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207
FXUS63 KPAH 222346
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
646 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Laps indicates best surface based Cape close to 3K J/KG is
extending from the Lakes into the southern Pennyrile of western Ky,
or just ahead of approaching line of convection. Cloud cover has
tamped down what would have otherwise been more unstable air
today, lidding high temps even as tongue of still high dew points
over-rode area. All short range modeling ends pcpn west to east by
early to mid evening, and that looks good to go with current
satellite/radar trends, maybe even sooner than that. Spc`s marginal
risk to slight (far east) risk continues until this convection
marches on across region.

Lows start to transition behind fropa tonight, with fall thru 60s
and perhaps some 50s working into northern parts, with 50s
widespread following two nights. Highs drop back to around
80/either side of, for next two days as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Effects of fropa and surface High pressure that builds in its wake
allowing cooler/drier air to invade PAH FA stick around thru first
half of long term forecast as surface High pressure swallows Ohio
valley with its influence.

Blended modeling does produce scant qpf/teens pops over the
weekend, but we think its a more of a blended bleed and believe
the overall influence of the High will win out to silence Pops for
the weekend at least. That appears to be collaborative consensus
as well.

That changes next week, as the High breaks down and tropical
moisture starts to enter the forecast pic. We`ll have to follow
Harvey`s remnants closely, but more and more the signal is for
increasing tropical elements/influence as the week wears on, hence
the cooler than normal/wetter than normal longer term graphics.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Cooler/drier northerly flow will dominate the weather picture for
the next several days. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24
hours, with generally only a few high clouds and northwest to north
winds under 12 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$