Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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FXUS66 KMFR 010300
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...01/00Z NAM in.

Fair skies prevail across the Medford CWA this evening with high
clouds streaming through. There is also some dissipating cumulus
over the ridges.

The upper level ridge that brought the dry and warm weather is now
breaking to the east of the area and a short wave ejected from an
upstream trough will move onshore to the north later tonight. This
will have a minimal effect this far south...the north coast may
get some low clouds and fog out of it. Elsewhere...expect the
mostly clear conditions to continue through Wednesday morning.

Clouds will increase along the coast Wednesday as the marine
inversion strengthens...and the models continue to place some
convective feedback near Mount Shasta Wednesday afternoon and
evening. There is nothing upstairs to support this...but there
will be some low level convergence there that may support some
activity. The remainder of the area will remain mostly clear with
inland high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal.

The next short wave will move onshore Wednesday night...and this
one will have a more southerly trajectory. The north coast may see
some drizzle or light rain as it moves in...and the clouds will
spread into the Umpqua Basin. In response to the marine
push...Thursday highs inland will be a few degrees cooler than
Wednesday.

A ridge will build in Thursday night into Friday...and this will
warm the area back up. There will be some marine clouds along the
coast...but the remainder of the area will remain mostly clear.
Inland highs Friday will be 15-20 degrees above normal. Saturday
will be even hotter with inland highs 20-25 degrees above normal.
Medford may hit the 100 degree mark.

Long Term Discussion from the Tuesday afternoon AFD...Saturday
Morning, June 4th Through Tuesday, June 7th... We expect record
high temperatures to be broken at most locations, on or about
Saturday and, possibly, Sunday. The GFS based guidance indicates
hotter conditions Sunday than Saturday, whereas the more favored
ECMWF does the opposite. On Sunday, thunderstorms will be possible
from about the Cascades and Siskiyous south and eastward. This
threat will continue on Monday, possibly drifting a bit westward,
but the bulk of the thunderstorm activity appears as if it will
remain cascades and siskiyous south and eastward as of now. Model
guidance does not show sufficient wind to bring thunderstorms to
the west side, currently. Thereafter, the thunderstorm threat is
expected to do its normal drift eastward with time. By Sunday we
expect that fuel conditions will yield some concerns for new fire
starts, but will be checking in with fire agencies to see how much
of a concern that is as time gets closer and forecast details
likely become clearer. -BTL

&&

.AVIATION...For the 01/00Z TAF cycle...Just some high clouds are
expected for most locations over the next 24 hours. Coastal areas
from Reedsport to Cape Blanco are likely to see some IFR to MVFR
stratus overnight into the morning in the 06z-18Z time
frame...but conditions will improve to VFR by mid-late morning.
Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 2 PM PDT Tue 31 May 2016...Offshore high
pressure and a thermal trough along the coast will continue to
produce gusty north winds this week with short period wind waves and
fresh swell continuing to dominate the waters. Winds will be
strongest and seas will be highest beyond 3 nautical miles from
shore south of Cape Blanco. Winds will trend lower Wednesday night
and then will be at a minimum on Thursday. North winds are likely to
increase again Friday into the weekend. Spilde

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 245 PM PDT Tue 31 May 2016...We will
begin our full suite of fire season products beginning tomorrow,
June 1st. June will begin with a heat wave, which is a few days
ahead of record heat that was observed in early June just last
year. Currently, however, we expect records to be broken on just
one day at most locations...probably on or about Saturday for
most sites. There will be a slight threat of thunderstorms from
the Trinity Alps east-northeast to the Modoc Plateau tomorrow
afternoon/evening. Otherwise, we`ll be in the heat until Sunday,
when thunderstorms will be possible from about the Cascades and
Siskiyous south and eastward. This threat will continue on Monday,
possibly drifting a bit westward, but the bulk of the thunderstorm
activity appears as if it will remain Cascades and Siskiyous
south and eastward as of now. Thereafter the thunderstorm threat
is expected to do its normal drift eastward with time. By Sunday
we expect that fuel conditions will yield some concerns for new
fire starts, but will be checking in with fire agencies to see how
much of a concern that is as time gets closer and forecast details
likely become clearer. -BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday
        for PZZ356-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 AM PDT Thursday
        for PZZ356-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 AM PDT Wednesday
        for PZZ350-370.

$$

15/15/15



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