Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 301857
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLD T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD
OVER WRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DESPITE RADAR STILL
SHOWING ACTIVITY FURTHER OFFSHORE. WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MOVING
WELL INLAND...THINK COASTAL WATERS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN 20 POP OVER IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT FOR A FEW SHOWERS THAT COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND. LOW
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 67-69 INTERIOR...NEAR 70 EASTERN
COUNTIES...LOW 70S COAST.

FOLLOWING THE SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLD T-STORMS OVER EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA MIDDAY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OVER WRN HALF OF AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY 88-90 INTERIOR...85-87 EASTERN
COUNTIES...83-85 COAST.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
RESIDUAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY FAR INLAND SUNDAY EVENING WILL
DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
DECREASE...RESULTING IN SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THE MAIN
MECHANISM FOR AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. WILL USE CLOSE TO
CLIMO POPS...WITH MID/HIGH END CHANCE FOR INLAND SECTIONS AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S COAST TO THE LOWER 90S FAR INLAND. NEAR
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY NUDGING EAST LATE WEEK WITH
THE TROUGH PROGGED TO BE ACROSS GA/NORTHERN FL BY SATURDAY.
MODELS STILL VARIANT ON HOW TO HANDLE POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING SOUTH FL LATE WEEK...WITH THE GFS REMAINING STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES...WILL NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...KEEPING THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AS
THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER. WILL KEEP MID/HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST AREAS IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH LESSER CHANCES AT NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER
WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
IMPACTING KGNV. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT LOWER
CONDITIONS VICINITY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF LOWER CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY

&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
3-5 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEFORE BACKING TO THE NE THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  89  68  90 /  10  40  20  50
SSI  73  83  73  82 /  20  20  10  30
JAX  69  86  69  88 /  10  30  10  40
SGJ  72  83  72  82 /  20  20   0  30
GNV  67  90  68  90 /  10  50  40  50
OCF  68  90  69  90 /  10  50  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WOLF



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