


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
789 FXUS62 KKEY 150254 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1054 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1054 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A weather disturbance located just offshore east of Cape Canaveral has been producing widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms. This afternoon and evening, several rounds of convection associated with this feature pivoted through the Keys. The big winners in terms of rainfall accumulation were in the Lower Keys, where 1-2" of rain fell in a short amount of time. This mostly occurred east of Key West, which only saw just over a tenth of an inch. The Middle Keys between Grassy Key and Long Key also picked up nearly 2 inches of rain but over a longer period. This activity shifted into the distant Straits of Florida and has all but subsided. Another round may be restarting off the southwest mainland as outflow boundaries from earlier convection spills out into the Gulf. Hi-res models continue to show this not only surviving but pivoting into our waters late overnight. There is a lesser chance elsewhere, including the island chain. Therefore, have lowered slightly PoPs to 50 percent for the island chain. We remain moist, albeit worked over, but we have quite a bit of time for the overnight to recover, plus any lingering boundaries out there that cannot be readily seen via radar. && .MARINE... Issued at 1054 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Weak low pressure tries to develop in the vicinity of Florida heading through the first half of the week. Initially, the Keys will be on the southern fringe in a col region resulting in mainly variable breezes through tonight. As the weak low pressure area shifts to the west and high pressure builds in behind, breezes will freshen becoming southeast to south at first, before becoming east to southeast for mid to late week. Also, expect increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the middle part of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 VFR conditions have returned to the island terminals and is expected to continue through the overnight. We are expecting showers and thunderstorms to return towards or just after sunrise across both terminals. Any passing shower or thunderstorm will be capable of brief gusty winds, MVFR CIG, and IFR VIS and will be handled with future amendments as needed. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest