Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 172216
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
316 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST PUSHES INLAND
AND INCREASES SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOME HAZE FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FIRES MAY PUSH INTO THE SILVER STATE. TOMORROW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NEVADA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CUMULUS BUILDUP HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE LKN CWA TODAY...MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL NEVADA
CONVERGENCE ZONE...WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING OVER THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. THE MAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. THE NAM 12 HAMMERS
THE EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW WITH -4 LIS...WIDESPREAD +1000 J/KG OF
CAPE AND DECENT BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS...WHICH JUSTIFIED BUMPING
UP THE POPS THIS PACKAGE...OVER WHITE PINE AND EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY. THE PW FRM THE LATEST ELKO SOUNDING WAS .63 WHICH IS 141
PERCENT OF NORMAL....AND THE PROGGED SOUNDING FOR BOTH ELY AND
ELKO HOLD ONTO THE MOISTURE FOR THURSDAY. THE GFS AND THE EC BOTH
HAVE THE LOW DROPPING OFF THE COAST OF CA...WITH THE EC BEING A
SKOSH MORE TO THE SOUTH. EXPECTING THE LIONS SHARE OF THE QPF
TOMORROW AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE LOW EXITS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
ADDITION...MODELS DIFFER ON THE H5 DEFORMATION ZONE DURING THE
PERIOD WHICH COULD IMPACT THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR
SANTA BARBARA FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CWA IS NOT YET UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW. THUS HAVE KEPT THE CWA DRY. HAVE LOWERED POPS SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF REMAINS MAINLY
SOUTH OF CWA...EXCEPT ALONG THE DEFORMATION AXIS RUNNING THROUGH
CENTRAL WHITE PINE COUNTY. MAIN MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS PUSH NORTHWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
OF THE CWA EXCEPT EXTREME WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. GFS HIS FASTEST
PUSHING OUT THE UPPER LOW WHILE THE EC AND GEM KEEP IT FURTHER WEST
SUNDAY. STILL..GFS HAS ENOUGH WRAP AROUND TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. BY 21Z MONDAY MODELS DO AGREE WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THUS EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME
NE NV MONDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE THE CWA DRY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. JH


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY AND
KTPH THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT KELY...KWMC...
KEKO AND KTPH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. JH


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. EXPECT AN
INCREASE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW. WETTING RAINS
POSSIBLE...WITH BEST CHANCES EXPECTED IN 455 AND 470. SOME GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT THE RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED ALSO.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/87/87/97




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