Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 281331 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
931 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A CONTINUOUS STRATUS LAYER HAS ENSHROUDED NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING A MILE OR ABOVE NOW. HAVE
BEEFED UP THE SKY COVER ACROSS THIS AREA AND ALSO ACCORDINGLY
TEMPERED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE. THIS DECK WILL GRADUALLY BURN
OFF THROUGH AROUND 11 AM. HAVE ALSO RESERVED THE ISOLATED POPS UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SO FAR FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
DEVELOPED AFTER SOME PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED JUST
EAST OF OUR BORDER. OTHERWISE...FOG DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS/ HAS LED TO VV CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. FOG IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF THROUGH 10AM. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE
ONGOING NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE ONGOING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY
CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAKER
DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER TX OR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE PROGGED TO
WORK AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY
REGION FROM SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY THEN
EVOLVE TO A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS TROUGH TO FINALLY SWING EAST
TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK
OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING NORTH AND SHOULD EXIT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WORKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE WARM FRONT DEPARTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY
STRETCHING OUT WEST TO EAST BY THE INCREASINGLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE THE LEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SAT EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND PEAK SUNDAY AS
THE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WORK OVERHEAD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...IF
NOT ABOVE TWO INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES INTO
MONDAY. PWATS MAY LOWER SOME IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT GUIDANCE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARER TO TWO INCHES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER IN ADVANCE OF
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
FROM SAT EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AT TAF SITES ONCE MORE
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KY LAST NIGHT...WILL BECOME
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN AND
VA BORDERS. ALTHOUGH IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT
MENTION OF VCTS IN KLOZ AND KSME TAF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN /ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS/ ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE/JP
AVIATION...JMW






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