areas of haze or fog
early each morning and with isolated convection from Sunday
through Tuesday. Otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 637 AM Saturday...Smooth sailing, although overall lack of
wind may offer slow sailing. A friendly marine environment on tap
regardless, as light winds and manageable seas prevail today and
tonight. Seas of 2-4 feet slightly elevated in ESE waves 2-3 ft
every 11 seconds originating from circulation of former Fiona.
This should slowly decay to 9 seconds overnight. Light onshore
winds today and tonight.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Decent marine conditions will prevail
this period in terms of welcoming light winds, generally NE-E
Sunday and Monday. Increasing swell waves may elevate sea heights
to 4 ft Monday night, and an increase in showers and TSTMS can be
expected, as a tropical disturbance, and what was once Fiona,
approaches Cape Fear late Monday night. Mariners should monitor
the latest forecasts regarding this feature.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Diminishing longer period E-SE swells, up
to 14 seconds, will mix in with E-NE wind waves through the
period. Overall expect winds in the 10 to 15 kt range and seas 2
to 4 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RGZ/MRR



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