Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 250257 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
957 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS ENDED FOR THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS MAY
REDEVELOP AS UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE
THUNDER. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN THE
SAME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS AR THIS EVENING AND DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED TEMPO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES. ONLY VCSH OR VCTS FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
MOVE OUT OF AR BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME VFR OVERNIGHT OVER ALL TAFS...WITH PATCH MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE AT CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TAFS. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THEN BEHIND THE FRONT AT W TO NW
AT 5 TO 15 WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVED ACRS MUCH OF THE FA DURG THE MRNG
AND AFTN HRS. LOW LVL RH HAD CONTD TO RETURN IN EARNEST ACRS THE
REGION THIS AFTN THANKS TO INCRSG SLY WINDS. SFC DEWPOINT READINGS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S ACRS THE AREA.

MEANWHILE...FOCUS THRU THIS EVENING WL BE WITH ONGOING CONVECTION
ACRS CNTRL AR AND THE LINE OF STORMS TO THE W ALONG THE CDFNT. THE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FNT WL EVENTUALLY AFFECT MUCH OF THE FA INTO THIS
EVENING. KEPT A MENTION OF SVR STORMS IN THE FCST AS DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WL RMN POSSIBLE. SVR TSTM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY WL EXIT ERN AR LATER THIS EVENING...
WITH RAIN CHCS ENDING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE MID SOUTH. HIGH
PRES WL BLD INTO THE AREA FOR FRI AND SAT...OFFERING A BRIEF BREAK
IN THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN.

THE NEXT STORM SYS WL IMPACT THE NATURAL STATE STARTING SUN AND
CONTG INTO THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THIS SYS WL BE MUCH STRONGER
AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO EXIST. THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYS WL CONT TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE INFLUENCED PRIMARILY BY AN UPPER
CLOSED LOW WOBBLING AROUND THE REGION. AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM...THIS UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NW OF THE STATE
OVER NE AND SD...WITH AR REMAINING IN INTENSE SW FLOW ALOFT. MUCH OF
STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN DEEP SRLY FLOW...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE. AS A RESULT...ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ON MON
INTO MON NIGHT. WHERE THE BEST POPS WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...AND WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON WHERE THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE BEST POPS ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MON...THEN DECREASING MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST AND EVEN NE OF THE STATE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...DO NOT REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY AS THE UPPER LOW
WOBBLES TO THE NORTH...AND ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES DROP SOUTH OVER
THE STATE. THIS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHRA TO THE STATE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

58




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