Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 240758
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
355 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016
.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be North of the region this period, resulting in
Drier air advecting South will keep much of inland
Southeast Georgia dry. Elsewhere, the moist onshore flow will bring
scattered coastal showers, which will spread inland during the
afternoon. With afternoon heating, a few thunderstorms will
develop. Convection will dissipate over land this evening.
This same pattern is expected again for Thursday as well, although
rain chances will be a little higher due to a weak wave moving West
through the flow.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal this period, with
coolest readings near the coast.
.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Fairly strong mid to upper level ridge of high pressure around
5950m over the Southeast states will slowly shift eastward through
this period. Low pressures over the tropics and mean sfc ridge over
the Carolinas to TN valley will produce fairly deep east to
northeast flow. Models indicate best rain chances will be across
eastern zones of northeast FL with much lower chances for SE GA.
Lows expected in lower to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the
coast. Highs Friday should be more in the upper 80s to near 90 along
coastal zones to about 92 to 94 inland.
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The main wx story for the extended period is the evolution of
potential tropic system (Invest 99L) that the NHC currently indicates
has a 70 percent chance of formation through day 5. This wx feature
is progged by a number model scenarios to move into the Bahamas over
the weekend. While there is some agreement in this first portion of
the forecast regarding this feature...what happens beyond Sunday and
Monday becomes more unclear. Currently...based on consensus
forecasts and NHC/WPC coordination...the forecast is for this
potential tropical cyclone to move west to northwest into the GOMEX.
But, as far as our local area for the weekend...breezy east to
northeast flow is anticipated with a decent potential of increased
moisture and rain chances. There are still marked differences in
model solutions in how much moisture there will be on Saturday and
Sunday. Due to these differences...a model blend is used for POPS
with the best chances over NE FL where better moisture may reside.
Monday through Tuesday...sufficient moisture and low level
convergence will continue the threat of scattered showers and storms
with breezy easterly winds. Temperatures will be within a
couple of degrees either side of climo values.
It is a good bet that strong rip currents and elevated surf will
continue due to a long fetch of easterly flow. Also there is
an increased potential for elevated water levels along the coast
next week due to both the onshore flow and also above normal
astronomical tides with the new moon on Sept 1st.
Onshore flow will be expected Today, bringing the chance for a few
showers, and an isolated thunderstorm. Prevailing VFR conditions
will be expected, but a brief period of MVFR conditions can not
be ruled out in and near showers, mainly along the coast.
High pressure will be North of area waters through Friday resulting
in a an extended period of onshore flow.
A tropical system could affect the region later this weekend into
early next week. There is still a great deal of uncertainty
regarding the timing, and track if this system fully develops,
leaving the forecast in question late in this period.
RIP CURRENTS: Moderate risk Today and Thursday due to onshore flow
pattern. An elevated risk for rip currents will continue right
through the weekend.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 90 70 91 71 / 10 0 10 0
SSI 89 76 89 76 / 10 20 20 10
JAX 89 72 89 74 / 20 20 30 10
SGJ 88 79 88 77 / 40 30 40 20
GNV 91 73 91 73 / 30 30 30 10
OCF 91 74 91 74 / 40 30 40 10