Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 301732
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 30/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORE OF A SOUTHEAST FLOW IS BEGINNING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW BROKEN TO SCATTERED CU FIELD TO FORM...ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT VFR LEVELS. SOME DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS NOTED ON EARLIER UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN CHECK AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AT BEST...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF
PREVAILING GROUPS. WITH STABLE CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING WEAK E
TO SE FLOW OVER THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO SHRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. ISO SHRA AND PERHEAPS A TSRA EXPECTED
INLAND WITH AFTERNOON HEATING UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SE. INHERITED
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THIS...WITH 20% CHANCE OF PRECIP
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS ARE CAUSING MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AT A FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING, HOWEVER AS THE SUN
RISES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY A TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND KLFT AND KARA AND THIN PATCHY
FOG MAY BE A CONCERN AGAIN WED MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
BECOME SE DURING THE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PATCHY AND
SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT FOG NOTED ON AREA OBS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE
TIME BEING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/TRENDS. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...WHICH WAS ISOLATED AT BEST YESTERDAY...SHOULD BE EVEN
LESS TODAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER TX GLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE RESULTANT RETURNING
MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROF WILL YIELD BETTER CHANCES WED AND THU. THIS
ACTIVITY...PERHAPS INITIALLY AS NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WILL OTHERWISE BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL/SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

CDFNT STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...WHICH REPRESENTS THE BEST PCPN CHANCES OF THE FCST. RISK OF
SEVERE PER DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS MINIMAL...WITH BETTER
PROBABILITIES FARTHER NORTH TWD THE ARKLATEX AND PTS NORTH. MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SAT/SAT NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE COOLEST
PERIOD...AS HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 AND LOWS SAT NIGHT
FALL INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS POINTING TOWARD RETURNING RAIN CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
US DRY. CONTINUED TO LEAN TWD THE LATTER FOR THIS FCST.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  74  86  74  86 /  20  20  30  20  40
KBPT  87  75  86  76  86 /  20  20  30  20  40
KAEX  88  70  88  72  86 /  20  10  30  20  40
KLFT  88  73  86  74  86 /  20  20  40  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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