Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 301018
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
218 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY...SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NEVADA. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
30S ACROSS THE LKN CWFA THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL LOW
CIRCULATION JUST MOVING INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AT THIS
TIME. A MOIST FLOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO NEVADA AT THIS HOUR.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE AT KELY HAS INCREASED ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

AS THE INCOMING LOW FEATURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SCOOPS UP
SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND FROM
THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW...SNOW
LEVELS THROUGH TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 6500 TO
7000 FEET ACROSS NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES TO BETWEEN 6000 AND
6500 FEET ACROSS EASTERN ELKO COUNTY. THUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS WILL BE THE NORM. THEN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AS RIDGING PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO PUSH THE
TROUGH SOUTH...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS
SNOW LEVELS SLOWLY DESCEND TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SNAKE RANGE IN WHITE PINE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
BENEFIT BEST FOR SNOW WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE EXITING
TROUGH...AND COULD RECEIVE OVER ONE FOOT OF SNOW TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN THAT HAS PLAGUED NEVADA THE PAST FEW WEEKS SHOWS SIGNS OF
RETURNING TO A MORE WETTER...OR AT LEAST...MORE INTERESTING
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
STORMS EXPECTED...BUT A FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY IMPACT NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH HOPE OF A LARGER ONE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOIST...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THERE ARE
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MEASURABLE PRECIP. BEST
CHANCES OR CONSENSUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA. DID
NOT GO WITH THE WETTER GFS AS THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER...BRINING
MOISTURE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. DID PUT SOME GHOST
POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTH...FOCUS IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...SOME HOPE IN A DEEPENING MOIST PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVING INLAND INTO CALI...BUT BEING THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WE CAN ONLY HOPE THIS BRINGS A
PATTERN CHANGE AND BRING MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS INTO
NEVADA...WHICH IS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...KEKO/KWMC WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THERE WILL BE A SCT/BKN DECK AROUND 10K FT. THERE MAY BE SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS AROUND 3-4K FT. KELY WILL SEE LOW CIGS THROUGH FRI
MORNING AND MAY LAST LATE INTO FRI NIGHT. MVFR/IFR WILL BE THE
PREDOMINATE CATEGORIES...BUT LIFR HAS OCCURRED. SOME -SHRA/-SHSN MAY
OCCUR IN KELY...ESPECIALLY DURING FRI LATE DAY/EVENING. KTPH WILL
SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND VCSH. MVFR IS POSSIBLE BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE IN TAF. CONFIDENCE IS 30% FOR MVFR.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94



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