Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 240031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
831 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.UPDATE...Showers have ceased across the entire region earlier
this evening. A few hours after midnight chance of nocturnal
showers and isolated tstorms will continue along and west of the
I-75 corridor due to a continuation of moist WSW steering flow
from the Gulf of Mexico and coastal convergence. Showers and
thunderstorms will initially redevelop over the northeast Gulf
waters and pushing into the Suwannee Valley / I-75 corridor as
mainly isolated to scattered showers during pre-dawn hours
Monday, then overspread the rest of NE Florida as the morning
progresses. This may stabilize the atmosphere for areas south of
I-10 with mainly isolated embedded thunder with scattered showers
in the early morning through the early to mid afternoon. There
will be a an impulse approaching SE GA in the afternoon where a
second round of precipitation with convection likely mainly north
of I-10 into SE GA where the best instability will reside during
the afternoon. An increased WSW steering flow around 15-20 kts
once again will pin the east coast sea breeze and keep it at bay
for most coastal locations. A few strong storms capable of gusty
wet downbursts will be possible mainly along and north of I-10
during Monday afternoon/evening as the shortwave approaches and
then moves through the SE GA.


.AVIATION...VFR tonight. Low chance of hybrid scenario of stratus
and patchy fog impacting GNV during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow
morning after 09Z per HRRR/SREF guidance, but did not include in
forecast yet. Light SSW flow will continue with another round of
storms moving inland from the Gulf Coast region Monday morning.
These showers (with some isold but embedded thunderstorms) may
move into Gainesville between 09 to 12z, then overspread the
coastal northeast Florida terminals with potential intermittent
high end MVFR restrictions with TEMPO cloud deck at 3000 feet.
Across SE GA there will be higher potential for convection during
the afternoon and early evening hours, with brief flight
restriction are possible for KSSI with SHRA/TSRA with some
potential of gusty winds.


.MARINE...Surface high pressure will extend across the southern
Florida peninsula through Monday. South to southwest winds will
range between 15-20 kts tonight between the ridge to the south of
the waters and an approaching trough axis which will edge south
toward the TN River Valley. Small Craft Exercise Caution will
continue for the outer waters with winds of 10-15 kts over near
shore expected and thus no headline. The surface trough will
position across north-central Georgia Monday and linger through
Tuesday. An area of low pressure is expected to form along this
frontal zone as it drifts south across Georgia Wednesday and
Thursday. Offshore flow will prevail with an increase in
precipitation coverage midweek.

Rip Currents: Low risk anticipated for Monday.


AMG  75  92  74  92 /  20  60  30  60
SSI  77  90  77  90 /  30  50  20  60
JAX  74  91  75  92 /  20  50  10  60
SGJ  74  89  75  90 /  20  40  20  50
GNV  73  88  73  92 /  30  50  10  50
OCF  73  88  73  92 /  30  50  20  30




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