Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 032315 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
615 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

THE VERY ISOLATED SHRA ONGOING EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD BE SEEN...BUT DOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. FRI SHOULD ALSO REMAIN VFR...AND DO THINK THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EVEN LESS THAN SEEN TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE REMAIN CHANCES OF CONVECTION
IN THE AFTERNOONS TO EVENINGS EACH DAY...THEN A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FORECAST. ALSO WILD FIRE DANGER
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR REMAINS MODERATE AND A FEW
BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT. WITH THE LACK OF RAIN AND HOT
TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL ADD TO THE RISK.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE A
GOOD CU FIELD WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. EVEN WITH NEGATIVE
FACTORS HOLDING DOWN CONVECTION POTENTIAL...MORE POSITIVE FACTORS
ARE PRESENT. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LOW AND ISOLATED THIS
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT IN MORE OVER
THE REGION AND THIS WILL BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WHILE MOISTURE LEVELS
HAVE COME UP WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WILL HOLD THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE EARLY EVENING
PERIOD...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF FOG...BUT IF
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY...WOULD NEEDED TO ADD
SOME IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAD RAIN. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY....AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE
SLIGHT TO LOW....AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION A BIT
MORE. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY CONVECTION AT THIS TIME...AS TEMPS
WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OF TWO. ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE MORE BACK TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL AGAIN
PROMPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SUNDAY WEATHER WILL BE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SCENARIO.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS NOT EXACTLY
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN PLAYERS DISAGREEING ON THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE TREND IN GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RISING PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
IN THE WED/THU TIME FRAME. THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND
WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
EJECT FROM THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THESE WILL EVENTUALLY DRIVE A FRONT
INTO THE STATE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NOW. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SEEN WED/THU AS THE FRONT NEARS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S WILL BE SEEN...BUT EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S ON
THURSDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  93  71  93 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         72  95  73  96 /  20  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       68  91  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  94  73  93 /  20  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  95  73  95 /  20  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     72  96  73  95 /  20  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      69  93  71  92 /  20  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  92  69  91 /  10  10  10  20
NEWPORT AR        70  93  71  93 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  95  72  95 /  20  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  94  71  93 /  20  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         70  95  71  94 /  20  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      71  95  72  94 /  20  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62


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