Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 301406
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
906 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016
Updated for adjustment in morning cloud cover and temperatures.
Made slight adjustments in the morning forecast for portions of
north Mississippi and eastern Arkansas where more sun has allowed
temperatures to warm faster than expected. Otherwise the remaining
forecast for the region is currently on track.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 545 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/
DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/
A large upper level low pressure system has been nearly
stationary over the Ohio River valley the past two days, after
dropping south from the Great Lakes earlier this week. This
feature will move little today, but begin a return to the north
over the weekend. As this system departs, a upper level ridge over
the plains will edge east into the MS River valley, returning
above normal temperatures to the Midsouth by Sunday.
The warm temps will continue early next week, as the upper ridge
axis translates to a lower MS River valley/Great Lakes position by
Tuesday. To our west, a deep upper low over the Rockies will eject
into the Plains by Tuesday night. Downstream height falls will
occur over the Midsouth, with a tightening low level pressure
gradient and strengthening onshore flow during the midweek.
As the upper low lifts into the northern Plains/upper MS River
valley, an associated trof axis and surface cold front will lift
through the Midsouth on Thursday. Prefrontal precipitable water
values will not be especially high, around 1 to 1.25 inches, but
sufficient to support a few showers and thunderstorms with a
daytime frontal passage.
The latter half of next week and following weekend will likely
see little to no rainfall and a continuation of above normal
temps, under a broad low amplitude upper level height ridge.
12Z TAF Set
Stratus associated with the upper low continues to move through
the Mid-South. Brief MVFR CIGS may affect KJBR, KMEM, and KTUP
through 15Z. Thereafter, conditions will return to VFR. Meanwhile,
KMKL is likely seeing IFR conditions based on surrounding obs.
Expect conditions to improve to MVFR later this morning and then
eventually return to VFR. Some showers from the upper low may be
in the vicinity of KMKL this afternoon thus have added VCSH
wording. NNW winds of 8-10 KTs expected through early evening.
Thereafter, speeds will decrease to 3 KTs or less.