Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 221204

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
604 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018


Updated for 12z TAF discussion


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/


A loosely organized line of showers and thunderstorms is moving
quickly across the Midsouth. Movement is toward the East at around
35 mph. Observations across central and East Arkansas have
reported sustained wind speeds generally 15 to 25 mph with gusts
around 25 mph...although Little Rock did report a 53mph gust.
Storms are moving into a less favorable environment and also
outrunning their upper level support so a gradual weakening trend
is expected as the line moves across the Midsouth. We do not
expect to see wind gusts over about 35 mph wth sustained speeds 25
mph or less. The line should move into the Memphis Metropolitan
area around 4:30 this morning...hopefully rain will end before the
morning rush hour. The line should move into Middle Tennessee and
North Alabama around 8-9 am. Rainfall totals will likely range
from around one quarter to three quarters of an inch.

We should have a fairly uneventful work week ahead as far as the
weather is concerned. Temperatures will be seasonably warm today,
in the 60s with highs mainly in the 50s tomorrow through Friday.
No rain is expected until late Friday at the earliest.
Saturday looks wet as a cold front moves across the region. Highs
will approach 60 degrees ahead of the front with highs in the 40s



12 TAFs

FROPA currently ongoing through the region, expecting rapidly
improving conditions today. MVFR to IFR cigs will become VFR by
14z at MEM and MKL, and by 18z for TUP. Low level stratus in
association with an upper-level low may move back into the
Midsouth towards the end of the period. This stratus looks to be
based around 3000-4000 ft, with the best chance at JBR. Lower
confidence at MEM and MKL as the leading edge of the stratus will
be approaching these locations.




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