Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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570
FXUS65 KLKN 251017
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
317 AM PDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An approaching Pacific trough brings increasing cloud
cover and briefly hotter temperatures for Sunday into Monday.
Isolated dry thunderstorms and breezy conditions will elevate
wildfire danger on Monday afternoon and evening across portions of
central and northern Nevada.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Monday.
Today will see the upper level ridge break down and mid level
moisture associated with a pacific trough intrude into the Great
Basin. This will bring a few clouds into Nevada today with the
chance for an isolated high based thunderstorm in western Humboldt
county. On Monday the bulk of the trough will move through Nevada
bringing a decent amount of mid level moisture that will cause
high based thunderstorms across the Northern and eastern Portions
of the CWA. Due to the significant dry layer beneath these storms
there will be mostly virga and little rain with the chance for
strong gusty outflows. Breezy winds will accompany the passage of
the system with Monday afternoon seeing winds gust into the 20s
and 30s mph in the valleys. Daytime temperatures remain hot and
will peak in the 90s to around 100 degrees on Monday with lows
mainly in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through next Saturday. Near-zonal flow
over the region through the long-term period will result in
generally dry and mild conditions with slightly above normal
temperatures. Monday night the weak disturbance over northern NV
will drift east exiting into Utah on Tuesday. There may be just
enough lingering moisture and some instability for isolated
thunderstorms over portions of northern Humboldt and Elko Counties
through early Tuesday evening. Otherwise, mostly sunny and dry
Tuesday with high temperatures at least a few degrees cooler than
Monday. Kept some isolated thunderstorms in the forecast across
northeastern Elko County for Wednesday afternoon per 00Z GFS
guidance, however 06Z guidance came in more stable suggesting no
storms anywhere in the CWA Wednesday. Kept the remainder of the
long-term period dry for now, however latest GFS guidance is
suggesting a possible return of thunderstorm activity across most
of northern NV and portions of east-central NV next Saturday.
Current guidance shows limited moisture for next Saturday, and as
such any TS activity would be expected to be isolated. Held off on
adding TS wording for next Saturday at this time as GFS and ECMWF
models are not yet in agreement with this solution.


&&

.AVIATION...One more day of relatively light winds across most of
northern and central NV. There may be some isolated TS over far
northwestern NV today, however all terminals will be storm-free
with VFR conditions today.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Only impact for Sunday will be the chance for
isolated dry thunderstorms in western FWZ 467 during the
afternoon hours. Focus is on Monday, particularly during the
afternoon and evening hours as sufficient mid-level moisture and
instability will exist to trigger more wide spread isolated dry
thunderstorms capable producing locally strong outflow winds
across portions of central and northern Nevada. To compound
matters, southwest winds are expected to increase to around 20 mph
for the later half of the afternoon and early evening with gusts
to around or a bit above 30 mph likely. As a result, a fire
weather watch remains in effect for lightning for FWZs 454, 469,
and 470; and for winds for FWZs 468 and 467.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for Central Lander and Eureka Counties-Central and Western
Humboldt County-Eastern Elko County-Eastern Humboldt County and
Northwestern Elko County-Southwestern and Central Elko County.

&&

$$

99/96/96/99



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