Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
FXUS65 KMSO 101020
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
420 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
...STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...
.DISCUSSION...Near record temperatures are expected today across
southwest Montana into Lemhi County, Idaho. Todays high in Butte
may just reach the record for the day of 80 degrees.
A cold front is still expected to make its way through the region
this evening into the overnight. Winds across the higher terrain
could gusts over 45 mph while locations in the valleys will see
gusts over 35 mph. There is some concern that stronger winds could
be felt across the Bitterroot Valley tonight but confidence is
low. As the system pulls away from the area Sunday, winds will
continue to be gusty. With regard to rainfall, a trace to several
hundredths are expected in the valleys while up to 0.50" is
possible in the higher terrain. Snow levels will fall to around
7,000 feet by Sunday morning with only light amounts expected.
Model guidance suggests that high pressure will slowly develop and
intensify over the Northern Rockies from Monday through next
weekend. Anticipate mostly dry conditions and near-record warm
October daytime temperatures during this time. The pattern to come
has more in common with August than October. Unfortunately, the
dry and warm conditions will allow a resurgence of smoke from
some of the remaining wildfires around the region. By the end of
next weekend, models agree that a change in the pattern will come
to pass, however the signal is fairly vague at this point. Bottom
line: the late summer warmth cannot last forever and we lose 3-4
minutes of daylight (warming) every day in the next week.
.AVIATION...Mountain wave activity will continue along and east of
the Continental Divide. Meanwhile, expect breezy conditions to
develop after 10/1800z at all the terminals. A strong cold front
is expected to traverse across central Idaho between 11/0000z and
11/0600z, and across western Montana after 11/0600z. Expect strong
winds at ridge-top near 50 knots, with obscuration from rain and
clouds. Surface winds with the front could gust to 40 knots at all
terminals. On Sunday, winds will continue to be gusty while
precipitation chances will decrease throughout the day. Strong
winds will continue to be possible across higher valleys near the
Continental Divide especially near KBTM, Avon, MacDonald Pass and
along the I-90 corridor from Deer Lodge to Warm Springs.
MT...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 PM MDT Sunday
Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 PM MDT Sunday
Flathead/Mission Valleys...West Glacier Region.