Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 232334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
634 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017


Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

UPDATE...Evening Update.


Updated to remove pops near the Tennessee River and adjust
temperatures a bit. It should be a cool and dry night under clear
skies. Temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 40s. Near
to slightly below normal temperatures are expected for the next
few days with well below normal temperatures next weekend.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...Water Vapor Satellite trends place an upper level
low over Southern Indiana this afternoon. Sunny to mostly sunny
skies have returned to the forecast area as low clouds have
pushed east of the Tennessee River. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures
across the Mid-South are in the 60s at most locations.

A secondary cold front located from Northeast Missouri back
through Southwest Missouri and into Oklahoma is expected to drop
into the Lower Mississippi tonight. This will result in northwest
winds becoming gusty at times behind the front. Lows tonight will
drop back into the 40s with highs on Tuesday in the 60s.

A combination of relatively light winds, clear skies, and
temperatures falling back into the upper 30s especially along the
favored locations of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River, and
near the MO/KY border may result in the development of some
patchy frost late Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Long term models continue to indicate a deep upper level trough
moving through the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valleys Friday into Friday night. This will result in
a strong cold front moving through the region on Friday. Some
timing differences remain between the slightly slower ECMWF and
quicker GFS solutions. Nonetheless, it appears most of the
precipitation will be occurring behind the front with instability
remaining too low to mention thunder at this time. Much cooler
air behind this front will bring the coolest air of the season to
the Mid-South with highs over the weekend in the 50s and lows
Saturday night in the 30s, and perhaps approaching freezing in a
few locations. Consequently, Frost/Freeze headlines may become
necessary for Saturday night if current model trends persist.



00Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Winds
will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 knots this evening then
shift to the west at 5 to 10 knots late tonight. Winds will be
from the northwest on Tuesday and increase to around 15 knots with
higher gusts.




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