Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 080015
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
715 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD AND EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHEAST MO INTO EASTERN OK AT MID
AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE REGION AT THIS TIME, BUT A BROAD PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. I DON`T ANTICIPATE MAJOR CHANGES INTO THE EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION AND A
BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT. OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THINGS WILL CHANGE AS THE SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY CENTERED THROUGH WESTERN OK LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST. IN
RESPONSE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG IT, AND LOW AND
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND STRENGHTHEN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE
SPREAD AND DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CONTINOUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING STILL APPEARS TO BE THE
PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE OVERALL
SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST
NORTHEAST PROMPTING THE FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD, AND CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING AND BACKING OF THE SOUTHERLY LLJ PRODUCING STRONG
LIFT/MCON ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF A JEFFERSON CITY TO LITCHFIELD AXIS,
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD. HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF, WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
NAM, BUT STILL HAS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN DURING THE EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO INTO IL.
ACCORDINGLY I EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THIS AREA UNTIL
06Z THURSDAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION WHICH CAN OCCUR AS LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE
LOW.

GLASS

.LONG TERM: (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE FRONT WILL SAG BACK INTO SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL BY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND THE
BEST THREAT OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE FINAL HURRAH
WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FINAL
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKS EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS
RESULTING IN THE SAME SEQUENCE OF A MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW AND
LIFTING FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT AND THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL DOMINATE THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE UPPER HIGH/RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. THIS UPPER HIGH CONTINUES
RETROGRADING TO THE WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF
TROFFING IN THE EAST, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR US, AND ANOTHER
FROPA IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

GLASS
&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WITH FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA, MOST TAF SITES REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
KUIN SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT
BEFORE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND CIGS LOWER
TO MVFR. REINTRODUCED RAIN AT KUIN BY 15Z WEDNESDAY. AS FOR SITES
ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR, LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST WITH CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY SO HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION.
OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST AS FRONT BEGINS TO
LIFT NORTH.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
WITH FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA, KSTL TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN. WILL SEE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BY 18Z WEDNESDAY SO HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION FOR
REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST WINDS TO VEER
TO THE EAST AS FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. THEN FRONT TO LIFT
NORTH OF METRO AREA BY 03Z THURSDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
     MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     IRON MO-KNOX MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY
     MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE.
     GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR JEFFERSON MO-
     LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-ST. CHARLES
     MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR RANDOLPH IL.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ADAMS IL-BOND
     IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX


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