Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 031736
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1236 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area today. The high will move
off to the east on Sunday as an upper level disturbance quickly
moves to the Great Lakes. High pressure will then briefly build
back into the Ohio Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure will continue to build into the Ohio Valley
today. Despite this, a persistent and extensive stratocumulus
deck remains stuck under a subsidence inversion. Although some
erosion will be possible this afternoon into this evening,
thickening high clouds will arrive aloft from the southwest.
Therefore, peaks of the sun will be at a premium. Highs will range
from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models remain in good agreement in terms of the next s/wv to
affect the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon and
evening. Have leaned a little more on the GFS/ECMWF blend due to a
little more isentropic lift expected with this system.

For tonight, clouds will continue to thicken and lower well ahead
of the next s/wv to affect the region on Sunday.

On Sunday, weak isentropic lift will combine with some dynamic
lift as the s/wv moves into the Great Lakes. We will likely see
some virga first spread into the area due to a dry sub cloud base.
Then, as saturation occurs, there should be a brief period of
light rain from west to east Sunday afternoon into early Sunday
evening. Precipitation amounts will be a tenth of an inch or less.

By Sunday evening, light precipitation will quickly come to an
end. There may be a small chance of a wet snowflake mixing in across
the far north before the precipitation ends. Otherwise, clouds
will persist into much of the night.

On Monday, surface high pressure will briefly build back into the
Ohio Valley. Skies are expected to become partly cloudy.

Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the 40s with lows Sunday and
Monday in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A large system will move up from the lower Mississippi Valley late
Monday night. There continues to be some timing and placement
issues with this synoptic system. However, the region should see a
pretty decent chance of rain by Tuesday. With the warmer air
being drawn up into the region, we expect precipitation to
be in the form of rain through this event.

There will be lull in the precipitation on Wednesday before the next
system late Wednesday night into Thursday.  There is quite a bit of
model variation with this.  The GFS continues to be pretty dry while
the ECMWF brings more moisture into the region.  Went closer to the
wetter ECMWF solution.  The ECMWF has trended cooler therefore there
is the potential that some snow will also be possible on Thursday.

Models do agree that much colder air will then work down into the
region for the end of the long term.  With this pattern kept a
slight chance of precipitation chances in with the potential for
some lake effect snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few sites will have MVFR this afternoon with moisture trapped
under an inversion in weak high pressure. Models indicate
improvement to VFR tonight. For Sunday, a trough of low pressure
will bring showers to the vicinity of TAF sites, with prevailing
showers and MVFR ceilings expected at CVG starting at 18z. Winds
will be near calm today, with speeds increasing but staying under
10 knots out of the southeast on Sunday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Tuesday morning through
Wednesday morning, along with rain.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hickman/Novak
AVIATION...Coniglio


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