Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 050739
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
339 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED OVER NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
KEYS SERVICE AREA IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE MAINTAINING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS. NO SURPRISE THERE.

RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT AND INTO THE MID LAYERS OF THE
TROPOSPHERE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
PERIODS. THE PROFILE WILL BE RELATIVELY DEEP FROM THE EAST...AND
VEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE LAYERS. A MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REPLACE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEYOND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT A WEAK TROUGH SHOULD SLIDE NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA. HAVE EXTENDED OUR MINIMAL RAIN MENTION OF 10 PERCENT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ON ACCOUNT OF A STRAY SHOWER/STORM OR TWO. A
20 PERCENT POP FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD MAY END UP BEING A BIT GENEROUS
AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LAYERS MAY ACCOMPANY REINFORCING
DRY AIR UP TO THOSE LAYERS. REGARDLESS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE
LATEST GFS TABULAR NUMBERS WHICH ARE CLOSER TO OUR ALREADY
ADVERTISED NUMBERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL REMAIN ON THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF RESILIENT HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IS NOT
UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND WE EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT DAY TO
DAY CHANGES THROUGH THIS ENTIRE FORECAST. EARLY ON...WINDS MAY SURGE
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE FAR OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SO AN EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL REMAIN HEADLINED IN THAT
MARINE GROUPING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS TODAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1950...THE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 93F WAS LAST RECORDED. AND LAST
YEAR...THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS LAST
RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  83  91  83 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  93  84  93  82 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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