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000
FXUS64 KLZK 171137 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
637 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

SHRA/TSRA is starting to clear out across the NRN terminals this
morning...while central terminals are seeing ongoing convection
at this time. THe SERN terminals will see the convective potential
a bit later...and potentially less organized or widespread over
time...especially by this afternoon. Some MVFR CIGs will continue
this morning...with temporary lower flight rules under the
precip. Expect VFR conditions by this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 232 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

A line of SHRA and some TSRA stretch from ERN OK into portions of
WRN AR...then NE into north central and NERN AR this morning as new
convection continues to develop along and just behind a SWD moving
outflow boundary. Will continue to see convection persist and
develop along/behind this outflow as it continues to drop south this
morning. Best POPs will transition into central sections of the
state by sunrise...then later in the morning further south. Coverage
may decrease over time however.

There may be a break in the convection late in the morning...with
redevelopment possible this afternoon across SRN portions of the
CWA...with maybe some isolated development a bit further north. NRN
sections of the state should become dry by this afternoon as drier
more stable air filters in from the north. The primary threats with
this convection will be mainly some locally heavy rainfall...with
the best potential for seeing the heaviest rainfall across WRN
sections of the area through this morning. Otherwise...some gusty
winds could also be seen.

Overnight tonight...precip chances should be fairly low...with maybe
some lingering SHRA/TSRA possible over the far south/SE. For Fri...a
new upper level shortwave will drop SE towards WRN/NWRN AR...with
some increase rain chances expected for the WRN and NWRN counties.
Another wave of convection may also develop late in the short term
period in this same region...with again best POPs expected across
the WRN counties. May also see some potential for locally heavy
rainfall in the WRN counties...especially by late in the short term
period. However...given the overall QPF amounts generally less than
2 inches through 12Z Sat...a Flash Flood watch doesn`t look
warranted at this time. Even so...an isolated flash flood threat may
exist.

Heat index values will be highest across the central and SRN
sections of the CWA both days...though will remain below 105
degrees. As a result...a heat adv will not be needed at this time.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

Ridging will be centered to the south or southwest during the
long term periods. Surface frontal boundary will remain quasi-
stationary or oscillate back and forth near the region, as upper
flow will be quasi-zonal.

Southerly winds will keep low level moisture fairly high, and
disturbances moving through in the mean flow will interact with the
high humidity and daytime heating and will allow for a continued,
largely diurnally-driven chance of showers and thunderstorms.

By mid-week, ridge will start to retrograde to the west, which will
send a cold front into the state, increasing the chance of showers
and thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain close to average.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...62