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016
FXUS62 KKEY 211853
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
253 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under mostly sunny skies and east winds of 10 to 15 mph,
temperatures are in the lower 90s on most Keys communities.
Meanwhile, local radars are only detecting a few light showers on
the outer Straits of Florida well southeast of the Upper Keys.
Surface wise, a north-south oriented and weak tropical wave
extends from north of the Bahamas, southward to the archipelago of
Cuba. On our marine district, east winds are near 15 knots along
the reef tract but slightly higher southward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
An elongated, decelerating weak tropical wave over the Bahamas
will migrate westward into the south Florida and the adjacent
Atlantic and Gulf waters Tuesday and Tuesday night, before
stalling nearby through Thursday. Because of this, moisture will
be on the increase but the main low level forcing will likely
remain north of our region. However, a light wind flow, ample
moisture and little if any convective inhibition should allow
mesoscale triggering in the form of wet cloud line genesis and
outflow boundaries emanating off the surrounding large land
masses. Hence, middle of the road chance pops will be inserted
with high temperatures averaging in the lower 90s and overnight
lows varying from the upper 70s to mid 80s due to potential
downpours.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
With considerable uncertainty and climo 12 hour pops at 35
percent, will retain a blend of the ECE/MEX 12 hour pops of 40
percent through the period. See no reason to stray from highs in
the lower 90s and lows in the lower 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline will be maintained
for the Straits of Florida until winds and seas subside.
Elsewhere, Mostly east winds of near 15 knots will abate to around
10 knots by morning, with light to gentle winds mostly southeast
winds will prevail for at least a couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Until 12z/22nd, the best chance for a MVFR encounter or two will
be late tonight and Tuesday morning, otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail at the Key West and Marathon terminals. Away from any
showers or thunderstorms, mostly east winds of 10 to 15 knots
will slacken to near 10 knots or less.

&&

.CLIMATE...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  92  83  91 / 40 40 40 40
Marathon  83  94  82  94 / 40 40 40 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....APA
Data Collection......DR

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