Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 192055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
255 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

More quiet and warm weather continues tonight and into tomorrow.
However, along with the warmer weather tomorrow, low level
moisture will stream up into the area tomorrow and bring overcast
skies by the afternoon. This should not reduce the warming since
waa from the southwest will be coming up with the moisture. Temps
tonight are expected to be right around freezing while temps
tomorrow afternoon should be similar to today, but a tad lower
because of the clouds. Even though some models are spitting out
some qpf, confidence is not high enough for me to put it in at
this time.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Low level moisture and will continue to stream into the CWA Sat
night ahead of the next weather system. With the pattern becoming
more amplified with a ridge across the eastern half of the US and
a trough across the west, the low pressure area associated with
the next weather system is expected to move northeast toward the
northern Great Lakes region and remain west and northwest of our
CWA. Areas of fog will develop Sat night and along with this,
drizzle will be possible since lots of low level moisture and waa
over the area. The drizzle will become showers as the system gets
closer to the area Sunday into Sunday night. Highest pops will be
Sunday night and Monday as the low tracks northeast across eastern
IA. Thunder might be possible Sun night with the main low and
along the cold front, but instability is relatively week and may
be confined south of the not adding in at this
time...will take a look again tomorrow. All models show a decent
dry slot coming in behind the cold front so expecting a break in
precip on Monday, but timing is tricky this far out, so will not
try to put this feature into the grids just yet. Then the wrap-
around precip of the system will move through the area Monday
night. Precip should go from rain to mix of rain/snow to all snow
before ending. Any snowfall in the are will be minimal.

Beyond this weekend system, dry weather is expected across the
CWA through the mid week as the flow becomes zonal/northwest for a
brief period. Then ridging is expected to return for the end of
next week into the following weekend.

Temps will remain warm through the weekend and into Monday. Then
expect temps to drop, but still remain above freezing during the
daytime hours. Warm temps expected at the end of next week and
into that weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

VFR conditions with high cirrus and good vis will continue into
the night. However, MVFR clouds are expected to advect into the
area tomorrow morning as southerly winds continue to bring low
level moisture up into the region ahead of the next weather
system. Have started the MVFR cigs around 12-14z at the sites, but
timing is uncertain as some models bring the lower clouds toward
noon. Use an earlier time based on soundings and Bufkit data.
South-southwest winds will continue this afternoon with gusts as
high as 20-23kts at all sites. Winds will diminish this evening
but low level wind shear will return at about 50kts at all sites.
Winds will then diminish in the morning once the low clouds advect
into the area.




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