Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 022241
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
341 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MOST
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON FROM WEDNESDAY ON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS LATER IN THE WEEK MAY BRING MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70 THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN TREND COLDER WITH HIGHS THIS WEEKEND
ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE CWA FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 10K FEET HAS LEAD TO PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAPPING INVERSION FROM 10K-11K FEET WHICH IS INHIBITING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGEST CAP IS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH A MUCH WEAKER CAP OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES THIS EVENING...WITH VERY LIMITED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IF ANY. DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT.
CLOUDS REDEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEVADA ON TUESDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HUMBOLDT
AND FAR WESTERN LANDER COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

SPLITTING TROUGH ENERGY ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AND ACTIVITY. MOST STORM ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER HUMBOLDT...LANDER
EUREKA...AND THE WESTERN HALF OF ELKO COUNTY WEST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAIN RANGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS TROUGH ENERGY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
CLOUD COVER BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS SHOULD HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S...MAKING TONIGHTS LOWS LIKELY THE
COOLEST OF THE WEEK WITH 30S IN MOST VALLEYS.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WET WEATHER WILL
CHARACTERIZE MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CA SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST PUTTING NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV UNDER WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS 7500 FEET
OR HIGHER RESULTING IN LITTLE OR NO IMPACTS. IT WILL BEGIN TO DRY
OUT ON MONDAY AS UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION WITH
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVER CENTRAL NV THRU 02Z. WILL COVER THIS POSSIBILITY WITH VCTS AT
THE KTPH AND KELY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK DUE TO
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT MELTING OF SNOW FROM HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME SMALLER CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY
EXCEED BANKFULL. LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS
CREEK...AND THE BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT RESPOND MORE
RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. HIGH FLOWS IN OR NEAR THESE AND
OTHER SMALL STREAMS MAY CAUSE SOGGY OR ERODED SECONDARY ROADWAYS
THAT COULD MAKE THEM IMPASSABLE.

THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM PALISADE TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A RISE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM
STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/91/91



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