Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 311154
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
654 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS AR AND MS TODAY WHILE
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRATIFORM LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TAPERING OFF TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NW. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUN. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR JULY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO
THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIP AGAIN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO DRIER AND MORE TYPICAL WARM SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN WITH HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS KJBR AND KMEM THIS
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDS. OTRW EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AT KMKL...KJBR AND KTUP.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








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