Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 260847
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
147 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THE CHALLENGE IS IF AND WHERE
STRATUS WILL FORM THIS MORNING AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY. LAST NIGHT THE CLOUDS BEGAN FORMING BY 09Z. THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE SIMILAR WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AGAIN. THE MODELS PREDICT HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
RH THIS MORNING. DESPITE THIS, WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS CONFINED
TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO BUT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
ABOUT WHETHER STRATUS WILL FORM FARTHER INLAND.

HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THERE ARE ONLY
SLOW CHANGES TO THE AIR MASS OCCURRING THIS WEEK. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWEST. THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY...AND THEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAINS UNSTABLE INLAND FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER WEAK MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW. THESE
CONDITIONS IN LATE JULY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST CAN BE REFINED
ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS AS SATELLITE AND MODELS PINPOINT THE
DISTURBANCES.

THE ADVERTISED WARMING TREND WILL PUSH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
TO AROUND 100 FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEDFORD WILL LIKELY
BREAK THE ALL-TIME WARMEST JULY MONTHLY RECORD THAT WAS SET JUST
LAST YEAR. THE AVERAGE MONTHLY JULY TEMPERATURE (HIGHS AND LOWS AVERAGED)
COULD END UP CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN MEDFORD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM SO BAD
WHEN YOU CONSIDER THAT PHOENIX, ARIZONA IS AVERAGING 96 DEGREES
SO FAR THIS MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/06Z TAFS...

GUIDANCE SUGGEST IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE COAST AFTER 8Z
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP MARINE STRATUS FROM AFFECTING TERMINALS
THERE. INLAND, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RAW MODEL OUTPUT AND MOS GUIDANCE AGREE THAT CEILINGS SHOULD STAY
WEST OF ROSEBURG...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE ROSEBURG TAF.
PERHAPS LOCAL MVFR CIGS COULD FORM WEST OF INTERSTATE 5 IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING BY LATE MORNING.
CEILINGS AT COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD ALSO CLEAR BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING.
SK


&&


.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

RES/RES/NSK






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