Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 270738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
338 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FRONTO-GENETIC BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
MID-MORNING. A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS
WAVE WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (500MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -30 TO -32C) STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO OVER 100 J/KG...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN SHOWERS. MODELS POINT TO THE BEST AREA
OVER THE PLATEAU INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SMOKIES...
GENERALLY FROM COCKE TO MONROE COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED THERE.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS END WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ADVECTION OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED MOST LOCATIONS BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AFTER A FREEZE
SATURDAY MORNING /WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS/...THE SKY WILL CLEAR OFF QUICKLY AS THE FIRST TROUGH
DEPARTS THE REGION. THE CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
THEN...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT /ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FROM A SECOND PASSING SHORTWAVE/ WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER HARD FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AREAWIDE. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BRING A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BOUT
OF DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL THOUGH...IT
WILL BE A FAIRLY SEASONABLE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  31  49  28 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  27  44  25 /  30  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  27  44  26 /  40  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  26  39  21 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$





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