Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 161807
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1207 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Cold front has moved well offshore with blustery north winds
bringing much colder air into the area. Temperatures as of 11 AM
range from 27 at Fort Polk and Esler Field to 43 at Patterson,
with middle 30s along the southwest LA/southeast TX coast. More
importantly, local radars shows areas of light precipitation
acrs southwest LA and southeast TX. Obs and area skycams indicate
that this is mainly snow north of a Warren-Oakdale-Bunkie line,
with a mix of snow/ice pellets and rain southward to I-10.
Between I-10 and the coast, precip trends toward a predominantly
liquid form. The transition from liquid to a mix or all frozen
will shift southward through the aftn.

Accumulations so far have been low, with reports from the public
of one quarter of an inch of snow or less. Additional
accumulations of up to an inch are possible acrs the Lakes Region
of southeast TX into central LA, with lower amounts further south.
The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the area through
late aftn for the northern zones and through evening for the
southern zones.

Made some adjustments to Pop/Wx grids for today into this evening
to reflect obs and southward transition, but changes were not too
significant. Temperatures will continue to drop through the
evening, and a hard freeze is expected acrs the entire area for
several hours overnight. In addition, dangerously cold wind chills
are expected with winds remaining around 10 mph and a Wind Chill
Advisory remains in effect as well.

Stay warm and safe!

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 540 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/

AVIATION...

Few changes have been made to the previous TAF package as ceilings
at most sites, with the exception of KLFT and KARA, have
transitioned to MVFR and will continue to fall to IFR over the
next few hours. Precipitation is still expected to transition
from -RA to a wintry mix from N to S through the morning hours.
KAEX will have the best chance for a full changeover to -SN during
the day. TEMPO MVFR visibility restrictions can be expected in any
of the areas of steadier precipitation.

Northerly winds will remain elevated at 15-20 knots with gusts of
25-30 knots possible throughout the day. Winds are expected to
gradually decrease to around 10 knots by this evening. Ceilings
will also begin to improve to VFR by late this evening.

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows strong arctic cold front with 1050mb high behind it
moving through most of Texas this morning, just entering inland SE
TX and N LA within the last hour. As the cold air wedges beneath
the warmer moist atmosphere, increased moisture pooling and lift
is be generated. Precipitation expected to transition to a mix of
freezing rain, ice pellets and snow early this morning as
temperatures fall across inland SE TX/C LA. The mix of wintry
precipitation will spread south through early afternoon, while
areas north of I-10 will see a changeover to mainly snow.
Accumulations are not expected to be significant, but snow amounts
of one half to one inch will be possible across interior
southeast Texas into central Louisiana. Further south, snow
amounts are expected to be less than one half inch. Ice
accumulation is also expected to be minimal, not exceeding more
than a few hundredths of an inch. Primary impacts for ice will be
to bridges and elevated roadways. Precipitation will end from
north to south this evening. Hazards include a Winter Weather
Advisory for the entire area. Wind advisory along and south of
I-10 for the strong winds behind the front.

In addition, strong northerly winds will produce dangerous wind
chills. Wind chill values will dip into the teens by late afternoon.
As temperatures continue to fall during the evening, wind chills
will fall into the single digits across central and western
Louisiana, with lower teens elsewhere. These dangerously cold
conditions will linger into Wednesday morning as low temperatures
reach the middle to upper teens across inland SE TX/C LA along and
north of the U.S. 190 corridor. Along the I-10 corridor, expect
lows in the upper teens to near 20, with lower 20s along the
coast. Hazards include a Wind Chill Advisory and Hard Freeze
Warning for the entire area.

Warming trend expected by Friday into the weekend. An upper level
disturbance moving across northern Mexico and Texas will generate
a surface wave off the Texas coast by Friday, with a chance of
showers through Saturday. Another cold front will generate
moisture and lift for increased chances of showers Sunday,
clearing out by Monday.

DML

MARINE...
An arctic front will move through the area today, ushering a very
cold airmass into the region. Northerly winds will rapidly
strengthen behind the front, with gusts to gale force expected
through Wednesday morning. Hazards of Gale warning and small
craft advisory continues and remains unchanged from previous
forecast cycle.

However, due to the strong offshore winds expected, ETSurge
guidance showing tides reaching around -1.0 to -1.5 feet MLLW later
this morning across the coast and inland lakes/bays, and -1.5 to
-2.0 feet MLLW Wednesday morning. Hazards include low water
 advisory for both time periods.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  31  16  35  18 /  70  10  10  10
LCH  36  20  37  23 /  70  30  10  10
LFT  35  19  35  21 /  70  30  10  10
BPT  37  21  38  24 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday
     for LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LAZ052>055-073-074.

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday
     for LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM CST
     Wednesday for LAZ027>033.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     LAZ027>033.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CST
     Wednesday for LAZ028-029-031>033.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for LAZ027-030.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ041>045.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday
     for TXZ201-215-216-261-262.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TXZ201-
     215-216-261-262.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TXZ215.

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday
     for TXZ201-215-216-261-262.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM CST
     Wednesday for TXZ180-259-260.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ180-
     259-260.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for TXZ180-259-260.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ216.

GM...Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-
     475.

     Low Water Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ430-432-435.

     Low Water Advisory from 4 AM to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ430-
     432-435.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$



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