Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 311946
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
246 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST BREEZES HAVE FRESHENED AS EXPECTED WITH WINDS CONSISTENTLY
GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH ON LAND...AND OVER 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. AIR TEMPERATURE HAVE RISEN A SOLID 8-10 DEGREES SINCE
DAYBREAK IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES...WITH CURRENT READINGS IN
THE MID 70S. A TRAJECTORY OF DRY...CONTINENTAL AIR PERSISTS INTO THE
REGION...AND CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 60F...FOR
NOW. A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS HAS TRANSITED
THE GULF STREAM/STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALL DAY...AND NOW IS MOVING WELL
SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS IN THE
PROCESS OF BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD BENEATH AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT.

FORECASTS -- NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FOR THIS CYCLE. THE
FAST...PROGRESSIVE...AND UNDULATING UPPER FLOW PATTERN THAT HAS
PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE WINTER WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THIS WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE LOTS OF WIND SHIFTS AND AT LEAST TWO WEAK COLD
FRONTS...THE SECOND ONCE PERHAPS BEING STRONGER THAN THE FIRST. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH A SPIKE TO 30
PERCENT FOR EACH OF THE 12-HOUR PERIODS BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CURRENT WIND SURGE WILL PERSIST ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE
SLACKENING SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...BREEZES WILL FRESHEN ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS EVENING...AND FROM EAST
TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BOX FURTHER FROM SOUTH TO WEST ON
MONDAY...AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. THEREAFTER...AN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
GOVERN...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...INCREASING UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THIS EVENING...BLOWING FROM THE
EAST TONIGHT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1966...THE DAILY
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 47F WAS RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  65  76  70  78 / 10 20 10 -
MARATHON  65  76  70  78 / 10 20 10 -
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-GMZ034-
     GMZ035-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-
     GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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