Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 290011

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
711 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Not a lot of change for the forecast tonight. The upper low
currently over the OH Valley will more or less remain in place.
The sfc cdfnt will continue to push swd with some relaxation of
the sfc pressure gradient across wrn portions of the CWA. This
will allow winds to diminish somewhat this evening with sunset,
but still expect mixing to continue across the region thru
tonight. This shud prevent fog from developing and will limit
radiational cooling. However, with continued CAA tonight, still
expect temps to drop into the 40s across much of the area.


.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Upper level low will continue sit and spin over the Ohio Valley,
maybe even retrograde back to the northwest a bit through the end of
the work week and into the first part of the weekend. So will see
scattered shower activity as shortwaves rotate around upper low,
mainly along and east of Mississippi River. Some weak instability
on Friday afternoon, so added slight chance mention of thunderstorms
in the far eastern portions of forecast area.

With cyclonic flow over region, temperatures to remain a bit below
normal through Saturday. Then upper low finally begins to lift to
the northeast away from region by Saturday night. Temperatures to
moderate as surface flow becomes southerly once again with highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s by Monday.

Beyond that, the next chance for rain will be late in the extended,
Tuesday night and Wednesday, as a strong cold front approaches from
the Central Plains.



.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 711 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

VFR conditions and NW surface winds will prevail at the TAF sites
for much of the valid period. Some MVFR CIGs expected for a period
Thursday morning and into midday over STL metro sites as diurnal
influences take place, but this should lift back into VFR by early
afternoon. Some gusts between 15-20kts anticipated during Thursday
afternoon over many sites.





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