Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 190202
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
902 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow are expected late Thursday night into Friday. Above
normal temperatures are forecast for the entire seven day period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Clouds and spotty drizzle continue this evening. Obs are not
reporting it, but we are getting very light drizzle from time to
time here at the office. Have extended drizzle through 06Z in the
grids. Thereafter, slow warm advection should end the drizzle and
begin to thin the clouds a bit. Temperatures in good shape and
only made minimal tweaks.

Previous discussion...

As winds back to the south on Thursday, some dry advection should
allow for clouds to eventually scatter out. Overnight temperatures
will be in the low to mid 30s, which is pretty close to normal
daytime highs, and it should be the coldest night out of the next
seven. Thursday highs should range from the mid 40s to the mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper low over the central Plains will open into a trough as it
moves across the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. At the
surface, this should bring a band of precipitation during that
same time period. Have bumped up pops to categorical in all
locations, and the timing should allow for some minimal snow
accumulation of up to an inch for locations north of Pittsburgh.
Although a lingering rain shower could persist Friday evening,
overnight Friday and Saturday should be dry. Saturday will have
the warmest temperatures of the seven days, with many locations
reaching the 60 degree mark.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong upper low will develop across the Southern Plains and
track to the northeast through the beginning of next week.
Although the ECMWF and GFS still show some timing differences,
this will bring occasional rain Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR to IFR cigs will persist overnight as low pressure shifts
east of the region. Improvements can be expected Thursday as
building high pressure supports general VFR.

.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions are likely again as low pressure develops toward the
Great Lakes by Friday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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