Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 110510
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1110 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
For the 11/06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Not much change in the thinking as far as the aviation forecast
from previous TAF package. Ridge in the low levels centered over
the Mid-Atlantic states which is allowing low level winds to
become more easterly and southeasterly. As this occurs, some
moisture is moving back into the forecast area. At this time,
cloud deck overnight will remain between 5k and 6k feet and VFR
levels.

On Sunday, low pressure is expected to develop over the Southern
Plains that will allow winds to become more southeast and
south. The winds will also increase and becoming gusty. This will
also allow moisture profiles to increase, with MVFR ceilings
expected at KBPT by afternoon and remainder of TAF sites by
evening hours.

Rua

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

UPDATE...Temperatures are quickly dropping across much of LA
this evening, however over SE TX clouds are generally keeping
temps in check and in line with the forecast. Temperatures across
the region are expected to continue to fall through the evening
and after midnight level off then gradually rise as winds become
more southeast and off the gulf. The forecast was modified to
reflect the current trends with temperatures.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the
Tennessee Valley which is providing an erly low-level flow over
the ern 1/2 of the forecast area...while sfc obs indicate winds
beginning to turn more serly over the wrn 1/2. Water vapor imagery
shows a near zonal flow aloft with weak ripples in the flow noted
crossing the srn Plains as well as out of the Rockies at this
time. Satellite imagery/sfc obs show a fairly solid overcast sky
mainly west of the forecast area...although some of this is
making it into the TX zones as the airmass gradually moistens.
Regional 88Ds are PPINE with low-level moisture lacking per
12Z soundings.

Tonight`s weather should remain quiet although clouds will be on
the increase as deepening srly flow moistens the column and allows
clouds to fill in. As a result overnight temps will be
considerable warmer across the swrn 1/3 of the area...some 15
degrees warmer across coastal sern TX. Temps will remain fairly
cool across the nern zones where moistening/cloudiness will
commence latest tonight...but still 5-10 degrees warmer than this
morning`s lows.

First significant disturbance aloft will move into the wrn Gulf
region tomorrow...combined with the better moisture will allow for
widely scattered showers to begin developing mainly during the
afternoon. The modification of recent temps will be in full force
tomorrow with highs in the 70s across much of the area. Shower
coverage will further increase Sunday night as a stronger
shortwave aloft crossing the Plains states pushes a weak cold
front toward the forecast area. Best rain chances are expected
Monday into Monday evening as the front just slips into the nrn
zones before stalling. Somewhat elevated rain chances will linger
into Tuesday before the next disturbance aloft gives the boundary
a push further into the forecast area through Wednesday...although
how much further remains a small question amongst the models at
this time. The airmass behind this front doesn`t look nearly as
cool as the past boundary with mins Wednesday and Thursday nights
in the 40s to lower 50s...and highs Thursday in the 50s to around
60.

With a progressive pattern in place the sfc high pushes quickly
across the ern CONUS, allowing return flow to set up by Friday...
with temps rebounding well into the 60s. Models advertising small
QPFs into the weekend as the airmass quickly re-moistens (although
forecast soundings really don`t show a great deal of drying behind
the front) so small POPs are retained. Best shot at rain comes at
the very end of this forecast with the next fropa.

MARINE...
Caution headlines were introduced for late tonight over the swrn
waters as the gradient tightens sufficiently on low pressure
deepening over the srn Plains. After a brief lull in the morning,
expect an elevated srly flow to re-develop over much of the waters
as another low develops near the Red River Valley and re-tightens
the gradient. Thereafter winds should remain below any headline
criteria until maybe Thursday as a brief round of CAA moves over
the waters with the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  39  68  58  72 /   0  10  40  50
LCH  45  71  61  75 /   0  10  30  40
LFT  43  70  60  76 /   0   0  20  40
BPT  49  74  64  77 /   0  20  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07



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