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000
FXUS64 KLZK 091809
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1209 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.AVIATION...
THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT PREVAILING WILL BE
MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW JUST OVER THE MISSOURI BORDER.
KEPT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT KHRO FOR A FEW HOURS. CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WILL SEE NOTHING BUT CLOUDS...WITH THE SOUTHEAST
TERMINALS RECEIVING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFTER 00Z. BY 12Z
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SKY COVERING
SCATTERING OUT THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS ARE QUITE EXPANSIVE THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL
CLEARING LINE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS BUT ANY IMPROVEMENT
WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIMITED TO KHOT AND KADF...SO EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL
PASS BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD SOME LIGHT RAIN AT KLLQ AND
POSSIBLY KPBF...AND ALSO POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW AT KHRO.
INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR -SN AT KHRO...AND VCSH WITH TEMPO -RA AT
KLLQ.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

THE HIGH WILL BRING PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY...WITH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IN ARKANSAS. WITH A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT RESPOND ALL THAT MUCH...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

HEADING INTO THIS EVENING...A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONT.
IT APPEARS THAT A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. SOME OF THIS
SNOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES IN
ARKANSAS...WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THERE IS LITTLE/NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY BY...WITH ALL PRECIPITATION ENDING
BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY...WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL SLOWLY MODIFY...BUT WILL REMAIN SUBPAR.

AS THE PERIOD ENDS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART...WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW EVOLVING. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GO UP...WITH
CLOUDS COMING BACK. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. AS IT APPROACHES ARKANSAS FROM THE
WEST...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE COLD AT THE SURFACE AND EXPECT
THAT...INITIALLY...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL
WINDS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN STATEWIDE BY MID
TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...LINGERING WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE COMING TO AN END.
FALLING TEMPS FRI NIGHT COULD ALSO BRING A RETURN OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA...PRECIP WILL HAVE WOUND DOWN...AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
AMPLIFY A BIT AS A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE
SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO ARKANSAS.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS HIGH WILL NOT PROVIDE A
STRONG SHOT OF COLD AIR BUT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  21  33  19 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         42  30  39  25 /  10  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       29  17  32  18 /  10  40   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    36  27  37  23 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  25  36  22 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     41  30  39  25 /  10  30  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      35  23  37  22 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  18  31  18 /  10  40   0   0
NEWPORT AR        32  22  34  20 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     37  27  38  24 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   33  24  35  20 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         33  23  35  21 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      35  27  36  23 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62