Area Forecast Discussion
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067
FXUS62 KKEY 140157
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
857 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES OVER THE KEYS AREA WITH THE ONLY RADAR
ECHOS FROM CHAFF. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING IN OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND STRETCHES FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NORTH NEAR 10 KNOTS AT
THE ISLAND TERMINALS...15 TO 20 KNOTS AT MARINE STATIONS NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN...AND NEAR 20 AT SAND KEY LIGHT. NO VERIFICATION FROM
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AS IT IS EITHER TOO EARLY FOR THE PASS...OR IT
MISSED THE AREA. WINDS ALOFT FROM THE EVENING SOUNDING WOULD SUGGEST
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY)...
NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST. A BIT OF REINFORCING COOL AND
DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN OVER THE KEYS TONIGHT. WITH THE ADDED DRY AIR
EXPECT THERE IS VERY LITTLE REASON FOR MENTIONING POPS. THE COOLER
AIR WILL NEARLY MATCH THE WATER TEMPERATURES IN FLORIDA BAY AND
EXPECT WINDS TO BE SLIGHTLY RESTRAINED THERE. BREEZES WILL VEER
NORTHEAST...THEN EAST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE WINDS A BIT MORE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE GRADIENT AND REINFORCING COOL AIR MOVING OVER
THE WARMER WATERS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
STRAITS. WILL KEEP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS EXCEPT
FLORIDA BAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON FLORIDA BAY WITH
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO
ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1947...2.84 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON FEBRUARY 13TH...A RECORD WHICH
STILL STANDS 69 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ032>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS
DATA COLLECTION...............VICKERY

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