Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 210016
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
516 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF TODAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT
WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY REPORTED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER NORTH...A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUM
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY LATE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL TO A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT PUSH INLAND AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET DIFFER ON
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

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