Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 300258
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1058 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Intermittent rain will stay in the area through Tuesday until the
tropical system makes its slow departure. Moisture will hang
around for most of the week so while sunshine should return in
part there will still be a scattering of storms each day. A cold
front will approach next weekend and may stall over the area
keeping unsettled weather through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 1030 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Bonnie circulation is
at the moment located over eastern central sc for the moment.
The pcpn activity via the mosaic 88d reflectivity indicates a
rather non-threatening look to the pcpn both intensity and areal
coverage. Have already knocked down POPs earlier and will hit it
again given the latest trends. Due to the nocturnal aspect of pcpn
and tropical systems, thinking that an increase in overnight pops
from the rather docile moisture feeds that continue to move
onshore. I believe if ssts were another 5 degrees warmer, the
onshore moving convective plumes would be alot more active by this
time. Will still continue with increasing the onshore movement
overnight but with the days insolation over-with, the instability
will not be there for additional convective activity to blossom
over land. One thing to note is that models have come better in
line with taking the sse-s moisture plume affecting the fa and
shunting it eastward from the ILM CWA during Monday. As a result,
the FA will not have that direct Tropical connection like the past
several days. However, the tropical air mass already across the
fa, and with local progged pws in the 1.75 to 2.00 inch range,
will only need the Monday morning insolation to start/crank up the
instability and in turn the diurnally driven convective engine.
Have tweaked tonights lows up by a degree or 3, with just about
the entire ILM CWA staying at or above the 70 degree mark tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Bonnie is forecast to
drift east-northeast across northeastern South Carolina, ending up
over the Cape Fear Region early on Tuesday. Thereafter Bonnie is
expected to drift to the northeast and out of the area. Latest
guidance starts out the short term with some dryer air at the mid-
levels, with the column again becoming saturated fairly quickly. In
any case there will be ample tropical moisture to work with as P/W
values will be in excess of 1.75 inches through the period.
Unsettled weather will continue through the short term with bouts of
heavy rain being the primary threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...The slow moving TD or remnant low from
Bonnie should be near Cape Lookout Wednesday morning continuing on
its slow northern track toward Hatteras through the day. Should
see some drier air wrap around the back end into the area but
still plenty of low level moisture to contend with. Therefore will
continue with some clouds through Wed with Pcpn being more
localized. A continued diminishing trend in moisture will occur
through mid week into Thurs with increasing sunshine and warming
temps reaching well into the 80s. The NW to W flow, or more off
shore flow on the back end of departing low will come against sea
breeze to produce some locally heavier rain or stronger
convection. GFS shows decent coverage Thurs aftn just inland of
the coast where best convergence and lift will be as winds begin
to come around to the SW. Winds will shift around to a deeper SW
flow of moisture as shortwave pushes a cold front toward the
Carolinas Fri into the weekend. Expect pcpn water values back up
near 2 inches late Fri into Saturday as moisture pools ahead of
cold front. This front may reach into the area and stall over the
weekend. Overall expect some clearing on the back end of the low
through mid week as moisture diminishes on back end of departing
low, but then increasing again as cold front moves in and possibly
stalls over the Carolinas over next weekend. For now, kept chc
pops in most days to account for some uncertainty. Temps will be
well up into the 80s most days with overnight lows remaining quite
high with such a moist air mass in place.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 00Z...Expect periods of low cigs, areas of fog, and periods of
rain to create periods of MVFR/IFR through the valid TAF period as
Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to affect the area. Otherwise
expect VFR.

Latest radar imagery depicts outerbands from Tropical Depression
Bonnie moving onshore bringing isolated to scattered showers across
the area. Expect periods of rainfall through the overnight hours
with low cigs and areas of fog, creating MVFR/IFR as this system
remains nearly stationary just southwest of the forecast area.
Southeast winds around 5 kts will continue. On Monday, expect these
conditions to continue with south-southeast winds increasing up to
around 12 kts.

Extended Outlook...Expect unsettled weather through Thursday with
possible SHRA/isolated TSRA and TEMPO MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
as of 1045 pm sunday...At the moment, tropical depression Bonnie
circulation was located across east central SC. It will basically
meander across northeast South Carolina overnight into daytime
Monday. The overall pressure gradient will continue to slowly
relax, especially with Bonnie meandering over land. Will be
looking at a general sse-ssw wind direction running at 10 to 20 kt
with a few 25 kt gusts possible. The synoptic fetch from the
circulation around the bermuda high will become more dominant as
the fetch associated with bonnie circulation continues to shrink.
Overall, will be looking at significant seas at 3 to 6 ft ILM SC
Waters...up to 4 to 7 ft for the ILM NC Waters. Dominating periods
will run 7 to 9 seconds.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Bonnie is forecast to
drift east- northeast across northeastern South Carolina, ending
up over the Cape Fear Region early on Tuesday. Thereafter Bonnie
is expected to drift to the northeast and out of the area. The
gradient associated with Bonnie will not be strong enough to bring
winds or seas up to advisory criteria so do not expect any flags
during the short term. Seas will generally hover in the 3 to 4 ft
range, with winds of 10 to 15 kts. The greatest threat during the
short term will be from heavy showers, which will be possible
through the period, and the odd thunderstorm.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...As TD or remnant low from Bonnie drifts
slowly up the NC coast on Wed, winds should be more off shore and
weakening allowing seas to relax even further. Overall expect a
W-NW on Wed to come around to the W-SW and eventually SW by later
on Thurs into Friday. The off shore flow will allow seas to drop
below 3 ft by late Wed into Thurs with a slow rising trend heading
into the weekend in minor southerly push in increased gradient
winds due to an approaching cold front. Winds will basically
remain S-SW less than 15 kts late Thurs into the weekend with seas
rising slightly Fri night but remaining in the 2 to 4 ft range.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT Monday for SCZ054-056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ110.
     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for NCZ106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for AMZ254-256.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for
     AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL



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