Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 011854
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
254 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015


...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 CORRIDOR UNTIL SUN MORNING...

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR KSSI TO
NEAR KLCQ THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
FAIRLY STATIONARY. AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUED FLOW FROM THE
GULF...A FLOODING CONCERN WILL REMAIN...MAINLY OVER COUNTIES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. SO...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH DIURNAL HEATING HELPING TO PROVIDE INSTABILITY.

WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY
NEAR THE GULF COAST OF N FL WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW JUST SOUTH OF
SURFACE TROUGH. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE OVER NE FL AND AT OR ABOVE OVER SE GA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH WILL STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH A SW FLOW
INCREASING OVER NE FL/SE GA. AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL
BE SCATTERED WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO NUMEROUS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE AUGUST LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS 18Z TAF PERIOD.
AS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THE DAY LIGHT HOURS.

&&


.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
MONDAY...WITH LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  90  74  95 /  30  30  30  30
SSI  76  85  75  85 /  20  50  40  40
JAX  74  87  75  89 /  20  60  50  50
SGJ  75  88  75  86 /  20  60  40  50
GNV  74  86  73  87 /  60  60  50  50
OCF  73  86  73  86 /  60  60  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/STRUBLE/COMBS



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