Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
389
FXUS63 KMKX 060337
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
937 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...WEAK ISENTROPIC
OMEGA ON 285 THETA SURFACE AND LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS MAY YET BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE OUT SOME FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
KPDC REPORTING 10SM AND UP FROM A MID-CLOUD DECK AT 03Z. THICKENING
CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING SO
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...WITH MINOR
TWEAKING.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR FORECAST FOR THE TAF SITES FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS
TO LOWER TO AROUND 3-4 KFT LATE...WITH SOME FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCE DROPPING THEM TO MVFR LEVELS IN MSN TOWARDS MORNING.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH COULD BE AN
ISSUE...PARTICUARLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. KEPT CIGS VFR AT
THE EASTERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT DRIER.
ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER TO VFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH TRAVERSES
THE AREA. HOWEVER...IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. FEW GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SFC RIDGE OVER WRN WI WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFT AND
EVE. THE MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WERE DELAYED BUT ARE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE FROM SW WI.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL THEN PASS LATE
TNT BUT WITH A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH
TRACKING FROM SD TO WRN MO BY 12Z SAT. THE OTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE
WILL BE OVER ONTARIO CANADA ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. THUS
ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND PVA WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE OVER
SRN WI WITH STRONGER WAA VIA A 40 KT LLJ OVER NRN WI. THE OVERALL
LIFT IS VERY WEAK ACROSS SRN WI WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. WENT WITH FLURRIES ACROSS THE NRN CWA LATE TNT.

ON SAT...AVA AND HEIGHT RISES/THICKNESS RISES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH INTENSIFYING LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ON WSWLY WINDS. THE WLY FLOW AND INCREASED WAA IS A
RESULT OF CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND SRN MANITOBA
CANADA VIA A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS. 850 MB
TEMPS WILL WARM TO -2 TO -3C BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH SFC TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 30S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS WEAK. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS STRONGER WITH 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING SUNDAY. THE
700 MB SATURATES IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED BAND IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRIES SOMEWHAT SUNDAY. THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND COOL FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS BRINGS
A VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MODELS DRY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACHES
LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH AT 500 MB BECOMES A
BROAD CLOSED LOW THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EXITS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW
IS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON THE GFS. THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
SATURATE AND COOL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN -5 CELSIUS AND
SUPPORT SNOW.

SNOWFALL GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE TOTALS OF AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES
WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO A NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY.

COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
EAST AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST CANADA.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THE
ECMWF THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER WEST.
THE ECMWF THEN MOVES A SURFACE LOW INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY...WHILE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE HIGH STILL ACROSS THE
AREA.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TNT ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON WHETHER STRATUS WILL FORM TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. A DECAYING SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
MAY HAVE A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS ALONG IT. HOWEVER...THE WEAKENING
OF THE SFC TROUGH MAY RESULT IN THE BREAK UP OF ANY STRATUS PRESENT.
AT THIS TIME...DID GO WITH 1-2 KFT CIGS FOR KMSN SAT AM WITH BREAK
UP BY LATE MORNING. KEPT CIGS AT 3.5-5.0 KFT FOR THE SERN WI TAF
SITES. THEN EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BECOME SCT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS COMING IN LATE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE PUBLIC/MARINE...MBK
UPDATE AVIATION...SPM
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION...GEHRING
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HENTZ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.