Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
FXUS64 KLCH 232334
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
634 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016
For the 24/00Z TAF issuance.
Upper level disturbance moving out of Northern Old Mexico will
continue to bring upper level clouds across the region through the
TAF period. Meanwhile...surface high pressure will ridge over the
region from the Southeast US, that will keep a light east to
southeast flow with meager low level moisture return. Therefore,
conditions are expected to remain at VFR levels through the
period, with the only exception some patchy fog with MVFR
visibilities at KAEX around sunrise.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016/
Short Term...Tonight through Monday night...
Main forecast issue will be fog potential especially on Monday
night. Although there were considerable high clouds today...plenty
of sunshine helped raised temperatures into the upper 70s to lower
80s. Minimum temperatures should be a few degrees higher tonight as
low level easterly flow continues to modify the air mass. Some
patchy fog may occur tonight...but likely not enough to
significantly reduce visibilities. Warmer and slightly more humid
conditions are expected for Monday with temperatures reaching
well into the 80s. Conditions should be favorable for more
widespread fog Monday night.
Long Term...Tuesday through Sunday
Upper pattern is forecasted to amplify with ridge building over
the south central U.S. and a trough digging over the eastern U.S.
Models hint at PWATs increasing to near 1.5 inches approaching the
coast on Wednesday. Deep easterly flow is still progged over the
Gulf. While some precipitation could move over coastal
areas...believe best chance for rain will be offshore. For
now...will have low rain chances over lower Acadiana on Wednesday.
Models continue the trend of developing a low near the Yucatan
late in the week. For now...believe this system will aid in
further suppressing moisture to the south. Temperatures will
continue to stay above normal.
Broad high pressure will continue across the SE U.S. through this
week. Gradient is expected to tighten as low develops over the
Yucatan. Easterly flow will be maintained and may be strong enough
for SCEC/SCA conditions late in the week. Higher than normal
tides are expected especially over SE Texas.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 51 80 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 57 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 55 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 60 82 60 82 / 10 0 0 0