Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 280824
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
324 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Weather map shows weakening pressure gradient over the NW Gulf as
high pressure builds eastward across the northern Gulf. Low
pressure trof axis aloft much less defined this morning, generally
over SE TX/LA. With this, much less showers on the radar this
morning.

The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will likely shift
further north today, mainly along and north of I-10 into inland SE
TX/C LA. This cause the mid/upper trof weaker and less defined,
but displaced further north today, and a weak sfc trof over the
arklatex expected to generate convection later this morning.
This, and any outflow boundaries from the north combining with
sea-breeze activity from the south will likely enhance convection
further inland during maximum heating. Most guidance, including
NAM12 and HRRR guidance, show this reasonably well.

For Friday, expecting less coverage overall, with the sea breeze
the primary focus for convection. For the remainder of the
forecast period, mainly sea-breeze late morning and afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, with possibly better chances for the
weekend into early next week over C and SC LA. Temperatures near
normal.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
SE to S winds 10-15 kts and seas 2-3 ft expected today and Friday,
diminishing a bit by the weekend as as high pressure becomes
established over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will continue today as general low pressure
weakness aloft remains over the region. Shower and thunderstorm
chances expected to gradually diminish later this week into the
weekend.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  74  94  75 /  50  20  30  20
LCH  91  77  92  78 /  40  20  30  20
LFT  92  76  92  76 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  92  77  93  78 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08


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