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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231953
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
353 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
EARLIER TODAY...AND MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA BAY
AND THE EXTREME UPPER KEYS NEAR OCEAN REEF. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED...AND IT APPEARS THAT A
LARGE POCKET OF DEEP DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. CURRENTLY...AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S IN MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES...WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70-75F RANGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS
RANGE FROM WEST TO NORTH NEAR 10 MPH OR LESS AT MOST PLATFORMS.

AN AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FLORIDA KEYS NEARLY IN A COL
REGION IN THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ANOTHER SMALLER HIGH
PRESSURE CELL CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
INTENSIFICATION...EXPANSION...AND EASTWARD EVOLUTION OF A CONTINENTAL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WHICH WILL BUILD BENEATH AND EVOLVE WITH A
LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. INITIALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BREEZES DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WILL TURN
NORTHEAST AND FRESHEN ON SATURDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. MOSTLY RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
TEMPORARILY INCREASED RAIN CHANCE SATURDAY-SATURDAY EVENING AS AN
INITIAL WIND/MOISTURE SURGE MOVES THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FURTHER NEXT WEEK AS THE MOIST LAYER GRADUALLY DEEPENS.
&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER
24-36 HOURS BEFORE A NORTHEAST WIND SURGE ENSUES ON SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTING
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 24/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EYW AND
MTH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A RAIN-FREE FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  87  78  87 / -  -  10 20
MARATHON  78  90  78  90 / -  -  10 20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......BWC

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