Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KILN 250539
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1239 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS EVENING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTH LATER ON CHRISTMAS DAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR MAINLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW CRITERIA...SO HAVE CANCELED OUR WIND
ADVISORY. WINDS WILL STILL GUST AROUND 30 MPH FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
UNTIL DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT MOVING IN BEHIND THE POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS...WITH MORE SHOWERS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST UNDER
AN UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAVORABLE
PROFILE ALOFT FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING FOR
ALL BUT OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. THUS EXPECT JUST RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST...A CHANGE
TO SNOW IN OUR NORTHWEST...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN
BETWEEN. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. WILL START TO SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS BACKSIDE WILL DRAW
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO OUR AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT RELATIVE TO
00Z...AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES A
TROUGH IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS
PATTERN FLATTENS AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AND
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EJECTS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
ENERGY WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL CHANGE SOME OF THE RAIN TO SNOW ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST OF I-71. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS TRIED TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...SPREADING A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE
AREA. THE 00Z PARALLEL GFS KEPT THE AREA DRY. 12Z RUNS TRENDED
TOWARD THE PARALLEL GFS...AND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE MAINTAINS ONLY
LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-71.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY TUESDAY. THE 12Z
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND PARALLEL GFS FOCUS MORE ON
THE SOUTHERN STREAM FOR PRECIP PRODUCTION. THIS FORECAST WILL
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED
A BIT FOR THIS SAME TIME IN THE EVENT TROUGHING DOES BECOME MORE
PREVALENT ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL START BELOW 2000 FT BUT THEN LIFT ABOVE THAT
THRESHOLD BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR TOWARDS 00Z.
WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT AND THEN
DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KURZ
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/KURZ
SHORT TERM...KURZ
LONG TERM...SHOBE2
AVIATION...






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.