Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 231001
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COLDER AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT NOW SITUATED WELL OUT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. A
FEW SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON OUR RADAR OUT ABOUT 120 NM...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NOW STATIONARY BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD HOLD OVER THE MIDWEST
WHILE TROPICAL EASTERLIES CONTINUE DEEP MOISTURE OUT IN THE GULF.
TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TNITE UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTEROON. MEAN RH WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL
AREA TNITE.

&&

.LONG TERM...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN AN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THIS WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES LANDFALL IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
ON SUNDAY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER
THE ARKLATEX WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER EAST TEXAS.
BOTH MODELS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE EAST.

OPTED TO GO WITH A BLEND ON QPF AND TEMPS AS THE EURO CONTINUES
COLDER. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON DRYING CONDITIONS WITH THE GFS
SHOWING RIDGING WHILE THE EURO HAS THE LOW KICKING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...SCEC OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS WITH WINDS CONTINUING
TO TAPER OFF BY TNITE. THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SEE A TRANSITION
BACK TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE FRONT BEGINS A RETREAT BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH
TROPICAL EASTERLIES MEETING THE DRY POLAR NORTHEASTERLIES.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  59  84  66  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
KBPT  85  61  84  68  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
KAEX  84  55  84  62  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
KLFT  83  59  84  66  85 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

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&&

$$






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