Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 100529
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
929 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ONE LAST DAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HEAT BEFORE A SLOW
BUT STEADY COOLING TREND TAKES HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUE-FRI)

OVERALL...A VERY QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE DISTRICT. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD. OBS
DATABASE INDICATES SOME LINGERING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT AT LEVELS WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUICK LOOK AT INITIAL 00Z MODEL DATA INDICATES NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
CURRENT FORECAST THINKING. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL
TRENDS LOOK TO CONTINUE (WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT/MORNING HOURS
AND WEAK ONSHORE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS). WITH THIS PATTERN...THE
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL LOOK FOR A SLOW
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR ANY WIND
ISSUES...NONE ARE EXPECTED.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...AND
NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)

A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND BRINGS SOME
CLOUDINESS AND A FIVE TO TEN DEGREE DROP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
THE RIDGE REFORMS FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY BUT IT IS NOT AS STRONG.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WELL AND THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO
BEGIN ALMOST AS WARM AS THIS ONE.

NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST THOUGH THERE REMAINS
HOPE FOR A PATTERN SHIFT BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...10/0530Z

AT 0415Z...AT KLAX...THERE WAS MARINE LAYER OF 300 FEET WITH AN
INVERSION TO 900 FEET AT 27 DEG C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU 06Z TAF. EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 7 KTS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...09/830 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS ALL WATERS. ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...SEAS WILL INCREASE AS A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES IN. ADDITIONALLY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. SO...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR
THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDIITONS AS NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE AND LARGE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES IN. FOR
THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...MUNROE/RORKE
MARINE...THOMPSON
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


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