Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 232242
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
242 PM PST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A series of winter storms will affect the region through
the weekend. Temperatures will remain well below normal and snow
showers will move periodically over the state. Travel may be
affected from time to time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday.

Models are fairly consistent with the persistence of the long wave
trough over the western US and series of short waves with
generally maritime polar qualities moving southeast into the Great
Basin through Monday. Next short will arrive Saturday and models
agree generally with the GFS being a little more enthusiastic on
QPF. The wave moves out by Sunday morning. Snow totals will vary
widely over the northeastern 1/3 of the region. Main area of
concern is bounded by a Jackpot/Rubies/Battle Mountain/Santa Rosas
line. Valleys will get from 1-3 inches with isolate higher
amounts and mountains (mainly Rubies, Jarbidge, Independence, and
Santa Rosas) will get 4-7 with higher amounts. Summits and passes,
as always will get tricky. Issued WSW for most of the north
Saturday morning through Sunday morning.

Sunday will get about a twelve hour break with sun poking out and
chilly, but then the next wave arrives Sunday night and runs
though Monday with lesser amounts. Models differ on this one so
confidence is lower on amounts.

Temps will remain below normal but not frigid as cloud cover and
winds will compensate for some snow cover.


.LONG TERM...Monday night through next Friday.

Forecast confidence remains high for early next week with a storm
system that will dig southward into California and likely impact
northern, then central Nevada with at least advisory criteria
snows and winter conditions from late Sunday night through Tuesday
morning. Light to locally moderate valley, and moderate to
locally heavy mountain snows are expected with this system.

There will be a brief break in the active weather pattern Tuesday
afternoon and night before a weak shortwave trough and the
southern extent of some Pacific moisture clips the northern third
of Nevada with light snow showers mainly in mountainous areas on
Wednesday.

Forecast confidence has lowered by the end of the week. After a
few days of reasonable model continuity, both GFS and EC do not
dig a Pacific Northwest upper low southward into the western
trough next weekend as earlier runs indicated. A lead shortwave
with a decent slug of energy and moisture is forecast to plow into
northern and central California on Thursday which should lead to a
Pacific cold front moving across Nevada Thursday night into
Friday. As a result, bumped up temperatures Thursday afternoon
through midday Friday in anticipation of milder south to southwest
flow ahead of this system. Still anticipate it will be cold
enough for mainly snow showers to accompany this frontal passage,
but less confident at this time as to how much moisture may be
able to spill over the Sierra to help generate any significant
precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...A few lingering light snow showers/VCSH around KELY
will end early this afternoon while NNW winds at KTPH gust 25 to
30 kts through early evening. Otherwise, there will be a brief
break in an active weather pattern with VFR conditions prevailing
across the region tonight into Saturday morning.

Next weather system will quickly spread another round of snow
showers accompanied by MVFR to intermittent IFR conditions from
north to south Saturday mid-morning into the evening. Snow
showers are expected to develop toward 18Z at KWMC and KEKO and
remain possible through 21Z to near 00Z. Snow showers are then
forecast to reach KELY just before 00Z Sunday and continue until
around 06Z. Impacts at KTPH will be less and limited to a few
VCSH between 00Z to 06Z Sunday.

Extended Outlook. Another storm system with more in the way of
energy and moisture is expected to bring yet another round of
valley and mountain snows with MVFR to intermittent IFR conditions
moving from northern into central Nevada from late Sunday night
through early Tuesday morning.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM PST Sunday
for Humboldt County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander County
and Northern Eureka County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-
South Central Elko County-Southwestern Elko County.

&&

$$

98/95/95



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