Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 301030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
630 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated below.


Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Warm...dry and less humid conditions are expected through Tuesday as
a surface high pressure ridge influences the weather across the
region. Storm chances will increase for Wednesday and Thursday as a
cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. The expansion of an upper
level trough into the Great Lakes will bring cooler weather for the
upcoming weekend.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Pleasant early morning across central Indiana as a surface ridge
steadily builds in from the west. Skies were partly cloudy as thin
high clouds continued to drift across the region. 07Z temps were
generally in the 60s with lower humidity levels as dewpoints had
fallen into the mid and upper 50s across much of the forecast area.

A beautiful Memorial Day setting up for the Hoosier state as the
surface ridge settles across the Ohio Valley. Expect plenty of
sunshine through the course of the day with light northwest flow
helping to maintain less humid conditions than that experienced the
last several days. Likely to have some diurnal cu for the afternoon
as convective temps will be in the mid 80s.

Temps...Low level thermals and a well mixed boundary layer support
trending temps near or just above MOS guidance for highs today.
Expect mid 80s across the region with a few locations rising
into the upper 80s.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Forecast challenges focus on precip chances Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front.

The surface ridge will remain the dominant influence on weather
across the area through Tuesday night as it lingers across the Ohio
Valley. A warm front will setup across the northern part of the
forecast area by Tuesday morning as low pressure tracks into the
upper Midwest. Despite the presence of the boundary in the forcing aloft...a mid level capping inversion and an
abundance of dry air will likely suppress any convection from
developing through Tuesday evening with only a small threat for a
shower or storm overnight Tuesday primarily confined to the northern
Wabash Valley.

A sharp upper low will track from the northern Plains early
Wednesday into the Great Lakes by Thursday morning. As heights
buckle with the approach of the upper low...a cold front will slowly
sag into the forecast area Wednesday night. The drier airmass will
slowly erode as moisture advects into the region...with scattered
convection developing across the forecast area Wednesday afternoon
then overspreading the area Wednesday night as the capping inversion

Temps...Warm weather will continue through the short term. Trended
highs towards the warm end of guidance both Tuesday and Wednesday
with mid to upper 80s common across the forecast area. The
combination of light flow and the drier airmass should maintain a
broader range to overnight lows tonight and Tuesday night ranging
from the upper 50s in the normal cool spots to the mid 60s in the
urban areas. Most areas will remain in the mid 60s Wednesday night
as scattered storms accompany the frontal boundary tracking through
the forecast area.


.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

The upper flow will become northwest across the area during the Long
Term, and this will allow a couple of cold fronts to move through.
The result will be chances for rain Thursday and across parts of the
area during the weekend.

There is some uncertainty on how much moisture the front during the
weekend will have, so confidence is low on the rain chances then.

Temperatures will be near average.


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 301200Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period.

High pressure will keep dry conditions with only scattered low level
clouds and scattered to broken high clouds.

Winds will remain less than 10kt.


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.



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