Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 251501
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...CLOUD DECK OVER THE WEST SIDE LOOKS TO BE DISSIPATING
MUCH FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
COLD POOLS IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEY AD INDICATING HIGHS IN THE MID
40S ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT THE MET GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH
CURRENT HIGHS. THIS...COMPARED WITH THE HIGH YESTERDAY IN SPITE OF
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER LEADS ME TO LEAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY WHERE THEY ARE. CU IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOPE IN SISKIYOU
AND MODOC COUNTY WHERE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING STRONGEST
INSTABILITY AND THETA E CONVERGANCE...CONFIRMING THAT AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT FEELING AS CONFIDENT FOR ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES AND HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS NORTH OF
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CASCADES. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
THIS MORNING, AND THUS THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY OVER
MOST OF OUR AREA TODAY. STRATUS HAS MOVED ONTO MOST OF THE COAST AND
IS BEGINNING TO BANK UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE CASCADE
CREST. GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER THE WEST SIDE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN BURN BACK TO THE COAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING A
LITTLE COOLING ALOFT AND RESULT IN A BIT MORE INSTABILITY ON THE
EAST SIDE AND CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GREATER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AGAIN ON TUESDAY,
BUT WITH A BIT LESS INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE.

AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE INLAND LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
RELATIVELY HOT WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BE SUPPRESSED. BUT WHEN THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WE GET INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST, MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING.VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS.  THEN AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. FOR INLAND AREAS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND
THE UMPQUA AND ROGUE VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PDT MONDAY 25 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR CAPE BLANCO SOUTH. HOWEVER STEEP SEAS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, EXPECT AREAS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$


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