Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 170659
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
259 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FOR THE NEAR-TERM...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN FORECAST DUE TO
EASTERLY WINDS. THIS MAY LIMIT FREEZE/FROST EXTENT EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME AREAS WILL REACH CRITERIA...SO WILL MAINTAIN
HEADLINES AS IS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY. AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH VERY LOW
RELATIVE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ANTICIPATED. UPPER FLOW IS
SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL ADVECT AREAS OF CIRRUS AND CIRRO-STRATUS
CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AREAS...BUT INCREASING HIGH AND SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND
REVEAL TWO WEAK COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME PERIODS. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN GA WHICH WILL LIKELY CUT OFF THE NORTHWARD
FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW INDICATE THAT THE SECOND COLD FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE SLOWER...AND SHOULD NOT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT. THUS...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTORMS ON
TUESDAY WITH THIS SECOND COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY
TREND CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  44  65  46 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  42  64  46 /   0   0  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  41  64  46 /   0   0  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  36  63  42 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-
     MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-WEST
     POLK.

VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




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