Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 250551

1151 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Thanksgiving Night)
Issued at 331 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2015

Surface ridge continues to move eastward bringing increased moisture
into the area with a southerly flow ahead of cold front. ECMWF/NAM
have slowed the movement of the front which lowers the precip
chances on Wednesday. Rain chances increase from Wednesday night
into Thanksgiving evening, especially in the northwest corner of the
region as the front progresses toward the area. Temps for the
forecast period increase as southerly winds continue.


.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2015

Behind the cold front...temperatures will cool back to near normal
during the day and slightly above normal at night. Unsettled
conditions with a mostly cloudy to overcast sky and at least small
chances of light rain each forecast period. Best chance of
widespread rain looks to be early on Friday but likely PoPs continue
for portions of southeastern Missouri and southwest Illinois through
Saturday night as a sfc low travels northeastward roughly along the
Ohio River.

Some chance of rain however will remain at least for portions of the
area all the way into Tuesday as broad southwest mid/upper level
flow continue over the mid-Mississippi Valley. Closed upper-level
low looks to finally move into the Great Lakes by Tuesday with a
cold front moving through the area Monday night/Tuesday. Behind this
front...drier weather should move into the area.

As for potential of frozen or freezing precipiation for this weekend
and early next appears sfc temps will remain above
freezing areawide even at night with just plain rain far and away
the most likely precipitation type. If strength of cold airmass is
underdone however...freezing rain would occur if sfc temps dipped
below freezing across portions of northeast Missouri and west-
central Illinois.



.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2015

VFR cloudiness (with bases aoa 4kft) has pushed across western MO
a bit faster than anticipated earlier, and should overspread most
of the TAF sites in the LSX CWA in the 07-12z time frame. Latest
00z guidance doesn`t really indicate a signficant and/or
persistent lowering of the cloud bases during the day and into
tomorrow evening, so for the most part have held bases in the
3-5kft range throughout 06z/26. The exception is at KCOU, where moisture
profile hints at a brief dip into MVFR cigs during the late

In addition...low level winds still appear to be on the increase,
so no major changes to LLWS as indicated in current TAFs.

Specifics for KSTL: Only a bit of mid level cloudiness until
daybreak, when VFR cigs around 5kft push into the area. This cloud
deck will likely persist for much of the day on Wednesday, and
into Wednesday evening. LLWS potential through mid morning still
looks appropriate as winds just off the surface are continuing to





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