Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 162037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
237 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...A weak wave of energy will continue to produce cloud
cover and a few light showers this afternoon and early evening. It
is possible to even see a few lightning strikes, although this
threat will mainly be across southwest Montana and Lemhi Co in
Idaho. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain itself over the
region through Wednesday. This will translate to continued above
normal temperatures. A few showers and thunderstorms will again
be possible Wednesday afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes,
mainly across southwest Montana.

A change initiate Thursday as a weak cold front and upper level
trough begins to move through western Montana and north central
Idaho. This will lead to fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Some forecast models indicate that convective
activity could begin a bit earlier than normal, possibly in the
mid morning hours. aside from clouds and periods of precipitation,
winds will become breezy from the west in the afternoon.

Friday will be the coolest day of the weak as northwest flow,
cloud cover and showers remain over the region. This cooler
pattern won`t last long however, as forecast models continue to
show a strong ridge of high pressure for the weekend. A return to
dry conditions with above normal temperatures can be expected into
early next week.


.AVIATION...Increased mid to high level cloud cover will continue
to locally reduce ceilings across western Montana and north
central Idaho this afternoon and evening. A few embedded showers
and possibly even a thunderstorm is possible, mainly across Lemhi
Co in Idaho into southwest Montana, including airfields KSMN and
KBTM. Cloud cover and shower activity should be on the downward
trend this evening.



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