Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 141219
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
417 AM PST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS
MORNING. THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE CASCADES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE ONLY SHOWN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH SO FAR. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE COAST AND
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS RECEIVING BETWEEN A TENTH AND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8000 FEET
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN WITH ONLY SNOW AT THE VERY HIGH
ELEVATION. THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN THIS
MORNING BUT RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS QUICKLY BY LATE
MORNING WITH THE CASCADES AND THE COAST SEEING PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE
BOARD TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

ASIDE FROM LATE NIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE VALLEYS CONDITIONS
WILL BE MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. HIGHS WILL
BE ABOVE SEASON NORMS BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS IN THE
PREVIOUS EPISODES A WEEK EARLIER.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE STILL CONSISTENT AT WEAKENING THIS
RIDGE AND SHIFTING IT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS
TO A MORE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WEST. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING THE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 3500-4000 FEET SO THERE IS AN
OPPORTUNITY TO ADD MORE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 14/12Z TAF CYCLE...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH DETERIORATING CIG/VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM THE UMPQUA BASIN TO THE COAST RANGE AND COAST WILL DETERIORATE
TO IFR THROUGH THE MORNING WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
BECOMING TOTAL. INLAND WEST SIDE AREAS AND THE CASCADES WILL
EXPERIENCE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS INCREASING TO TOTAL THROUGH
THE MORNING, WITH A MIX OF VALLEY MVFR AND IFR DEVELOPING. ON THE
EAST SIDE A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING, MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. MOSTLY VFR BECOMING MVFR IS EXPECTED
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAGNATE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WARM FRONTAL INVERSION
LOWERS. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 0350 AM PST SUN FEB 14, 2016...MODERATE WEST SWELL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 FEET MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL
BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATE TO STRONG FRONTS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. SOUTH GALES ARE POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

FJB/FJB/NSK


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