Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 220005
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
405 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO FAR RADARS HAVE NOT
PICKED UP ANY ECHOS IN OUR CWA. INSTEAD, ALL RAIN HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO MENDOCINO COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE NORTH. LATEST
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORCAL/PACNW TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL START TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH
BAY AND DOWN TO SF BAY REGION DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO MONTEREY BAY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT FINALLY WASHES OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 1/3"-2/3"
FOR MANY URBAN AREAS ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS (1"-2"). FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
(OUTSIDE OF THE SC MOUNTAINS) CAN EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS. MOIST
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN SHELTERED SPOTS COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION -- ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH BAY.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL FORCE THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FROM CPC GOING INTO
DECEMBER SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL, SO THE BREAK NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:05 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. INCREASING
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH SLIDES FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN THE NORTH BAY THEN
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. WINDS WILL
VEER WESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.


VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE
RAIN APPROACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
12Z-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND 20Z
SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE
WEST AFTER 23Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AND TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP

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