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000
FXUS63 KPAH 081753
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1153 AM CST Sat Mar 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

Not much fun catching up to pre-front low clouds/fog this morning,
and also the conditions with and behind the front along with the
cluster of showers that is progressing eastward toward northern
portions of southeast Missouri before noon. It sure looks like the
showers are going to make it at least into the Marble Hill and
Perryville areas, but its fate this afternoon is dubious, as most
of the hi-res convective resolving models dry it up as it gets
into southern Illinois early this afternoon. Increased pops to
good chance in the northwest corner of the area and then just
trended downward toward the existing forecast at 21Z. This may
need to be adjusted further around midday.

Low clouds and fog have accentuated the impact of the snow cover
over southeast Missouri and adjacent portions of southern Illinois
and west Kentucky this morning. Made some adjustments to the
temperature grids to account for the clouds and snowpack. Also
increased highs a bit in the Pennyrile where decent sunshine and
southwest winds are expected through the afternoon. Also increased
the clouds more quickly behind the cold front and sped up its
entry into the area through midday. The latest guidance still
holds it up half way through the area early this afternoon before
pushing through the southeast half of the area late this
afternoon. Tried to adjust temperatures downward behind the front
due to the more solid cloud cover expected there.

The AVIATION section has additional comments on the TAF
adjustments this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

In the very short term, issued an SPS for some patchy ice on roads
due to patchy freezing fog and refreezing of melted snow/ice.
Temperatures should be above freezing quickly after sunrise.

An an area of high pressure will help to push a weak front
through the area today. At the same time a shortwave over the
southern Rockies is forecast to move east and aid in the
development of a weak low pressure system over west central Texas.
As a result of the overrunning produced by the low, some light
rain should move through the area today and tonight. Some light
snow may mix with the rain over the northern sections briefly this
evening. No accumulation is expected.

High pressure should allow for dry and relatively clear skies
through Monday Night.

High temperatures today may be tempered somewhat by the remaining
ice and the cold frontal passage over the southwest and central
sections. By Monday we expect most of the snow/ice to be gone and
should rise into the 60s over all areas on the back side of the
high pressure.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

Rather complex pattern setting up for the first portion of the long
term forecast. Models are in decent agreement on the overall
synoptic pattern, but differ somewhat on timing and qpf. It now
looks like a split flow srn stream h50 low will travel ene across
the nrn Gulf region during the day Tue as a nrn branch trof digs
se into the nrn/cntrl Rockies. This will likely leave us between
systems initially, in broad wswly flow aloft. Therefore, will go
with a dry and quite mild forecast Tue with highs well into the 60s.

The nrn branch trof will likely spawn a sfc low development over the
srn Plains Tue night. This low will then track ne into the Ohio
Valley later Tue night/early Wed, bringing a chc of light rain to
most locations. GFS remains the more progressive with this feature,
and has it over the East Coast by noon Wed. The ECMWF is still
slower and thus holds onto precip chcs longer Wed. The operational
EC has sped up compared to prev runs, and is catching up with the
operational GFS. Thus, it now looks as though most of the
moisture/precip will be east of the region Wed evening before the
boundary layer is cold enuf to support a change to snow.

Beyond Wednesday night, high pressure will be building across the
eastern U.S.  MEX and ECE guidance still differ by 10 degrees or so
for highs on Thursday, with ECE the colder guidance.  Winds will be
out of the northwest through the day, however believe ECE is too
cold based on clearing skies and increasing sun angle. Also, this
should only be a 1020 mb high coming out of srn Canada as opposed to
the prev 1040 mb high last week.  Leaned more heavily toward MEX
guidance but did not go all that way for now.  By Thursday night
into Friday, guidance comes into better agreement, and with winds
shifting back to the southwest, temperatures will moderate back to
near seasonal readings.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

Not exactly a fun set of TAFs this morning. The cold front has
reached KCGI and will spread east through all sites by 21Z. Am
expecting that the IFR ceilings in and around KPAH will mix out
before the front arrives, but the way things have gone this
morning, take that with a grain of salt. Assuming that VFR
conditions are achieved before the front arrives, there will be a
quick increase in mid-level clouds right behind the front, but the
MVFR ceilings will be delayed around 3 hours behind the wind
shift. Am reasonably confident in at least MVFR ceilings for
awhile behind the front, with KCGI having the longest duration and
KEVV the shortest. Some scattered light showers will also be
possible at all sites late this afternoon and this evening. Skies
should clear out by morning, but winds will be weakening as well.
This could lead to yet another round of fog or very low ceilings
by daybreak. This would be most likely KCGI, and IFR conditions
have been added to the forecast there.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DRS