Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 311313

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
913 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

KBYX detects patchy, light rain over the eastern portion of the
Florida Straits. Elsewhere, KBYX detects no precipitation echoes in
the remainder of the forecast area. Skies over the island chain are
cloudy. Winds over land are southeast to south at 15 to 20 mph. C-MAN
winds, on average, are southeast to south near 20 knots, with gusts
near 25 knots. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s.

.SHORT TERM (This afternoon)...
Tropical Depression Nine is located over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. This tropical depression should strengthen into a tropical
storm later today as it moves to the north-northeast. The 12z KKEY
sounding is moderately unstable and extremely moist, with a
precipitable water value just above two and one quarter of an inch.
Atmospheric moisture will remain constant this afternoon. Rain
chances for today will be kept below all numerical model output
statistics as most of the rainfall associated with Tropical
Depression Nine will remain west of the Florida Keys.


A small craft advisory is in effect for all Keys coastal waters this
afternoon due to sustained southeast to south winds of 20 to 25
knots. A small craft advisory will likely be required for the
offshore Gulf of Mexico and the western portions of Hawk Channel
and the Florida Straits tonight and Thursday. No advisories expected
Thursday night through at least Sunday night.


Rest of today, VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH
terminals. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop
in situ by late morning/afternoon. Outside of that, winds will
average from 160-180 degrees at or about 15 knots, with gusts to
between 20 and 25 knots at EYW, and around 12 knots with gusts
between 16 and 20 knots at MTH. Isolated gusts of around 30 knots
likely in any showers that reach either the EYW and/or MTH island


On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1872, 1.54 inches of
rain fell in Key West. This set the daily record for maximum rainfall
measured in Key West on August 31st, a record which still stands 144
years later. Rainfall records at Key West date back to 1871.


.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.



Data Collection......DR

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