Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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593
FXUS66 KLOX 221641 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
BE DRY. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS NEXT WEEK...BUT A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA
ALREADY AND NOW WE`RE GETTING NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
IT. A FEW SHOWERS ON RADAR MOVING INTO THE LA/VENTURA MTNS BUT
PRETTY BENIGN. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE DURING THE DAY WITH
SOLID CLOUDS OVER THE MTNS LIMITING ANY HEATING INFLUENCES SO
THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED. MAY GET SOME SPILL OVER SHOWERS INTO THE
VALLEYS TODAY WITH THAT NORTHERLY FLOW BUT JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS SO
LEFT IN LOW POPS THERE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE MTNS. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SPRINKLE OR TWO.

DECREASED SKY COVER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THAT HAS BEEN A
BUST ALL WEEK AND INVERSION SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO BUBBLE UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO PARTLY
CLOUDY A GOOD FORECAST FOR TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

KIND OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN. A RATHER STRONG VORT
LOBE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES AND
EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LOW AND IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH CA SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER AND FARTHER WEST
WITH THE FEATURE. AT THIS TIME...WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED...AT LEAST
FOR THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MTNS SAT NIGHT/SUN
MORNING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUN AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MAY BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MEMORIAL DAY. AFTER A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS. AN UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APCHG THE REGION FROM THE
WEST WILL LIKELY KEEP COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. A BUILDING
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION WED AND
THU...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...MTNS AND
DESERTS...AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL PROBABLY BECOME
LESS WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1210Z...

AT 1210Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION NEAR LAX.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. UPPER LOW WILL BRING
SOME PERIODIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN TAPER
OFF LATER THIS EVENING.  CIGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY MVFR/VFR. VISBYS
COULD LOWER TO IFR BRIEFLY WHERE SHOWERS ARE RELATIVELY STRONG. LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. LIKELY MVFR
ONCE AGAIN IF AND WHERE STRATUS DEVELOPS. INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK
WHICH WILL CAUSE RANDOM LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...BUT HIGHER THAN IFR.
30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS FOR CENTRAL COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

LAX...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF IN RESPECT TO SHOWER CHANCES
TODAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL STICK AROUND
THROUGH TONIGHT.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF IN RESPECT TO SHOWER CHANCES
TODAY. EXPECTING MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...22/900 AM.

OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. LOCAL SCA GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ655
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A 40% CHANCE THAT A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED.

THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION AND ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REFUGIO OIL SPILL
INCIDENT WITH WIND WAVES UP TO 4 FEET. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH
OR EXCEED 25 KNOTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...DB/MW

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