Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 100007 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
507 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. BREEZY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERTS INTO
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY FOR A WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOS
ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY OVER THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY SECTIONS...WITH INTERIOR AREAS FEELING THE COOLING AFFECTS
THE RETREATING RIDGE. STRATUS IS HUGGING MOST COASTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND LOOKS READY FOR AN EVENING PUSH BACK INTO THE COASTS
AND VALLEYS. EXPECTING THE MARINE LAYER TO BE A FEW HUNDRED FEET
DEEPER ON THURSDAY WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE PATTERN.

WITH THE RIDGE RETREATING INTO TEXAS BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY COOL A LITTLE MORE ON
THURSDAY...THEN STAY ABOUT THE SAME FOR FRIDAY. COASTAL AND NEARBY
VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE RANDOM TRENDS AS THEY FOLLOW THE RANDOM
BEHAVIORS OF THE MARINE LAYER. WITH MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS THROUGH FRIDAY...INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD SEE BREEZY BUT
SUB-ADVISORY WESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE NORTHWESTWARD INTO
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN ALONG THE WAY. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER COVERAGE QUITE A BIT...BRINGING
SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO THE REGION...MORE SO THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. TRIPLE DIGITS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WARMEST
MOUNTAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO UTAH/NEVADA ON SUNDAY AND PARK ITSELF THERE
THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING IT THERE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH NOW LOOKING TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AMPLE WARMING IS ON TRACK FOR
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE
WARMER MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH 108 POSSIBLE FOR THE
HOTTEST LOCATIONS. THE WARMEST COASTAL VALLEY WILL ALSO FLIRT WITH
100 DEGREES...WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE TO NO STRATUS.

THE POSITION OF THIS HIGH WILL ALSO BRING A FEW DAYS OF STEADY
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE MOISTURE
CONTENT WITH EACH MODEL RUN...THE LONGEVITY OF THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND HOT TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST ONE DAY OF THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SHOULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS. IT ALSO
SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION RISK WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY...AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO VENTURA COUNTY. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
WITH THIS FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...10/0007Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO
COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH 07Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL THAN FORECAST UP TO ONE HOUR EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
PREDOMINANT LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD INTO COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH 07Z...AND INTO VALLEY
TERMINALS AFTER 05Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN EARLIER ARRIVAL AT
COASTAL TERMINALS...UP TO TWO HOURS EARLIER. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH A CHANCE OF
OF SOME TERMINALS SUCH AS KSBA AND KOXR NOT CLEARING AT ALL.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z...THEN
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO KLAX THROUGH 06Z. A SLIGHTLY LATER
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z...OR AS LATE AS 20Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
05Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE KBUR AREA BETWEEN
05Z AND 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/300 PM.
LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS ZONE 673...AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS AND ENTRANCE OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. A BETTER
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LOOKS TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND AND OUT 60 NM.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO

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