Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 241118
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
618 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND ONLY
SLOWLY MODERATE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AT THE SFC AND DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROF DIGGING TO THE EAST.

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS ADVERTISED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS HEADING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THE MODERATING TREND IS
PROGGED TO ACCELERATE A BIT ONCE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA LATE SAT PERMITTING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS FCST TO TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
FLATTEN OUT A BIT BY UPSTREAM ENERGY TRAVERSING THE WRN CONUS. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RE-AMPLIFY OVER THE SE CONUS AS THIS WRN TROF
DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW...RESULTING IN A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FETCH
AND INCREASING MSTR QUALITY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WILL STALL AND WASH OUT NORTH/WEST
OF THE REGION...THOUGH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS STILL
SUFFICIENT TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF FCST HIGHS COMPARED TO
THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A SMALL POP IN THE TUE-THU TIME PERIOD.
DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...APPARENT OVER THE WRN CONUS
WED...BEGIN TO REAR THEIR HEAD HERE ON THU WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING
A ROBUST FROPA THU/THU NIGHT. CONTINUED ALONG THE LINES OF THE
PREV FCST BY BLENDING THIS SOLUTION INTO THE GRIDS...SHOWING A
COOLING/CLEARING TREND FROM THU INTO FRI.

13

MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY AS A
LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  53  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  79  55  83  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  76  50  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  77  52  81  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$







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