Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 251800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1200 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE NOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL SWING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH WINDS TRENDING MORE NORTHERLY. VFR
CONTINUING.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. NO DECENT
MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH AS MORNING SOUNDING FROM KLCH
HAD A PWAT OF 0.44 INCHES WHICH IS ONLY 57 PERCENT OF NORM...AND
GUIDANCE KEEPS PWAT VALUE AROUND 0.5 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. ONLY NOTICE WILL BE A
CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH
SOME DECENT GUSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT SOME OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
14Z THIS MORNING WITH VARYING VIS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE AND AS THE WINDS INCREASE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE VEERING NW THROUGH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS DRY AND
GENERALLY MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING SE THROUGH THE MO RIVER VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/FRONT PROGGED TO CONTINUE SE TODAY...THEN PIVOT
MORE TO THE EAST ON MON BECOMING A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER FOR
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. FOR OUR REGION...THE COOL FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE PG
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH NEAR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCEC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

A STEADY NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE
GULF WATERS. LOWS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT
THAN TONIGHT...THOUGH CAA WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF FCST
HIGHS TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

A STEADY WARM UP IS EXPECTED TUE THRU THU...WITH YET ANOTHER CDFNT
FCST TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE OVER THE
WEEKEND...GENERALLY WITH REGARD TO ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA
AS THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE MEAN PATTERN OF A CUT OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE BAJA WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER TX AND A
MEAN ERN CONUS TROF. THIS ACTUALLY BEGINS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LATE THU...WITH THE ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE GFS OR CGEM. CONTINUED WITH A BLENDED/CONSENSUS
APPROACH...SHOWING INCREASING CLOUD COVER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
LOW END RAIN CHANCES ENTERING THE PICTURE OVER THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WEST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY...WITH A LIGHT TO MODEST
OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING INTO TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO CROSS THE GULF
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  66  43  61  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  67  43  63  45  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  65  40  58  42  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  65  44  59  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$






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