Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 290823

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
423 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Currently - High pressure is emerging off the Mid Atlantic coast
this morning, while a surface ridge situated off to our east
northeast. Closer to home, a weakening surface trough is present
across South Florida and the northern Bahamas. As a result, light
east to southeast breezes prevail. Meanwhile, broad mid and upper
level ridging is in place across Florida and the adjacent bodies
of waters. Shower and thunderstorm activity has been isolated this
morning and all activity has died out over the past hour or two.

Forecast - High pressure spreading into the Atlantic today will
gradually consolidate into a broad Atlantic high with a ridge axis
extending into the southeastern United States. As a result, east
to southeast winds will pick up moderately over the next 24
hours. Meanwhile, much drier mid level air will ride in on the
southern flank of the mid level ridge. Forecast soundings suggest
lower level flow will favor development of island cloud lines with
little in the way of inhibition and near normal deep layered
moisture. Will maintain low chance pops today. Rain chances will
ease back through this period, bottoming out in the 10 to 20
percent range on Saturday. Expect seasonable highs and lows a few
degrees above normal due to the increased flow.

The surface ridge axis will settle southwards across the Florida
peninsula early next week, allowing winds to ease back a bit,
becoming light to gentle out of the east to southeast. Expect the
usual moderate late afternoon and evening wind surges. Pops will
remain in the 20 to 30 percent ridge with generally near normal
temps and moisture.


A high pressure system spreading eastwards off the Mid Atlantic
coast will result in gradually increasing winds over the next 24
hours. Cautions may be required every evening for the Florida
Straits due to the usual moderate to fresh wind surge in the late
afternoon and evening on an easterly flow. Thereafter, winds will
nudge back a bit as the surface ridge becomes aligned across the
Florida Peninsula.


VFR and light east to southeast breezes will prevail at the EYW and
MTH terminals through the morning. Vertical wind profiles are
favorable for cloud line convection this afternoon. However, dry air
(sampled by last evening`s RAOB) throughout the column will need to
moisten significantly before we have confidence in including any
precipitation in the TAF.


Key West  89  82  89  83 / 30 30 30 20
Marathon  92  82  92  83 / 30 30 30 20





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