Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 250335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1135 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Low pressure tracking along the East Coast should result in
periodic rain chances mainly east of I-79 early in the week.
Dry and warm weather is expected with mid-week high pressure.


Main change at 1130 PM was to expand area of chance PoPs
westward towards sunrise. Hi-res models indicating an increase
in low level convergence which could allow scattered showers to
bloom into southeast Ohio. Further increase in PoPs may be
warranted in next update. Will continue to monitor the possibility
of easterly winds and a strong inversion at ridge top producing
a mountain wave, providing strong wind gusts along and to the
western lee of the ridges. So far, wind gusts have topped out
around 25-30 knots in the early stages of this event. Minor
changes to other grids.

Previous discussion for Tuesday follows...

The upper low will track along the coast Tuesday, keeping us on
along the northwestern periphery of the system. Rain chances
will remain best confined to the higher elevations, but a weak
area of deformation could spill rain west, closer to Pittsburgh
during the day Tuesday.

Temperatures tonight will be above seasonal averages with
uniform cloud cover. Another west to east gradient of high
temperatures is expected Tuesday as cool air advects into the
eastern zones, under overcast skies.


The upper-level low will finally move out of the region Wednesday
morning as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley.
This will bring tranquil weather back to the local area for
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Strong southerly flow through the mid-
levels will establish as heights build Wednesday. This and
relatively cloud-free skies will lead to strong warming, with
temperatures topping out around 15 degrees above average.
Highs in the low 80s should be common.


Ridging is progged to shift east early in the period as a trough
advances out of the Midwest, returning rain chances to the
forecast. Gradually increasing heights and SW upper flow are
expected through the weekend in response to a deepening wrn
CONUS trough. Embedded shortwaves in the SW flow should result
in periodic shower/thunderstorm chances from late week through
the weekend. Temperatures are expected to average 10-20 degrees
above seasonal levels.


VFR conditions will generally prevail through much of the
overnight period, with deeper moisture confined to the ridges
in southeasterly flow. Some very light precip has been reported
west of the terrain but this should not promote more than brief
visibility restrictions, if any. Some stronger wind gusts may
continue through 09z, mainly at LBE, as low level winds
increase at or just below the strengthening inversion.

Ceilings should generally stay around 5kft, but some lower cigs
are possible in the easternmost TAF locations Tuesday afternoon,
with deeper moisture spilling over the terrain.

The next chance for general restrictions is expected with mid
week low pressure.




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