Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 011916
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
316 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

18z sfc analysis shows low pressure still holding over the Ohio
Valley beneath a gradually exiting upper low. These features have
been responsible for the plenty of clouds through the area once
again this afternoon along with sprinkles and a couple of
showers, though these were mainly confined to the northern and
western portions of the JKL CWA. Temperatures have made it into
the mid to upper 60s through the area while dewpoints are
generally in the low to mid 50s with light/variable winds.

The models are in good agreement aloft through the bulk of the
short term portion of the forecast. They all slowly take the deep
closed low north from the Ohio Valley and into the eastern Great
Lakes on Sunday. At this point, the model spread increases a bit as
the CMC scoots the low east faster than the consensus and has been
discounted - though the latest ECMWF seems to be a tad more
progressive than the rest, too. The departure of this closed low
will take its mid level energy with it, but not before Sunday
evening for most of the area allowing limited support for pcpn
around through the rest of the weekend. Given the model agreement
will favor a general blend with a lean toward the HRRR and NAM12
in the near term and some persistence mixed in.

Sensible weather will feature another cool and cloudy night with
sprinkles and a few showers around, similar to last night. Also,
like last night - anticipate fog for the valleys with locally
dense patches forming toward dawn. More clouds will be around on
Sunday with another potential for showers during the afternoon,
though most places will stay dry. Temperatures should be a notch
higher, as well. Look for another cool night into Monday morning
with a bit less in the way of clouds and as a result better
radiational conditions likely leading to more fog.

Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as a starting point again for
most grids into Sunday morning with the SuperBlend used
thereafter. Made just some minor changes to the T grids based on
terrain with the clouds around tonight and slightly more changes
Sunday night. As for PoPs - ended up on the low side of a MOS
blend - closest to the MAV - through Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

The extended portion of the forecast will be mostly dry, with very
pleasant temperatures through out. A ridge of high pressure will
influence the weather of eastern Kentucky through Thursday, with
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and light winds expected across
our area. High temperatures each day through Thursday are forecast
to top out in the mid to upper 70s. A few locations may reach or
slightly exceed 80 degrees Tuesday through Thursday along and south
of the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway 80 corridor. A cold front is
expected to move through the area Thursday night, bringing a few
rain showers to eastern Kentucky. Any lingering rain showers should
be exiting the area by late Friday morning. A much cooler air mass
is then expected to settle over the region to finish out the week.
Highs on Friday should be close to normal, with max values in the
low to mid 70s on tap. Nightly lows should bottom out in the 50s,
with readings in the mid to upper 40s possible for Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

The upper level low continues to meander across the Ohio Valley.
This will lead to bands of clouds through the period and the
threat of isolated showers/sprinkles, although the more
substantive of these should remain west and north of all TAF
sites. VFR to high MVFR conditions will be the rule through the
afternoon with southwest winds of to 5-10 knots. Winds will
diminish this evening as low stratus potentially develops near the
Bluegrass region and down towards Lake Cumberland. With the main
concentration of this and any visibility reductions again likely
centered north and west of all TAF sites so left mention out for
now, but did allow for some MVFR vis for a time at SME/LOZ and
SYM. VFR conditions should return by mid morning on Sunday with
light and variable winds.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF


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