Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 291757
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1257 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SENDING A QUICK GRID AND ZONE UPDATE...AS A FEW SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AREAS
WHERE NO POPS WERE PRESENT. LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN
A NUMBER OF AREAS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...SO HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST AT THIS MOMENT. 53

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC
WIND FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER...BECOMING NELY LATE.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES ALOFT RMNS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH EARLY THIS
MRNG. EXEPCT PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF CONDS EXPERIENCED ON TUE OVR AR
TODAY AS UPR RDG PERSISTS...PRODUCING YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
FOR AR. HEAT ADVYS/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS RMN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA TODAY AND NO CHGS WERE MADE TO HEADLINES. HIGHS TODAY WL AGAIN
BE IN THE 90S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NATION WL BCM MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
COMING DAYS AT THE UPR RDG SHIFTS WWD...WITH A RESULTING UPR TROF
OVR THE ERN STATES. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE MID SOUTH
WL ALLOW A CDFNT TO DROP SWD THRU AR LATER TODAY AND TNGT. LIFT
ASSOCD WITH THE FNT WL BE LIMITED...SO WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE
NOTED WITH THE FROPA THRU TNGT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL BE IN THE VCNTY OF SRN AR ON THU...WITH
LINGERING RAIN CHCS MENTIONED. MUCH DRIER AIR WL BE FILTERING SWD
INTO AR BEHIND THE FNT THU AND FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST LOCATIONS WL
SEE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SFC HIGH PRES WL PERSIST
THRU SAT. THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL BRING A WEAK FNTL BNDRY INTO NRN AR
LATE SAT/SAT NGT WITH LTL IMPACT EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     73  91  69  92 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         75  97  72  95 /  20  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       70  88  69  89 /  20  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  95  72  94 /  20  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  77  93  72  94 /  20  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     77  97  72  93 /  20  30  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  94  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  89  68  91 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        73  91  69  93 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     75  94  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  93  71  94 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         74  92  69  93 /  20  20   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  92  70  93 /  20  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$


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