Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 290546 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ONLY PATCHY
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT
AS WELL AS VFR CEILINGS LOWERING FROM WEST TO CENTRAL. AN AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER OK WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN...WHILE SOME
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO WESTERN AREAS OF AR AROUND 10Z
TO 15Z. MVFR CEILINGS WITH FOG WILL DEVELOP EARLY MORNING FRIDAY
NEAR ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NE TO SE OR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. FRIDAY MORNING THE AREAS OF MVFR WILL GRADUALLY THIN
BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT. THE MORNING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING...THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...MORE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15
MPH. (59)

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

NOT A LOT OF APPRECIABLE CHANGES WILL BE FORTHCOMING THIS AFTERNOON
AS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE. WITH ALL SHORT TERM MODELS BASICALLY ON THE SAME PAGE...A
BLEND OF FORECAST SIMULATIONS WILL BE USED.

UPPER PATTERN STILL FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCING ONLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN WILL KEEP DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA WHILE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES THE ENTIRE AREA. SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE.

WETTEST PERIOD WILL BE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
SURGES INTO THE STATE...ACCOMPANIED BY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. WILL TAPER OFF POPS LATE IN
PERIOD AS SYSTEM PULLS OUT. AFTER ONE MORE WARM DAY ON
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WILL
FOLLOW THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS CLOSELY.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE PROMINENT
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER THE
ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA REGION ON MONDAY...THEN MEANDER OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH SUCH A FEATURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY THOUGH HOW WIDESPREAD THEY
WILL BE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WILL LIMIT THE FORECAST TO ABOUT A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT NIGHT...THOUGH SOME NIGHTTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. TEMPERATURE
WISE...READINGS WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START
WITH MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
&&

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$












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