Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 192227
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
527 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will move offshore tonight. A series of mid
level systems will bring unsettled conditions Friday through
Monday. The strongest system will move across Sunday and into
early Monday. High pressure will build back in toward the middle
of next week. A weak cold front will move into the southeast and
stall in the region on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Copious moisture streaming NE out of the GOMEX
will start to impinge upon the area through the period. Initially
this will take the form of cirrus/cirrostratus clouds but the
overnight period will introduce some mid and low level moisture as a
warm front approaches from the south. The mid level ridging will
shunt most of the precipiation north and west of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Warm front lifting to the north on Friday and
mid level ridging should allow for waning rain chances as the day
wears on. Although cloud cover will decrease slightly it will still
be a mostly cloudy afternoon. Despite this most locales should warm
to 70 or better. Similarly the clouds will help bring a very mild
Friday night with low temperatures just a few degrees shy of
seasonable highs. Late Friday night into Saturday the mid level
ridging moves offshore while another slug of mositure lifts out of
the Gulf of Mexico. Rain chances will increase as the day wears on.
Overall amounts may be rather limited however as the flattening
ridge does hold on just enough to shunt most of the shortwaves north
and west of the local area. This will hold less true heading into
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Uncertainty remains higher than normal with
respect to the system affecting the southeast Sun and Mon. Period
beings with warm front north of the forecast area and what is likely
to be convection ongoing across the region. Initially coverage may
be limited but as instability increases Sun coverage will try to
increase. The biggest limiting factor during the day is likely to be
mid level dry air which may or may not be present. If there is an
abundance of dry air Sun afternoon, convection may end up rather
isolated. However anything that does develop would have the
potential to produce damaging wind gusts given low level jet of 40
to 50 kt.

Another round of unsettled conditions is expected Sun night and
early Mon as the stacked low moves from the southern Mississippi
Valley into the southeast. Severe weather is expected ahead of the
cold front, but the biggest unanswered question is where. Latest
GFS/ECMWF keep the bulk of the low level instability south of the
forecast area. Favored area for severe weather will depend on
location of occlusion/triple point low and is something guidance
continues to struggle with. Worst case, as far as severe threat
goes, would be a high shear/low cape event Sun evening/night but
confidence in this is rather low. 5h low moves overhead Mon which
would tend to generate some diurnal convection Mon afternoon but
potential for strong to severe storms Mon would be very low.

Storm exits northeast Mon night as weak surface and mid level ridge
move in from the west. In coming airmass has origins in the west
with very little cold air to speak of. Ridging aloft helps ensure a
couple dry days Tue/Wed as mid level subsidence prevents any upward
motion. During the middle of next week another stacked low will move
northeast from the plains through the Great Lakes and into
southeastern Canada. A cold front trailing the low will move into
the region before stalling as it ends up laying parallel to the flow
aloft. Increasing deep moisture in the presence of the front and
weak dynamics may generate a few light showers later Thu and Thu
night. Temperatures will be above to well above climo through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 00Z...High pressure will slip off the coast overnight,
allowing an upper level system to move into the region tomorrow.
Time height and numerical info indicate some MVFR conditions are
expected toward morning. The inland terminals could see some
scattered light rain, with visibilities remaining above IFR. Winds
will eventually shift to the southwest by Friday afternoon as warm
air advection begins.

Extended Outlook...IFR ceilings and vsbys are possible inland
Fri night into Sat morning as a warm front and rainfall event
develops. IFR conditions will again be possible late Sunday into
Monday as a strong low pressure system impacts the area.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...A poorly defined gradient will bring
minimal conditions overnight. Additionally any swell energy will
remain well offshore and also be shadowed locally by Cape
Hatteras. The end result will be light NE winds and waves no
larger than 2 ft.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...A south to southwesterly flow will become
established on Friday as a warm front lifts northward across
the area. With wind speeds capped at 10 kt or so through the
veering seas will remain no larger than 2 ft. Southwesterly flow
continues to be light into Saturday but may start taking up
more space across the western Atlantic. Wave periods may
increase slightly as a result.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Storm system affecting the region Sun and
Mon will create hazardous conditions across the near shore
waters for much of the period. Southerly winds will approach 25
kt at times Sun and Mon with gusts near gale force. The
prolonged period of south to south winds exceeding 20 kt will
build seas well over 6 ft with potential for double digit seas
in favored locations. Storm exits northeast during Mon and by
evening southwest flow will be west or even northwest. Gradient
is slow to relax and winds will remain near 20 kt through Mon
night and the first part of Tue. High pressure building in from
the west Tue afternoon will bring about a reduction in offshore
flow with speeds dropping below 15 kt by early evening. Offshore
flow will lead to a gradual reduction in seas with waves
dropping below 6 ft Tue morning and down to 1 to 3 ft by the end
of the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43



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