Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 271026
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
326 AM PDT Thu Apr 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS...An unsettled, cool and wet weather pattern will
continue across northern and central Nevada through the end of
this week. A series of upper level disturbances interacting with
Pacific moisture will produce occasional rain and snow showers
through Friday. Look for conditions to slowly improve over the
.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. KLRX radar shows that most
of the showers that brought substantial rain to parts of northern
Nevada has now moved near highway 50 in central Nevada. There is
still a faint line of showers stretching from Austin to Wendover
with drier and cooler air behind this line. Sites across the north
are dipping into the 30s and dewpoints are approaching the 20s.
It has been raining the past few hours at Ely with temp/dewpoint
at 39/37. Still breezy at Tonopah with gusts in the 30s and with
the front approaching along with the normal northerly drainage
aspect, this will likely continue until daybreak. Model agreement
is pretty good in the short term.
Today through Friday night. With a synoptic low pressure area to
the east and a Pacific ridge expected to expand and strengthen
over the next couple days, the LKN CWFA will be subjected to a
northwest to northerly flow aloft. At this juncture, no heavy
bands of precipitation can be ascertained however surges of
moisture will affect the Great Basin to varying degrees each 12
hour period. Precipitation will be mainly snow and accumulation
will be dependent on whether its day or night. High temperatures
will generally be in the 40s. Low temperatures will generally be
in the 20s.
Saturday. Models are in agreement showing strengthening of the
Pacific high which will extend a ridge pulse eastward over the
Great Basin, at least temporarily helping to dry out the LKN CWFA.
High temperatures will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...Saturday night through next Wednesday
Northwest flow continues through most of the extended period. The
GFS and EC both continue to show a little energy slicing very
northern counties on Sunday, though the GFS no longer indicates
any moisture with this feature. Maintained low pops near the
border, however, with the EC still advertising a bit of moisture.
Otherwise, dry conditions look to be in place through Tuesday
with some afternoon and evening breezes. Valley highs Sunday
through Tuesday will be 55 to 65 degrees with lows mainly in the
Both models also are in agreement on the Eastern Pacific low
finally moving eastward on Wednesday, with the ridge amplified
well into Western Canada. This would knock us out of the Northwest
flow that has been in place and with the ridge over us,
it would push temperatures well into the 70`s. Went conservative
with temperatures this far out to get in a few more model runs for
more confidence in timing.
If the ridge moves through as quickly as the models indicate, an
active weather pattern might quickly return for the very end of
the week or next weekend.
.AVIATION...Showers with MVFR ceilings continue at KELY but these
conditions are expected to diminish by 12Z. Otherwise, high clouds
will be present today and with the recent moisture, cumulus clouds
should develop with daytime heating, though ceilings will remain
VFR at all terminals.
Northwest winds around 15 kts will return
late this morning and continue through the afternoon hours gusting
to around 30 kts at all terminals. Winds at KTPH will increase
around 23Z to 30 kts gusting to 40 kts.
Possible MVFR conditions return for KEKO with -shsn late tonight.
.HYDROLOGY...A cool and unsettled weather pattern will continue
through the end of this week. Some rivers and creeks are running
high and are rising in response to additional precipitation. The
lower stretch of the Humboldt River from Battle Mountain to the
Humboldt/Pershing County line is still experiencing flooding
issues. At Wildhorse Reservoir, water is being released and
flowing over the spillway. As a result, the Owyhee River is
showing a rise. The Bruneau River spiked above flood stage on
Wednesday. Outdoor enthusiasts should watch out for and be
cautious around higher flows.
Here are the locations where flood warnings are currently in
Humboldt River - Battle Mountain: Minor flooding continues.
Humboldt River - Comus, near Winnemucca: Minor to Moderate
Bruneau River - near Rowland: Minor flooding.
All other monitored creeks and rivers are below minor flood stage
at this time, but will likely see rises this week due to an
occasionally wet and unsettled weather pattern. River Statements
have been issued to provide information concerning the following
Wildhorse Dam - at Wildhorse
Owyhee River - at Wildhorse
Owyhee River - near Mountain City
Martin Creek - Paradise Valley
Mary`s River - near Deeth