952
FXUS62 KJAX 120641
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
241 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Weak high pressure ridge remains in place with a continued dry
West-Northwest steering flow in the low levels while high clouds
increase in Westerly flow aloft and skies become partly to mostly
cloudy by the afternoon hours. Light and variable surface winds
are expected with East Coast sea breeze development pushing into
the US 301 corridor by the late afternoon/evening hours with winds
at 10-15 mph along the Atlantic Coast. The increasing cloud cover
puts lower confidence in Max temp forecast with highs generally
well into the mid/upper 80s, but could be held closer to the 80-85
range if cloud cover ends up thicker than expected. Tonight the
weak high pressure ridge lifts north of the region and warm
frontal boundary begins to return slowly northward through the
Eastern Gulf/Central FL Peninsula as the steering flow becomes
southerly and moisture levels increase with more mid/high clouds
expected. Milder overnight lows expected in the 60s inland and
near 70 along the Atlantic Coast. A few of the model solutions
show a few light showers/sprinkles possible in the increasing
cloud cover this afternoon and tonight, but with drier airmass
still intact below the mid/high clouds, not expecting any
measurable rainfall, so any PoP chances will remain in the
"silent" 10% range through tonight for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Monday and Monday Night: A warm front lifts across the area on
Monday morning ahead of upper trough and complex low pressure
system taking shape over the southeast US. The warm and moist
south to southeasterly flow, combined with shortwave energy ahead
of the main trough with the frontal boundary nearby, sets the
stage for chances for showers and possibly some t`storms Monday.
Will likely have a combination of some sea breeze convection over
northeast FL, with the potential for more widespread activity over
interior southeast GA. Instability looks to be marginal at best
Monday, therefore not expecting much in the way of strong to
severe t`storm activity. A fair amount of cloud cover should limit
high temps Monday - especially north of about I-10. Expecting
generally low to mid 80s north this "line", and mid to upper 80s
and possibly some low 90s furthest south and west. Daytime
convection further south weans into Monday Night, though chances
for showers and a few thunderstorms is expected to continue
throughout the night with the presence of the aforementioned
boundary and synoptic scale features - especially further north.
Mild lows in the upper 60s to low 70s will coincide for Monday
Night.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night: A secondary warm front with lift across
the area on Tuesday Morning, coinciding with low pressure over the
south/central US trekking eastward and approaching the Eastern
Seaboard during the day on Tuesday and into Tuesday Night. The
associated trailing cold front approaches from the west during the
day Tuesday and into Tuesday Night, which combined with dynamics
of the main upper trough pushing eastward, sets the stage for
shower and t`storms during this period. There will be much more of
a presence of instability on Tuesday, which combined with the more
favorable kinematics will bring the threat for strong to
potentially severe convection. Details are to be ironed out,
though this potential looks like it could continue into Tuesday
Night as well due to the slowing progress of the front. This type
of setup will also bring heavy rain potential, with continuous
training of precip possible for some areas. Temps Tuesday will be
tricky depending on the timing and progress of the front and
precip. However, generally low to mid 80s over southeast GA and
upper 80s to low 90s ahead of the front south and east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

The aforementioned boundary looks to continue to slowly move
southward across the region on Wednesday. Highest precip chances
Wednesday look to be south of I-10 as some drier air starts to
fill in from the north and west. The front looks to settle just
south of the region Wednesday Night and Thursday, with some short
lived subsidence and therefore more fair weather during this same
period as the upper trough moves off the Eastern US and ridging
briefly builds in aloft. The next frontal system takes shape and
approaches our region around Friday, possibly affecting many
locations into the start of next weekend. Guidance diverges rather
significantly during this period however, and therefore confidence
is low in the forecast beyond about the Thursday time frame.
Temperatures overall trend slightly above average for the majority
of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Clear skies and cooling boundary layer has already kicked off the
usual MVFR fog at VQQ this morning, with some possible MVFR fog
around sunrise (09-11Z) at GNV/JAX/CRG along with possible TEMPO
LIFR vsbys at VQQ through sunrise as well. Otherwise VFR conds
with increasing high clouds (SCT150 BKN250) the rest of the TAF
period with a weak East Coast sea breeze impacting the coastal TAF
sites during the afternoon time frame.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Weak High pressure will remain in control today with light and
variable winds less than 10 knots this morning, with East Coast
sea breeze development this afternoon. Southeast winds increase on
Monday as warm front lifts north into the local waters likely
reaching Small Craft Advisory levels late in the day and
continuing into Monday night. As the warm front lifts just north
of the waters, winds become southerly on Tuesday and then
southwesterly on Wednesday with at least SCEC headlines and
possible SCA level winds continuing, but the main threats during
this period will be several rounds of showers and strong to severe
storms with heavy rainfall and gusty winds at times. Trailing weak
frontal passage Wednesday Night into Thursday should lead to a
lighter offshore flow below headline levels and a return to more
normal afternoon sea breeze regime.

Rip Currents: Marginal Moderate rip current risk continues today
as East Coast sea breeze develops this afternoon with
surf/breakers in the 1-2 ft range. More solid Moderate to Marginal
High risk develops on Sunday as Southeast winds increase to 15 to
20 mph by the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  63  84  67 /  10  10  60  70
SSI  81  68  82  71 /  10  10  40  70
JAX  86  66  86  70 /  10  10  50  50
SGJ  83  69  85  72 /  10  10  40  40
GNV  87  66  88  68 /  10  10  60  40
OCF  88  67  91  70 /  10  10  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$