Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 270613
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
113 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME CHANGES INCLUDE LINGERING FLURRIES A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
SOUTH...WHEREAS NORTHERN AREAS SOME SKY COVER CHANGES AS SOME
SCATTERED TO EVEN CLEARING CONDITIONS IN THE NW FCST AREA.
AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY SCATTER...ALLOWING DRY/COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO BREAK. WITH THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND THE
NORTHERN FCST AREA BECOMING MSTLY CLEAR...NO REAL CHANGES IN THE
AREA WITH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN FCST AREA FOR TONIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES. COLD START FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE
TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HI
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SOUTHWEST. IF THE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THEN THIS WILL IMPACT
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AT
CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG (1934)...-3 AT DAY
(1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

ON THE BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TO SEE SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. WAA MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ACRS ILN/S FA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WILL MODERATE...EXPECT SATURDAY/S HIGHS TO STILL BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP
UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT PCPN TO START
OUT AS ALL SNOW SAT NIGHT. EXPECT EARLY LOWS FROM NEAR 10 NORTH TO
THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN WAA PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION SUNDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE SNOW AT THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION...CHANGING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON IN ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY CAUSE
PROBLEMS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE
TRANSPORTED TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ALONG A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY...
POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST.
THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...TAPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER
UP TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...MAY COMBINE WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT
TO PRODUCE FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL FLOODING COULD INCLUDE PONDING
IN URBAN AREAS AT FIRST...WITH RIVER FLOODING TO FOLLOW ONCE RUNOFF
REACHES CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO RISE CLOSER TO
NORMALS IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WITH STRATO CU
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE START
OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER DUE TO ISOLATED AND LIGHT NATURE OF THE
FLURRIES DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-
     058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK






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