Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 251910
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
310 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
After an isolated evening shower, surface high pressure will
bring dry weather and cool temperatures tonight. An upper level
trough swinging through the Great Lakes will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into early Tuesday.
High pressure will provide dry weather at midweek with
increasing precipitation chances toward the end of the week as
temperatures warm to near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Highly amplified mid/upper level flow with ridge centered over
the west coast and a mean trof over the Great Lakes and eastern
US. Westerly flow across the Ohio Valley with an embedded s/w
evident on water vapor imagery tracking through southern lower
Michigan.

Weak associated surface front over northwest Ohio to slide east
across the area early tonight. An isold rain shower over the
south can not be ruled out this evening. This system has very
limited moisture so have only mentioned a slight chance of a
shower south. These isold showers and diurnally driven clouds
will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating early this
evening.

Under mostly clear skies, temperatures will cool into the lower and
mid 50s for lows tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Next mid level shortwave to drop southeast, sharpening up the mean
trof over the region Monday night. 25-30kt low level jet, along
with marginal instability may lead to a few rain showers or
isold thunderstorms into the west Monday afternoon. Will limit
pops to chance category. Temperatures look to be around 10
degrees below normal with highs Monday in the lower and middle
70s.

Expect this precipitation to drop southeast across ILN/s FA Monday
night ahead of a surface cold front. Thunder chances will
diminish as very weak instby decreases. Cool temperatures to
drop to lows in the lower and middle 50s Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Tuesday morning, large-scale troughing will remain in place over
the eastern half of the CONUS, with a relatively dry air mass in
place from the upper Ohio Valley through the mid-Atlantic. Attention
over the middle Ohio Valley will be focused on a shortwave trough,
moving ESE through the overall flow. The axis of this trough will
likely not quite be cleared through the ILN CWA by 12Z Tuesday, with
some chance of showers remaining in place near the Ohio River and
lower Scioto Valley through the morning. By afternoon, with
subsidence behind the shortwave, high pressure at the surface will
begin to take hold over the region. This will be too late to allow a
significant rise in temperatures, with below normal conditions
expected, especially in central Ohio.

Dry high pressure is expected to remain in control of the weather
from late Tuesday through early Thursday, influencing conditions
through the middle part of the week. With a turning of winds to the
south on Wednesday, a more appreciable warmup will begin, with
temperatures returning to the 80s.

As a more progressive pattern begins to set up for Thursday and
beyond, model differences become more pronounced, leading to lower
confidence -- especially in precipitation timing near the end of the
week and into the weekend. There is agreement that a frontal zone
will set up east-to-west across the southern Great Lakes beginning
early Thursday, with the ILN CWA in the warm sector within solid
deep-layer southwesterly flow. As convection develops at the north
end of this warm sector, and along the frontal area, there will
eventually be some propagation downstream which should impact the
ILN CWA -- likely beginning on Thursday afternoon, and then again as
additional waves of precipitation occur going into Friday. How much
of the CWA remains capped is a question, as is the exact position of
the front. However, model runs have trended a little southward with
precipitation chances, increasing the probability for storms in the
ILN CWA on Thursday and Friday (especially in the northern half of
the CWA). PoPs have been increased slightly through this time
period, but with little change to temperatures, as there is
confidence in continued southwesterly flow through the period. In
addition, with ample instability and at least somewhat favorable
deep-layer shear, some strong to severe storms could be possible on
Thursday and Friday.

Differences in the evolution of an upstream trough going into the
weekend will preclude more than very low confidence in the forecast
Saturday into Sunday.




&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail over the Ohio Valley through the
period. Scattered cu deck around 5kft will continue to develop
across the TAF sites this afternoon ahead of a weak cold front.
This cold front has very limited moisture so only expect this
increase in clouds.

Due to the diurnal nature of these clouds, expect these clouds
to diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Expect to see an increase in VFR clouds Monday ahead of next
mid level shortwave and associated front which may bring a few
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Monday night.

West winds at 10 to 15 kts will gust up to 25 kts this afternoon
and then diminish to less than 10 kts overnight.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio/Hatzos
AVIATION...AR



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