Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 311519 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1019 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016


Did not make any wholesale changes to the going forecast with this
morning update. Lowered rain chances a bit this morning across the
entire forecast area based on current radar trends and expected
convective development late this morning and into the early
afternoon hours. Right now there is a dearth of returns on radar
save a few isolated showers from just south of the Little Rock
metro up to around Mountain View. Isolated convection will
continue to be the case in the eastern half of the forecast area
through early afternoon and the updated rain chances reflect this.

Also made some updates to expected high temps today...trending
towards the HRRR which shows warmer temperatures in areas that
currently have significantly less cloud cover. This would
generally be in the southern and western parts of the forecast




Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...


Some SHRA/TSRA is ongoing across portions of the area this
morning...which may effect some terminals. This activity will
gradually shift NE during the morning hrs...but chances for
SHRA/TSRA will remain in the forecast. As a result...keep
VCTS/VCSH mentioned pretty much through the entire period. Some
MVFR or lower conditions will be possible...especially under the
convective activity. TAFs out shortly.


SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

Some SHRA/TSRA is ongoing across SRN and SERN sections of the CWA
early this morning...activity continuing along the base of a weak
upper level shortwave moving over the state. Expect this
convective activity to continue to lift slowly ENE through the
rest of the morning...with best pops forecast for the SERN third
to half of the CWA. Do think there will be a lull in the
scattered/widespread activity across portions of the CWA this
afternoon...with more isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA
developing in the afternoon heat as the upper shortwave will have
moved east of the area. As a result...have slightly lower pops for
this afternoon.

By later today into the overnight period...flow aloft will become
morepersistently from the SW...with additional upper
disturbances lifting NE over the state. AS a increase
pops across the CWA...especially for WRN sections. This trend will
continue through Wed into Wed night as a cold front slowly
approaches from the NW. Looks like best pops beyond this
morning...will be Wed afternoon and evening.

As for SVR WX potential...high levels of instability will be seen
during the afternoon hrs each day...but overall synoptic scale
forcing will be limited. As a result...the threat for SVR WX will
be isolated in nature. Given a bit more coverage expected for Wed
into Wed night...there could be more potential for SVR WX to wrap
up the short term period. Expect large hail and damaging winds as
the primary threats with the strongest storms. Some locally heavy
rainfall could also be seen.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday

Frontal boundary approaching form the NW will become stalled over
the region by the weekend. At the same time, persistent cutoff
upper low will remain in the vicinity of east Texas. These systems
will keep a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms over the

By the latter part of the weekend, ridging over the gulf will relax a
bit, allowing the upper low to sink southward, and in turn the
frontal boundary will move further south, with rain chances

Through the long term periods, the threat of any severe
thunderstorms is low, due to much of the area being on the cool side
of the front. Stronger storms, however, could produce localize heavy
rainfall. However, this threat is not expected to be widespread

Below average temperatures will persist through the period, with the
expected cloud cover and rainfall.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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