Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 301720
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1020 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SMOKE
FROM CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES WILL RESULT IN HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SPREADING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. AT THIS TIME SMOKE CAN BE
SCENE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHWESTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. SMOKE IS BEING TRANSPORTED AT APPROXIMATELY 30 MILES PER
HOUR...MEANING IT WILL REACH NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT SMOKE TO SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL WINDS DIMINISH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 234 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MID-WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE SOMEWHAT WARMER AT MANY LOCATIONS NOW COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO...WITH SOME READINGS 10-15 DEGREES WARMER.

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING NORTHERN NEVADA
TODAY. A DRY COLD IS SET TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO ALL
OF THE AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEVADA IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

SKIES ARE GOING TO CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS A GOOD BET. SOME OF THE COOLER
LOCALES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S AS A RESULT.

BY TOMORROW...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WILL BE LESS WIND WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FLOW IS NORTHWEST AND
DRY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TURNS WEST AND DRY
TUESDAY...AND FINALLY SOUTHWEST AND DRY WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THE
EURO/GFS/DGEX DISAGREE ON WHERE TO PLACE THE CLOSED LOW/TROUGH...THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FEATURES...AND THE DEPTH OF THEM. SOME INDICATION
OF MONSOON-TYPE MOISTURE CREEPING WESTWARD FROM UTAH TOWARD EASTERN
NEVADA IN THE LAYER RH FIELDS. HOWEVER...THE PW FIELDS SHOW SOME
BORDERLINE DECENT VALUES CREEPING ATYPICALLY IN FROM THE WEST IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH PW VALUES NEAR 0.50" OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...MIGHT
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED OR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY INSTABILITY.
PROBLEM IS THAT INSTABILITY IS NON-EXISTENT OR LIMITED TO SPORADIC
AFTERNOONS NEAR THE UTAH LINE. AM RELUCTANT TO PUT HIGH
POPS...MEANING MID 20S TO NEAR 30...IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. HAVE
THEREFORE DECREASED POPS TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS OUT OF THE
LONG RANGE ALTOGETHER.

AS THE FLOW CHANGES TO SOUTHWEST AND TROUGH/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
THE COAST...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOONS. WIND TOOLS PRODUCED PRETTY STRONG WINDS OF AROUND 30
KNOTS EACH DAY OVER LARGE AREAS...BUT HAVE TONED THESE DOWN BY 5-10
KNOTS.

TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...PERHAPS A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN THE MINS LATER
IN THE WEEK SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY...BUT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF KWMC AND
KEKO TAFS. WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT ESPECIALLY SO AT KELY AND KTPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30
KNOTS.

FIRE WEATHER...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO BRING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. IN THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE FIRE DISTRICT...DRY AIR AND WIND WILL COMBINE TO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FIRE ZONES 455 AND 457. THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH NO
IMPACTS BEING FORECAST. BY THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...COULD SEE A
RETURN OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT VERY
CONSISTENT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

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