Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 230752
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
252 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A squall line is heading for the Florida Keys and is moving past
the Dry Tortugas at this hour. The line is moving southeast near
25 knots, with individual cells moving northeast near 45 knots
within this line. These cells are composed of heavy downpours,
wind gusts around 45 knots or greater, occasional lightning
strikes, and near zero visibilities. Arrival in Key West will be
around 230 to 245 LST, then passing through the Upper Keys by 530
to 600 LST. As this line moved past the Dry Tortugas, Pulaski
Shoal Light measured a wind gust of 61 knots, or 70 mph.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
The cold front will lag behind the squall line currently
approaching the Lower Keys, arriving around 700 am. Cooler air
will advect over the Keys on the heels of the front. A tight
pressure gradient with cooler air moving over warm water around
the Keys, will keep strong winds across the area through this
evening. Winds will gradually decrease overnight and Tuesday. The
low that produced the cold front and severe weather across the
Deep South the past few days will move northeast today. A new low
pressure system will cross the Colorado Front Range midday
Tuesday. These book end lows will drive a developing ridge
northward across the Central Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and move
eastward. This ridge will be the catalyst for decreasing winds
over the area. With the cooler air arriving this morning, expect
drier air to filter in as well.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
The high pressure center will move across the Keys area early
Wednesday. Light winds will stretch from early Wednesday through
Thursday night. A series of troughs will trek across the Southern
Tier beginning Friday, providing better chances for showers, and
increasing winds through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
A small craft advisory remains in effect for all Keys Coastal
waters. A powerful squall line is nearing the Lower Keys at this
hour, 230 LST, and has a history of strong wind gusts within the
squall. Pulaski Shoal reported a wind gust of 61 knots, 70 mph. A
severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for the the
approaching line. The small craft advisory will likely extend
through at least midnight tonight. Breezes will gradually
decrease through the day Tuesday as high pressure over the Central
Gulf of Mexico drifts over South Florida and the Keys late
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
A passing squall line will bring immediate LIFR conditions to
Key West International Terminal. Strong winds with gusts to 50
knots are possible within this squall line, along with frequent
lightning. Marathon will see similar conditions an hour or so
later. A cold front will lag behind the squall, arriving around 7
am. Winds will be northwest through tonight, and gradually
decrease after 24/03z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Keys Weather History, 1983, 5.69 inches of rain
fell on the Key West International Airport. This set the daily
record for rainfall in Key West on January 23. Rainfall records
for Key West date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  74  65  76  65 / 40 -  0 0
Marathon  76  64  76  65 / 40 -  0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire.....BWC
Warnings/Radar.........BS
Aviation/Climate/LSR...EV
Data Collection........DR

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