Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 251822
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
222 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Active radar day with scattered showers and thunderstorms flirting
with the Keys island chain from the middle to lower Keys, and moreso
over the Straits of Florida. Winds have freshened from the east, with
gusts reported at or above 20 knots at the taller CMANS south of the
island chain. Away from the rain-cooled and cloudy lower Keys,
temperatures are between 85 and 90 degrees.

High surface pressure will strengthen a little more towards its
expected peak intensity in the western Atlantic, off the southeast
coast of the United States tonight. Local winds should remain fresh
for much of tonight. But the Straits of Florida should feel the
highest sustained winds with accompanying gusts before beginning to
wane during the day Thursday. MIMIC imagery of moisture shows the
Keys are right on the northern cusp of higher moisture. Drier air is
more evident over the mainland as shallow cumulus has been the best
to developed there thus far into the afternoon. A trough through the
middle and upper levels will continue to reside just to the east of
the Florida peninsula over the next couple of days. Closer to the
surface, lower pressure is expected to form along a decaying trough
stretching far east from the Bahamas. Similar to the last few
forecast cycles, the large scale GFS and ECMWF are pulling a defined low
closer to the southeast coast of the United States by this weekend.
The GFS is not as robust on its latest solution when compared to its
previous few runs. And it does keep a more elongated trough along
the southeast coast, which should lead to a higher probability of
unsettled weather there. Closer to the Keys, numerical MOS numbers
are very close to what we have been advertising through the bulk of
the coming forecast, as far as rain chances are concerned. And, based
on the expected dynamics and available moisture, feel no need to
deviate far from them. However, did decide to include thunder for
each period beyond Thursday. One could argue for less available
convective energy, but a slight chance for thunder shouldn`t be ruled
out for any period through the end of the forecast. In general, a
small change. As far as temperatures, there should not be any large
day-to- day variations for any location away from isolated showers.
They should be at or slightly above seasonal average into the middle
of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As stated above, the Straits of Florida should feel the highest
sustained winds overnight with some gustiness. Seas are also expected
to build above the Small Craft Advisory criteria of 7 feet there.
This should not be a long-term episode, but enough to justify the
headline. Northeast to east winds will remain fresh elsewhere, with
an Exercise Caution headline for small craft. Beyond Thursday, expect
moderate or even gentle breezes across all coastal waters surrounding
the Florida Keys.

.AVIATION...VFR will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals this
evening and overnight. Scattered thunderstorms will reach the
vicinity of EYW between 18-20Z. Average storm motion will be from
the east-northeast at 15 KTS. Prepare for temporary convective wind
gusts near 25 knots and IFR CIG/VIS. Precipitation chances will
decrease overnight as gusty easterly winds resume across the island
chain.

&&

.CLIMATE...May 25th, on this date in Key West climate history, in
1995, the daily record warm low temperature of 82F was recorded.
This is also tied for the warmest low temperature ever recorded in
the month of May. Temperature records in Key West date back to 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for GMZ052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......Fling

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