Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 302030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY SLOW THE FRONT DOWN BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER ON SUNDAY. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE AND
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF 70. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND WILL BE REPLACED
WITH DRY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

FOLLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NAVIGATES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ALL EYES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT...SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AFTERNOON KIND-88D WAS LIT UP WITH STORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...INCLUDING CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ACTIVITY
WAS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND A WAVE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE JUST MENTIONED WAVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT AND TRACK CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. THE WAVE WILL HOLD UP THE FRONT BEFORE IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
OF THE OHIO RIVER ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT AND WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEAR 2 INCHES... AND EARLY EVENING
MIXED LAYER CAPES FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...A 35 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z MODELS AND WATER PREDICTION CENTER DAY1
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHIC ALL SUGGEST AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT
COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT. 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
IN THIS AREA IS MOSTLY 3 INCHES OR MORE. HOWEVER...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...FLOOD WATCH DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A BAD IDEA. AFTER COORDINATING WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-70 THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY.

WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND THE 35 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA...SLIGHT RISK OF MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES TO LOOK OK FOR THE EVENING HOURS.
INSTABILITY WANES ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO PULL THUNDER.

12Z MOS CLOSE ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AND APPEARS A BLEND WILL DO THE
TRICK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE INITIALLY ON SHOWER CHANCES
ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES...AS THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
WAVE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH...ON
SUNDAY.

WITH MODELS AGREEING THAT THE LOW WILL BE NEAR NEW CASTLE AT 12Z
SUNDAY AND THEN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO BY 18Z. SO...THIS WOULD SUGGEST
CAT POPS NORTHEAST TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AND DECREASING POPS AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE REST OF
THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH COLUMN REMAINING MOIST BELOW 700
MILLIBARS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...THINK
THE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN SOME BREAKS LOOK
LIKELY.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND REPRESENT CHANGING AIRMASS
AND CLOUD COVER NICELY. SO...A BLEND SHOULD DO.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER RIDGE RIDING
OVER THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW
WILL SET UP AND THIS WILL HAVE A BEARING ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CAN GET IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. FOR
NOW ACCEPTING INITIALIZATION WITH MINOR QUALITY CONTROL ADJUSTMENTS
SEEMED THE WAY TO GO...WHICH BRINGS IN LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 302100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED AS FOCUS WILL BE ON SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS WORDING INTO THE EVENING
AND RESTRUCTURE TEMPO TSRA AT ALL SITES THROUGH 01-02Z WITH RAIN
FOLLOWING THEREAFTER. SUB-IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT PASSES OVER A TERMINAL.

18Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE SITES OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH IFR OR LOWER AT TIMES IN THE STORMS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS...WITH LESSER
CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL STILL BE THUNDER LATER TONIGHT AND NOT
JUST RAIN. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE SITES OVERNIGHT ALSO
EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS DROP AND COULD HAVE SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES AS
WELL. LOW CEILINGS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KOCH
NEAR TERM...KOCH
SHORT TERM...KOCH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/RYAN

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