Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
FXUS66 KMTR 311115
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
415 AM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A warming trend is forecast through late week as high
pressure builds along the California coast. Inland temperatures will
warm into the 80s to 90s by mid to late week while coastal locations
remain cooler. A system will approach the Central Coast and could
bring a few showers or thunderstorms to our region starting late
.DISCUSSION...as of 3:10 AM PDT Tuesday...Somewhat similar setup
to yesterday at this time with clouds along the coast. Marine
layer has slightly compressed over the past day and is now down to
around 1000 feet. SFO-SAC gradient remains over 2 MB, so could see
some clouds plus patchy fog advancing into adjacent bays over the
next few hours. Will likely see some pockets of drizzle as well.
Synoptically a ridge of high pressure will remain nearly
stationary while 925 MB temps will increase around 2C from Monday.
This will translate into warmer readings with inland locations in
the 80s to mid 90s. Coastal spots should have enough marine
influence to only peak out in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Only minor day-to-day changes can be expected through the rest of
the week as the ridge remains the main driving force. 925 MB temps
will see additional increases, so temperatures in most locations
will warm to the end of the work week. Right now the warmest
readings are forecast for Friday with 90s likely into most of the
Santa Clara Valley. The dome of warm air will push into coastal
locations with more 70s expect on that day.
The various models continue to bring an upper level low into our
CWA late Saturday or on Sunday. Operational GFS and ECMWF models
are in very good agreement over the weekend with the general
location and depth of the low, however any slight adjustment more
to the south could greatly reduce our chances for convection.
Decided to put in a slight chance of showers of the southern half
of the CWA for Saturday evening into Sunday. Biggest concern
remains for fire weather if any thunderstorms happen.
.AVIATION...as of 04:12 AM PDT Monday...tricky forecast this
morning as onshore gradient is weaker and cloud cover is less than
24 hours ago. That being said, decide to be more optimistic for SF
Bay and remove prevail cigs. Will have to keep a close eye on the
satellite trends, but only sign of a cig is near NUQ. Patchy dense
fog will be possible for STS and MRY Bay terminals. VFR this
afternoon at all terminals. Shallow marine layer possible again
tonight. Overall conf is medium, but lower in SF Bay.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions today. Patchy MVFR cigs poss
SFO Bridge Approach...Patchy cigs possible over far S end of
approach as NUQ has a deck near 700 feet.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Low cigs and fog likely 16-17z then VFR.
Cigs return early this evening.
.MARINE...as of 3:10 AM PDT Tuesday...Northerly winds will
continue over the coastal waters as high pressure remains off the
west coast. A mixed swell will continue to impact the coast with a
moderate short period northwest swell and a longer period
.Tday...SCA...SF Bay from 12 PM
PUBLIC FORECAST: Bell
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