Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 310219
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1019 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA. PARTIAL CLEARING IS FOLLOWING QUICK ON ITS HEELS WITH
DECOUPLING THE NET RESULT. IN AREAS THAT HAVE DECOUPLED...FOG IS
ALREADY DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SECOND BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE NORTH OF CLEVELAND. WHILE A BIT OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MAKE IT INLAND AS DYING SHOWERS...THUNDER SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AS
IT LEAVES THE WARM SURFACE OF LAKE ERIE AND COMES OVER THE MUCH
COLDER AND MORE STABLE LAND. FRIES

ANOTHER QUICK MOVING AND WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH. CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION WEST AS
A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INITIALLY BE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES SPREADING WEST WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY BUT MODELS
HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO TIMING THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH AND HELP SUPPORT ACTIVITY SO HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY
MONDAY AS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMING
MORE ZONAL. NEXT FRONT MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWER STORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY...AS LATEST MODELS SHOWING WEAK CAA OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP A VFR FORECAST FOR CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...WITH A SCT-
BKN COVERAGE. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG AT ZZV AND MGW AS
THEY SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUD COVER. WILL GO WITH MVFR TEMPO LIFR AT
ZZV. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR FOG...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE NORTH TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SHOWERS BACK
INTO FKL AND DUJ. WILL KEEP IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THESE PORTS FOR
THIS THREAT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR ANY STRATOCU TO DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 15KTS OUT OF THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.



OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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