Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 172335 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
535 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Expect some improvement in conditions this evening, as high
pressure passes by to the north of Arkansas. This will be short-
lived, however, as low level moisture increases significantly
during the morning on Sunday. By late in the day, all areas should
be MVFR or lower again, with showers possible in the far south.
Low level wind shear will develop during the morning from
FL015-020, with southeast to south winds at sustained speeds of
30-40 knots.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 308 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018)
Short Term...Tonight through Monday
Data from KLZK radar indicate scattered light rainfall, moving
east across southeast sections of the forecast area. This activity
is expected to clear the forecast area by 00z. With a weak near
surface flow, and clearing conditions, expect scattered areas of
fog development overnight.

Some amplification of the overall upper flow across the U.S.
during this period. Southerly low level flow will develop early in
this period, and will promote isentropic lift and moisture
transport to the region. Overall, precipitation amounts will be
light during this period, with more substantial precipitation
expected later in the week.

Long Term...Tuesday through Saturday
The extended period and beyond looks very unsettled. It will
feature a battle between colder than average conditions over
northern/western sections of the country colliding with much
warmer than average air over the southeast. Between the two air
masses, fronts will be the focus for heavy/excessive rain, with
moisture provided by a persistent south/southwest wind flow aloft.

Once such front will approach from the north as the period begins.
Shallow cold air will be found behind the front, and the front will
be mostly parallel to the upper flow. Given this, the front will be
in no rush to push through the region.

Areas of rain will develop, and it will be heavy at times. Scattered
thunderstorms will pop up as well. The swath of precipitation will
slowly work to the southeast with the front through Wednesday, with
the front finally coming to a halt along the Gulf Coast by sometime

The front will be followed by a large area of high pressure. As the
high exits to the east late in the week, the front will lift back to
the north, and will bring another round of rain.

There could be a little wintry precipitation late Wednesday
night/early Thursday as temperatures bottom out just below
freezing in northern Arkansas. A period of light freezing rain
will be possible.

As far as rainfall, three to five inch amounts are in the forecast
by the end of period. There could be locally more than half a foot.
Flood/flash flood issues will depend on where the heaviest rain
falls. If the event is mainly over the north/west where it has been
dry for awhile, issues would not be as significant as farther
south/east where it has been very wet. This situation will be
monitored closely.

Temperatures will waver through the period. It will be a mild start,
with closer to seasonal readings as the front sags through the area.
Late in the week, it will be mild again as the front lifts toward
the Missouri border.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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