Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 040858
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
458 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A QUIET START TO OUR WEDNESDAY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 50...UNDER A DECK OF MID CLOUDS IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A FEW EARLIER SHOWERS NORTH OF I-64...HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
FADING AWAY AS THEY DROP EAST AND SOUTH. IN FACT...NOT MUCH LEFT
OF THESE SHOWERS PRESENTLY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES
IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SHOULD WORK OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW A
BRIEF DROP INTO THE 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF. LOOKING TO OUR
NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/MICHIGAN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
AND DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. EVEN HAD SOME MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHARP WAVE
TROUGH...PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING AND LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LATEST HI RES ARW/NMM/HRRR ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY
AFTER NOON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT OUTRUNS THE MAIN FORCING. HOWEVER...NOT TO
BE DISCOUNTED...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO REFIRE SOME
NEW SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SBCAPE CLIMBING TO
500-1000J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5.5KFT...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT
TO GET THUNDER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL...HAIL SIZE WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER 1 INCH
DIAMETER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE OVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AREAWIDE.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING AND WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWEST FAVORING UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A NICE UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. IN
FACT...MODELS EVEN SHOWING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THUS...WILL
INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RLX`S CURRENT FORECAST. AGAIN...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL
PROMOTE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH INTO THE 50S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...WILL STAY COLDER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AS THE PERIOD
STARTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE STILL SHOWN OVER OUR AREA...WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. WITH THE LOW
MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ENOUGH DRYING IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO END. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST THEN BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO KY SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE SATURDAY AS IT
APPROACHES. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...BEFORE TRYING TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS MAKES THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP
PERSISTENT. WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED ALSO WARRANTS A MENTION OF
THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS



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