Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 232104
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
204 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorms will continue across much of northern
and central NV this afternoon and evening. Thursday and Friday
will be much more quiet weather-wise, with storms possible only
over eastern Elko and White Pine Counties. Warmer and drier this
weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Friday. Visible satellite
imagery showing cumulus clouds building over most of the CWA
ridgelines early this afternoon with most lightning so far over
far western Humboldt and northeastern Elko Counties. Later this
afternoon and early this evening expect increased storm activity
over most of the rest of the CWA, with greatest activity over
Lander, Eureka and Elko Counties. Storms over far western
Humboldt and far eastern Elko Counties should have the heaviest
precipitation today as PW`s in these areas are around 0.8 to 0.9
inches. Some storms in these areas may see a tenth of an inch of
rain. As for most of the rest of the CWA, progged PW`s range from
0.6 to 0.8 inches. Storms in these areas should see somewhere
between virga and 5 hundredths on an inch of rain.

Drier and more stable conditions on Thursday, with only a slight
chance of thunderstorms over central and eastern Elko County,
along with northern White Pine County. Similar storm locations
expected on Friday, however with more shear across northern and
eastern Elko County Friday, expecting more storms Friday than we
see in these areas Thursday, with some storms possibly producing
half inch hail sizes.


.LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday. The EC and GFS
remain consistent in keeping a four corners high over the desert
southwest and generally agree on placement of the high center.
There is some changes to the high center but overall the run to
run consistency remains high. This boosts confidence greatly for
long term prediction.

The end of the week into mid next week look to remain a dry period
with calm weather as a four corner high sits over the region.
The exception to this may be Wednesday next week as the high
center shifts just enough to allow for a little moisture to
intrude into central Nevada. However this remains uncertain as a
shift in the center placement can preclude any moisture flow into
Nevada. Since the consistency has been between model runs is
high and it was showing such moisture last run, decided to
include some isolated dry thunderstorms in central Nevada
Wednesday afternoon. The biggest impact that will come from this
high pressure will be the return of hot temperatures across
Nevada. Many region should return to at least mid if not upper 90s
for highs and 50s to 60s for lows. Some spots may even reach back
into the 100s as well.

&&

.AVIATION...Thunderstorms across northern and central portions of
Nevada this afternoon impacting mainly KEKO and KWMC with a
lesser chance to impact KELY. Otherwise VFR conditions expected
outside of Thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Red flag warnings remain in effect through this
evening for fire weather zones 454 469 and 470 where isolated to
scattered dry thunderstorms are expected. Much of the rest of
northern and portions of central NV will also see storms
developing through the early evening hours. Northwestern 467 is
one particular area of concern today as a mix of wet and dry
storms, possibly scattered in coverage are expected. Drier and
more stable air is moving into eastern 467 and western 468 this
afternoon, and as such only expecting isolated dry storms in this
area.

Little if any storm activity expected on Thursday. If storms
do develop on Thursday, they would be over eastern Elko and White
Pine Counties. Dry thunderstorms are expected over eastern Elko
and White Pine Counties on Friday, which at this time look to be
isolated in coverage. Much warmer and likely storm-free
conditions this weekend across all zones.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Central Lander
and Eureka Counties-Eastern Elko County-Southwestern and Central
Elko County.

&&

$$

96/99/99/96


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