Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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478
FXUS65 KLKN 032204
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
204 PM PST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Quiet weather will continue today and into early
Sunday across Nevada. A cold front will move through the state
early next week bringing light snow showers to northern Nevada Sunday
into early Monday. Another winter disturbance is expected to
bring more snow to the region late Monday into Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday.

Tonight through Monday. Ridging across the Great Basin is eroding
as a trough begins to form off the Pacific Northwest. The ridge
will continue the quiet weather that is currently present into
early sunday. By sunday afternoon the trough and associated weak
storm system will drag a cold front across the silver state late
Sunday and into Monday. This will cause some light snow showers
primarily across northern Humboldt and Elko county with snow
accumulations of an inch in the valleys and 2-4 inches in the
mountains. Gusty westerly winds will be associates with the cold
frontal passage.

Monday night through Tuesday. Another winter storm system is
expected to move across the silver state bringing another round of
snow showers. There will be more moisture associated with this
system compared to the sunday/monday system which will yield
higher snow accumulations. This system will also reach further
south into central Nevada producing noticeable accumulations
further southward. The snow accumulations in the valleys of 1 1/2
inches and 2-4 inches in the mountains. The snow may impact
travel on Highway 93 and eastern I-80 especially on Pequop Summit.


Temperatures will be relatively warm before frontal passage with
highs in the lows 40`s to low 50`s and lows in the teens and 20`s
on Sunday. Following the passage of the cold front the highs will
drop to the 20`s and 30`s with the lows in the single digits to
teens.


.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday. Cool northwest flow
aloft Tuesday night through Wednesday night bringing below normal
temperature to the region. Flow aloft backs to more zonal
direction by Thursday afternoon as warmer pacific air moves into
the Great Basin. Both the GFS and ECMWF models showing moisture
returning to northern NV Thursday morning and afternoon, with snow
expanding southeast into central NV Thursday evening and
overnight. May see a few tenths of an inch of QPF in the Thursday
to Friday time-frame to areas north of highway 50. Snow levels are
in question however. Have raised the snow levels for the Thursday
to Friday period with the latest forecast package, however based
on 1000-500 thicknesses as well as H7 temps and soundings, may
still need to raise snow levels a little higher. Perhaps high
enough for most valley precipitation to fall as rain, or a rain
snow mix. Moist zonal flow Friday veers back to the northwest
next Saturday which should limit precipitation to the mountains of
northern Nevada, while also bringing some gusty winds into the
cwa.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected through Sunday afternoon.
Snow showers return to Northern Nevada Sunday night with brief
restrictions to vis and cig at KWMC and KEKO possible by around
midnight Sunday night.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/96/96



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