Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 220745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
345 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

A seasonably cool weekend is on tap followed by a brief warm-up
Monday. A reinforcing shot of dry and cool air Monday night will
set the stage for dry weather and seasonable temperatures this
upcoming week. A low pressure system will approach the area late
next week.


As of 300 AM Saturday...Back to reality, weather-wise that is.
Autumn is here! Longwave pattern change aloft is still ongoing but
basically will result in an upper level trof affecting the
Eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. and upper ridging across the western
2/3rds. This pattern resembles what the ILM CWA should see during
this time of the year. Initially will be under cyclonic flow sfc
and aloft to start today but by this aftn, strong high pressure
accompanied by modified Canadian air will become the major player
affecting the ILM CWA this period. Various model rh time height
displays for locations across the FA suggest enough moisture in
the lower levels for possible few/sct diurnally driven and flat
topped cu...mainly northern portions of the FA. In addition could
see thin high altocu or cirrus during the day via various model
soundings. The Fa will se widespread 60s for todays highs...A far
cry from the late summer time temps the FA has been basking in.
The CAA under gusty NW winds will both subside by late this aftn.
Tonight, clear skies expected with the the center of the sfc high
parking along the Gulf Coast states. It`s center will be just far
enough away to keep winds active across the FA and thus prevent a
night of radiational cooling that could have posed problems well
inland given sfc dewpoints progged in the upper 30s. Tonights lows
will be in the low to mid 40s.


As of 315 AM Saturday...The change in the longwave pattern having
been completed will result in Autumn weather across the FA this
period with temps near normal. The center of sfc high over the
gulf coast states will continue to affect the fa on Sunday but the
difference from Saturday is that the FA will be under neutral
air advection under w to nw winds with few gusts in the teens.
For Monday...WAA ahead of the next cold front will push max temps
well into the 70s, slightly above the norm, under sw to w winds.
The cold front, a dry one, will drop across the area late Monday
afternoon thru the early evening. CAA under N to NE winds to
ensue as Canadian high pressure drops toward the area from the
upper Midwest. Mainly clear skies thruout this period except
possible sct/bkn low or mid level clouds associated with the
cold front. As for overall temps, stayed close to a blend of the
avbl model Mos Guidance.


As of 3 AM Saturday...In wake of a dry frontal passage Monday
night, continentally dry air will be refreshed into the region
Tuesday, transitioning to a nearly locked high pressure wedge
configuration of longevity Wednesday into next weekend. The
implications regarding sensible weather begins with notably cooler
minimum temperatures inland versus the coast in NE flow, with
spits of -RA favored near the coast beginning Thursday and
extending into next Saturday. Maximum temperatures will run near
normal this period, but minimums may settle above average over the
eastern zones as a maritime influence appears likely.


As of 06Z...SKC/VFR. Cold air advection in wake of a cold front
moving farther offshore this morning, will impart moderately
gusty and dry northwest winds, easing late in the day. Ideal
flight conditions tonight amid a crisp and clear atmosphere with
W-WNW wind 5 knots or less and plenty stars.

Extended Outlook...Expect VFR Saturday night through Wednesday.


As of 330 AM Saturday...SCA conditions to prevail thru this aftn
for the ILM SC waters, and to early this evening for the ILM NC

The tightened sfc pg combined with excellent CAA will result in NW
winds at 15 to 25 kt with a few higher gusts this morning. The
gradient will slacken tonight and the CAA will come to an end.
Looking at winds subsiding into the 10 to 20 kt range.

Significant seas will be dominated by locally produced, low
period wind driven waves. An underlying but slowly decaying, ese
to se, 3 to 4 foot, swell at 8 to 10 second periods will continue
to affect the local waters this period. Normally, it would be
pancake conditions looking from the beach. But, this beaten down
swell still should make it to the beaches with a nice feathered
look to it.

As of 315 AM Saturday...The sfc pressure pattern and modest
gradient will yield w to nw winds at 10 to 15 kt with few higher
gusts, thru Sunday Night. This a result of the high`s center
being positioned over the Gulf Coast States. By Monday, looking at
the approach of a cold front with winds temporarily going sw to w.
The sfc pg will remain somewhat modest yielding 10 to occasionally
15 kt speeds. The cfp slated to be a dry one, will occur from late
Monday afternoon thru early evening. The sfc pressure pattern and
tightened gradient after the cfp will yield n to ne winds at 15 to
20 kt with hier gusts.

Significant seas will be on a subsiding trend Sunday through
Monday...from 3 to 5 ft dropping to 2 to 3 ft. In addition, the
underlying ESE ground swell will have decayed to around 1 foot.
Look for the NE wind driven waves to gain prominence Monday night.

As of 3 AM Saturday...Tuesday begins turbulent on the waters as a
moderate to heavy chop is instigated by frisky NE winds in wake of
a dry cold front. A small craft advisory or an exercise caution
statement will be needed and likely already in effect by daybreak
Tuesday. A stubborn high pressure wedge will maintain a relatively
tight packing of the pressure gradient Wednesday and Thursday and
this may be a prolonged series of caution headlines and not ideal
boating conditions as fresh NE winds maintain moderate windspeeds.
No TSTMS or restrictions to visibility expected this period.


As of 315 AM Saturday...Current Coastal flood advisory remains in
effect til 500 am.

Looks like the next chance for the Lower Cape Fear River to spill
out of it`s banks will occur between the hours of 130 pm and 530
pm. At this point, it could breach the Advisory flood thresholds
of 5.5 ft MLLW as forecast and observed at the downtown
Wilmington lower Cape Fear river gage. The following are high
tides for the gage on the Lower Cape Fear River...

High tide 3:23 AM on Sat.
High tide 3:56 PM on Sat.
High tide 4:22 AM on Sun.
High tide 4:53 PM on Sun.


NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ254-
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-


TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...dch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.