Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 171841

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1241 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1241 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

We`re seeing the last remnants of rain depart our eastern counties
this afternoon. However, time/height cross sections show saturated
lower trop/esp below 850 mb, to the surface, so anticipate a
nightfall of low clouds/drizzle/fog. This should wane starting
early tmrw, as some drier air in the column works in from the
west, and dissipates drizzle if not the clouds by the pm hours.
Temps warm as well, returning to the 50s for highs, with maybe
some sunshine helping them into the 60s by Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1241 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Mid week rain chances affect mainly our southern counties, and the
warm environment we inherit shows no signs of diminishing so all
liquid pcpn is expected. Some modeling hints at elevated
instability sufficient to support thunder, but SPC must be waiting
on a stronger and more consistent signal in this regard, with
their day 3 general risk well to the south. Temps stay seasonally
mild in the 50s thru the workweek, which ends dry.

The next pcpn on the horizon comes with the weekend system, and it
will feature our next punch of cooler air, so it leads to the
possibility of some mixed or frozen pcpn. The builder suggests a
liquid event Friday evening, transitioning to snow/before ending,
mainly across our north, late Friday night into early Saturday
morning. Light qpf/little chance for accumulations, at least with
this package look. The main impact is temps cool, closer to
seasonal norms, for the weekend.


Issued at 1241 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Rain is ending but satellite and time/height cross sections show
the lower trop is saturated thru the flight forecast, with
drizzle/fog anticipated during the overnight hours. This will
offer MVFR restrictions for both cigs/vsbys, once the sun sets
and decks fall. Slow improvement with dry air entrainment from
the west tmrw means continued restrictions to cigs, if not vsbys,
continue at least thru the am hours, with the planning period
offering the best chance for restriction free flight rules.



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