Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 031044
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. THE RETURN OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA REMAINS IN A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. CLOUD COVER VARIES...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WHERE
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...WHILE SKIES ARE MAINLY
CLEAR OVER WESTERN COUNTIES.

AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL
MEANDER SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MODELS INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN A
SURGE OF MOISTURE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND INCREASED INSTABILITY
CIRCULATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LIMITED
SOLAR ENERGY...AND WARM ADVECTION...RISING TO THE MID 70S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST ON
THURSDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A PATTERN OF WEAK FORCING IN A
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE SOME CONVERGENCE AND LIFT...WHILE INSTABILITY INCREASES IN
THE WARMING AIRMASS. WENT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL
LOCATIONS. CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW DUE TO WEAK
WIND PROFILES.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 80 ON THURSDAY...AND THE LOW TO MID
80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND WPC FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME ISSUES ON HOW STRONG A
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER SE CANADA/NEW ENGLAND AND HOW FAST IT
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN THAT
THE DYNAMICS ARE ON THE WEAK SIDE...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE IN A
LULL IN TERMS OF THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHEAST AND PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH BETTER DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...SOME EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION. LOW CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE TODAY. LOW CLOUDS
IN MVFR CATEGORY HAVE DRIFTED BACK ACRS ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING
IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THESE LOW CLOUDS HAVE KEPT VSBYS
FROM CRASHING AND GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

THESE LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THRU THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY
LIFT INTO VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURG THE LATE AFTN MAINLY EAST OF I-71 IN
RESPONSE TO A S/W ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE BEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO STAY SE OF THE TAF SITES...SO
HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE FCST. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. FOG WILL LKLY DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACRS THE SRN TAF SITES...KCVG/KLUK
AND KILN.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR





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