Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KLWX 251339
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
939 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOSED INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AND
CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY AFTERNOON AND USHER IN HIGHER DEWPTS.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND AFTER A CHILLY MORNING AND REACH THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATER THIS EVE...THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ON THE
NW DOORSTEP...SLIDING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE UPON
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APLCNS W/ LITTLE MORE THAN SOME LEFTOVER
MID CLOUDS TO MAKE IT PAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MODERATE OVERNIGHT...AS DEWPOINTS ONLY DROP INTO THE M-U40S SO
TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE U40S/L50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DRY COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...THE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SWEPT OFF TO THE
EAST AND REPLACED BY NOTICEABLY COLDER/DRIER AIR. SOLID NW WINDS
WILL BE THE REASON...AS THE DEEP UPPER PARENT LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST...THE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND IT WILL
SWEEP THE AVERAGE CONDITIONS AND REPLACE IT W/ A DRY AND WINDY DAY.
DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...SFC TEMPS WILL STILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
U60S AND A FEW L70S. NW WINDS AROUND 20MPH AND LOW RH`S MAY LEAD
TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS
OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. QUIET HIGH PRES TODAY W/ JUST
A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SW WIND THIS AFTN. WINDS AGAIN
BECOME THE CONCERN SUNDAY...AS SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REACH THE
15-25KT RANGE RANGE - LOCALLY HIGHER. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER-IN
THIS NEW WINDY DAY EARLY SUN...W/ GUSTS CONTAINING UNTIL LATER THIS
EVE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT W-SW WINDS 5-10KT THIS AFTN. A
QUICK- MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER WINDY
DAY ON SUNDAY. A SCA UP FOR ALL THE WATERS STARTING JUST A COUPLE
OF HRS AFT SUNRISE AND LASTING THRU THE EVE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SWLY BY AFTERNOON...CBOFS HAS
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FCST IS FOR
ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL NOT ACT ON
THIS RIGHT NOW SINCE THE WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD KEEP ANOMALIES
FROM RISING QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME ANOMALIES ARE AROUND A HALF FOOT
AT ANNAPOLIS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.