Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 301414
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1014 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

...HUMID THIS MORNING WITH LOWER 90S INLAND TODAY WITH ISOLATED
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...

.UPDATE...MEAN LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF THE GA/SC
COAST THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. 12Z RAOBS INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND ABOUT 25% ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH INLAND TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
90S...WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN COOLER UNDER SSE FLOW WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TOWARD THE INTRACOASTAL. ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE
WILL DOMINATE OUR COASTAL AREAS AND SUPPRESS CONVECTION...CONTINUED
TO INDICATE A LOW 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
THIS AFTN FIRST INITIATING ACROSS OUR FL ZONES WHERE CONVECTIVE OF
87 WILL BE REALIZED BY MIDDAY...THEN EXPANDING COVERAGE TOWARD THE
WNW ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR INTO THE AFTN. AS THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE DRIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EVENING...STEERING
FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE SSW...ALTHOUGH REMAINING LIGHT. THUS RESULTANT
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES COULD BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD
THE EAST...BUT STORM MOTION OF LESS THAN 10 KTS ACROSS NE FL FAVORS
MAINLY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES OF UP TO 20%
EDGE TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP FADES BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS
WILL BE NEAR GNV AND VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. SSE WINDS 10-15 KTS SEAS 2 FT

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  66  88  68 /  30  30  30  30
SSI  82  71  81  70 /  10  10  20  30
JAX  90  68  87  69 /  10  20  20  20
SGJ  84  70  83  69 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  90  67  88  67 /  30  30  20  20
OCF  91  67  88  67 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET/WALKER


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