Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 240847

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
447 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Mostly cloudy skies have prevailed through the overnight hours over the
Florida Keys and its surrounding waters. A few thunderstorms affected
the Keys near the Seven Mile Bridge past midnight, but these dissipated.
After 2 am, storms that developed over southwest Florida earlier in
the evening made their way south into the extreme southeast Gulf waters
and more storms started to develop affecting some of the island communities
of the Florida Keys, mainly along the Middle and Upper Keys. Temperatures
were able to drop to the low 80s and winds were light and variable.

A surface high pressure was over the central Atlantic this morning with
its ridge extending westward across the Florida Peninsula. This high is
expected to slowly move westward and by Tuesday night be northeast of the
Bahamas. Then it will shift eastward again. Meanwhile, an upper level low
pressure over southeast Florida this morning is expected to move southwest
and weaken over the extreme southeast Gulf waters. This in combination
with unstable conditions and PWAT values around 2 inches over the local
area today, the Keys can expect a medium chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and overnight hours.

On Monday, a mid to upper levels high pressure will established itself
across the southeast U.S. and Florida lasting through at least the end
of the work week. On the surface, ridging will be the main driver over
the local area. Models continue to show a decrease in moisture starting
Monday night through Tuesday (with PWAT values decreasing to an inch
and a half), moistening again by Tuesday night. Temperatures will continue
to raise to the upper 80s and near 90 this week, possibly cooling a few
degrees with the assistance of any shower activity nearby.


Light to gentle east to southeast breezes will continue today and tonight
across the Florida Keys coastal waters. On Monday, winds will pick up some
speed, ranging 10 to 15 knots through most of the work week.


Today...VFR conditions will prevail at both the KEYW & KMTH Int`l terminals
through at least 18Z. Thereafter, a better chance of showers and thunderstorms
impacting either/both terminals is indicated, as residual boundaries near
the islands combine with boundaries originating from mainland seabreeze
convection. These "collisions" will result in short periods of MVFR/IFR
CIG and/or surface VIS, along with convective wind downbursts near 25 knots.
Amendments will be issued as warranted but for now a VCTS will be inserted
in the TAFs.


Key West  88  79  89  81 / 50 50 30 20
Marathon  91  79  92  81 / 50 50 30 20


.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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