Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 290233
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
633 PM PST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...PERSISTENT BAND OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE VIS BELOW CAT A LANDING MINIMUMS, AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KEKO. BAND OF SNOW IS SPREADING SOUTH SLOWLY, AND
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AT KEKO STARTING AROUND 04Z. FOLLOWED
THIS THINKING WITH A KEKO TAF AMENDMENT.

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 521 PM /

SYNOPSIS...A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS LATE AFTERNOON...BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. PERSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS SET
UP CROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...MAINLY ALONG I-80. SPOTTERS ACROSS
NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA AND ELKO COUNTIES HAVE REPORTED AROUND 0.5
TO 2 INCHES AT THIS TIME. NAM12 IS DEPICTING A FRONTOGENETIC BAND
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND MOVEMENT OF THIS BAND WILL BE SLOW. HAVE
INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS. WILL ALSO ISSUE A NOWCAST TO BETTER PINPOINT LOCATIONS.
TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 402 PM /

UPDATE...HAVE EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT 4 PM. NO
OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 303 PM /

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL HUMBOLDT COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST ELKO
COUNTY AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS THIS BAND PASSED OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY EARLIER
TODAY RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.
HOWEVER, THE FRONTAL BAND IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES SOUTH
SO GENERALLY EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THIS BAND PASSES
THROUGH, BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER THE HEAVIEST
SNOW SHOWERS. BY MORNING THE FRONTAL BAND WILL HAVE MOSTLY FIZZLED
OUT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NV. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIG SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY CARVING OUT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE REGION AND BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON SO FAR. HIGHS ON TUE/WED WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
EASTERN NV WITH AND MID 20S IN THE WARMEST LOCALES OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST NV. IN ADDITION NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BRING
WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS AT NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS EASTERN NV AND 0 TO 5
ABOVE ELSEWHERE. ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY AS NOT MUCH MOISTURE IN THE FRIGID AIRMASS. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END ACROSS NORTHERN NV BY TUE AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH. CENTRAL NV WILL SEE A THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT
LEAST WED MORNING, WITH SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NORTHERN
NYE COUNTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD AS COLD CONTINENTAL AIR SPREADS SOUTH
FROM FROM CANADA AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPPER LOW PUSHES
EAST WITH THE MOST OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA.  BEST
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEASTERN
NYE AND SOUTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF DRY
SNOW. AS THE LOW EJECTS EAST INTO ARIZONA THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
BACK TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE EACH DAY...YET WILL STILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN NORTH OF
NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTION
DIVERGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS GFS KEEPS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH PRECIPITATION DROPPING INTO EXTREME NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND
ELKO COUNTIES BY SATURDAY MORNING. ECMWF BEGINS TO BUILD IN A RIDGE
OVER NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS MOVING NW TO SE THROUGH
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING
SNOW TO REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF KWMC THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING
HOURS. KEKO IS CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO LOWER INTO IFR OR LIFR CATEGORIES AT TIMES
THIS EVENING AND INTO MONDAY AS SHOWERS PASS OVER THE AREA. AS THE
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTS SOUTH THIS EVENING EXPECT SNOW TO BE IN
THE VICINITY OF KELY BY 06-08Z...WITH SHOWERS BRIEFLY REDUCING CIGS
AND VIS INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TO REMAIN NORTH OF KTPH THROUGH
AT LEAST 00Z TUESDAY...WITH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5-15KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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