Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 310345
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
845 PM PDT MON MAY 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with warming temperatures are expected
this week. High temperatures in most valley locations will be in
the upper 80s to mid 90s late this week.
.UPDATE...added hydrology discussion below.
.HYDROLOGY...Warm temperatures have escalated melting of the high-
elevation snow-pack, leading to a substantial rise in some rivers
and creeks. Lamoille Creek is showing a strong diurnal profile,
peaking in the evening and running less strong during the
overnight and daytime hours. The creek, which has been peaking
around 9 pm in each evening, may rise briefly to flood stage
Thursday evening then recede for the remainder of the night.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT /
SYNOPSIS...Some lingering showers and thunderstorms over East-
central Nevada this afternoon...otherwise dry with warming
temperatures through the week. High temperatures in most valley
locations will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s over the latter half
of this week.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. Upper ridge in models
slides east over weakening upper low off California coast. Dry air
into the Great Basin with growing stability will keep skies mostly
sunny through Tuesday. Precipitation-less after a few
showers/thunderstorms late this afternoon/early evening over far
eastern White Pine County. Big story: warming trend through
Tuesday. Warmer than normal.
LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday. A strong ridge of high
pressure will bring dry conditions along with much above normal
temperatures. Highs in the mid 70s to the mid 80s on Wednesday will
warm into the 80s to the lower 90s Friday through Sunday.
Precipitation is expected to be close to nil at virtually every
place in the forecast area.
AVIATION...Isolated thunderstorms will occur between roughly 00Z
and 03Z generally east of a line from Owyhee to Austin to Round
Mountain. The highest probability will be east of a line from
Jackpot to Ely. Wind gusts from storms could reach 35 to 40 knots
briefly. Isolated mountain obscuration will occur around KELY with
an outside chance of it around KEKO. Convection tapers off after
sunset Sunday. Monday afternoon thunderstorms will form much further
southeast over mainly White Pine County and northeast Nye County.
FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will dominate the next couple days
over all zones with dry air creeping in. temperatures will warm to
above normal levels. Min RH will range from single digits in zone
457 to 20s in zones 469/470. Max RH will be in the 50s to around
70. 20 foot winds generally light with drainage patterns setting
up. Outlook for remainder of week: much MUCH warmer with temps
reaching 80s and even low 90s by the weekend. Little chance for