Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 231932
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
232 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

High pressure will continue to extend from the NE U.S. to the Gulf
Coast and southern Plains through the short term period with dry
weather the rule. A weakening mid level ridge between two trofs/lows
will mean little in terms of our weather. Just a few high clouds
working in from the west as the thin ridge continues to weaken.
Maybe a little CU with time. MOS and bias corrected output was best
for lows last night, and a persistence approach will be used for
the next two nights. Highs will be continue to be a weighted
average blend with some MOS factored in.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

The ECWMF and GFS are having a difficult time handing the
evolution of the mid tropospheric pattern. The problem is, a weak
h5 low is cut off over the nation`s mid section within a high
amplitude regime, and developing ridge over the northern tier of
states. Ridge holds off the SE Atlantic coast as well. The GFS
wants to move the h5 low on along to the east (06z run), even a
low split (12z) run. Runs of the ECMWF hold back, including its
ensemble mean, as strong flow comes in off the Pacific and across
the west U.S. eventually evolving into a west U.S. trof. The GEM
and UKMET solutions favor the ECMWF, so more weight was given to
the three vs. the GFS, though the GFS will not be discounted.
We`ll keep Saturday dry, and only introduce a slight chance of
showers far southern sections (TN/AR border counties) Sunday. Will
have a little better chance of convection Sunday night through
Monday, then taper PoPs back down Monday night through Tuesday
given lowering confidence and a depiction related to system
progression from west to east. Temps will be a blend of existing
numbers and the latest blend of MOS and raw model output. Raised
lows just a bit given an increase in low level moisture is
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1104 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A few high clouds, and light east winds the rule through sunset.
May be ground fog again at KPAH and KCGI. Used persistence as a
baseline, with calm winds tonight. Light SE winds and a few high
clouds again Wednesday. May see a few CU into west KY Wednesday
by afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

Noles





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