Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 300824
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
420 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...

THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG IS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE VISIBILITY MAY
BRIEFLY GET DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES
IN FEW SPOTS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR INCLUDING
GAINESVILLE. THE FOG WILL LIFT RAPIDLY BY MID MORNING.

TODAY/TONIGHT...A MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE TODAY. LIGHT WINDS ALONG
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED
STORMS AREA-WIDE BY AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND
AREAS AS THE ATLC/GOMEX SEA BREEZE FRONTS MOVE SLOWLY INLAND. MAX
TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND A SHADE UNDER 90
ALONG THE COAST. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO END DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MEAN LAYER RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH GA
AND SLOWLY RETROGRADING. LIGHT EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND HEATING FAVORS DIURNAL STORMS AGAIN
WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AND OUT TOWARDS THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE WHERE THE
MERGER OF SEA BREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS WILL OCCUR. MAX TEMPS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND A SHADE UNDER 90 AT
THE COAST. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO END DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

.LONG TERM (FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN PRIOR FORECASTS AS MODELS SHOW 1000-500 MB RIDGE
JUST N OF THE AREA MON AND TUE RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER E TO NE
FLOW HELPING TO PUSH E COAST SEA BREEZE INLAND EASILY EACH DAY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOUT 5915 METERS.
HIGHS AROUND MID 90S INLAND AND LOWER 90S TO NEAR 90 TOWARD THE
COAST. THIS FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL FAVOR
INLAND AREAS FOR PRECIP CHANCES AROUND 30-40% RANGE AND 20-30% ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS.

MEAN FLOW BEGINS TO BACK LATE TUE INTO WED AS MODELS SHOW
WELL-DEFINED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SLOWLY NW THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS. A SLIVER OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WELL TO THE NW OF THE
FEATURE MAY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OUR REGION ON
WED BUT FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL INDICATE CHANCE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...SHOULD AT LEAST BE 5-10% BELOW NORMAL.

THU AND FRI...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) MOVING NWD UP THE FL PENINSULA AND ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST REGION BY FRIDAY FROM SE TO NW. LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND ADDITION OF MOISTURE WILL HELP SHAVE OFF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM PRIOR DAY HIGH TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. WE SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR LOW CHANCES ON THU
TO AT LEAST A 30-40% AREA-WIDE ON FRI. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE E AND THEN SE ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG WITH OCNL IFR AT GNV TIL AROUND 13Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH  OF THE
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE TOWARDS GNV. HAVE
VCTS AT GNV BEGINNING AT 18Z ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS FOR POSSIBLE IFR
DUE TO TS POSSIBLE AT GNV BETWEEN 18Z-24Z. HAVE VCTS AT REST OF NE
FL TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z-24Z. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING THE EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND HAVE VCSH AT ALL NE
FL TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. FOR SSI HAVE PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 10
KNOTS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE EVENING BUT BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING ESE SWELL AND AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW WILL
WARRANT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  72  94  72 /  40  30  40  30
SSI  88  77  89  77 /  20  20  30  20
JAX  92  74  92  74 /  40  30  30  20
SGJ  89  75  89  75 /  30  30  30  20
GNV  92  72  92  72 /  50  50  50  40
OCF  92  73  93  73 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS




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