Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 242123
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY
BRINGING COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
A 545 DM LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL SWING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA. WITH THE LOW TAKING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY ALONG ITS PATH...BUT THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO BRING A LITTLE (UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH) RAIN TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
UPPED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF SLO COUNTY
WHERE THE CHANCES ARE GREATEST...AND SPED UP THE TIMING AS THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE ENTERING THE AREA AROUND 6AM SATURDAY. FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO
MANY MOUNTAIN AREAS...AND THE ELEVATED HILLS AND PLAINS OF INTERIOR
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES. LOCALIZED WIND ADVISORY GUSTS (35-45 MPH) ARE
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR IMPACTFUL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WIND ADVISORY. KEEPING THE SATURDAY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR
LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AS HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN. HIGH CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN COOLING
EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY...BUT SANTA YNEZ AND SANTA MARIA MAY STAY
WARM WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE FLOW WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER AROUND OVER
SLO AND SBA COUNTY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY AND
SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS FOR SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL. WITH THE NORTHERLY
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 10C...NOT EXPECTING ANY
MARINE INVERSION OR MARINE LAYER...BUT A FEW RANDOM SMATTERING OF
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LA COUNTY WITH A WEAK EDDY. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING...FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS
AND MOUNTAINS. MORE OF THE SAME ON MONDAY...WITH BREEZY BUT WEAKER
NORTHERLY WINDS AND A TOUCH OF WARMING. THE CENTRAL COAST COULD SEE
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF WARMING HOWEVER WITH DECENT NORTHEAST FLOW.
STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY MARINE LAYER WITH STILL COLDER AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
A WEAK BUT NOTICEABLE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTH. THIS ALL SPELLS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S OVER COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS...ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EVEN AS THE MARINE
INVERSION REFORMS WITH THE RIDGE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY MARINE
LAYER STRATUS THANKS TO THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

AT THIS POINT...EXTENDED MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FAIRLY LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY. WHILE
THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SOLUTIONS...IT SEEMS
LIKE THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR RAIN THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z.
THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT KLAX AT 1700Z WAS NEAR 500 FT. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES C.

LIFT CONDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SCATTER OUT BY 19-20Z
TODAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS THROUGH 00Z. A SOMEWHAT DEEPER MARINE
LAYER WILL BRING LIFR CONDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST FROM 03Z THIS
EVENING INTO SAT MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT LOW
CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDS WILL AFFECT L.A. COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDS FOR KOXR. THERE IS A 20-30% CHC
THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KSBA...KBUR AND KVNY TONIGHT IF THE
MARINE LAYER EXPANDS FURTHER INLAND AND NWWD ALONG THE COAST.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. IFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE BY 08Z...20% CHANCE OF LOWER CIGS OR THAT CIGS WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL 10-12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 20% CHANCE LIFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 PM.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY SUNDAY...AND THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. AT THIS TIME THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. A
GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR TOMORROW FOR THIS EVENT.

HAZARDOUS SEA CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS A LARGER WEST
SWELL COMBINES WITH NORTHWEST WIND SWELL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

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