Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 281751
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
151 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO
THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANCHORING OFF THE COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...WEAK ANA-COLD FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM CNTRL VA TO NC
AND IS DRIFTING SOUTH. AN ASSOCIATED CU FIELD IS ACROSS
CHARLOTTESVILLE AND SOUTH. EXPECT NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 18 MPH REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO
BERMUDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NLY FLOW WILL BECOME NELY FRIDAY
MORNING AND BECOME ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED AS
DRY AIR SETTLES IN. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A RESULT
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE HEADS OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AIDED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-95. PVA
AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH BRINGS LIKELY POPS PIEDMONT AND WEST
(HIGH CHANCES EAST) FOR SUNDAY. GULF MOISTURE PLUME OF 2 INCH PWATS
AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES OR TRAINING STORMS WOULD CAUSE FLOOD
CONCERNS. INCREASED QPF FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER WORDING IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS ANCHORED TO THE EAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES OFF THE SE COAST. DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
SET UP AS WELL LEADING TO A MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
SETUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
AND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LEADING
TO DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NWLY/NLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. VFR INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MOVES ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SLY SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THEN AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SUNDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS THE
HOT/HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES.


&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NWLY/NLY FLOW REST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAINLY 15-17KT WITH
SOME STRAY 18-19KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS SLACKING...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS OF
THIS TIME.

NLY FLOW TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NRN
MID-ATLANTIC...THEN ONSHORE TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. SLY RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER A
WARM FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS THE HOT/HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BAJ
MARINE...BAJ





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