Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221826
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
126 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic rain chances will continue through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With 1pm update, have pulled all freezing rain from the
forecast and allowed the winter weather advisory to expire.
While widespread moderate rain has moved east of the region,
additional light rain has developed across the central portion
of the forecast area. The light rain should move east of the
region by late afternoon. Temperatures will remain nearly steady
or slowly rise through the rest of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
After a brief dry spell tonight, rain will move back in from
the southwest on Friday, as the next upper level wave crosses
the region, and a surface warm front stretches across the area.
This boundary will be the focus of the rainfall through Friday,
as models are showing a well defined area of low-level moisture
convergence along the front. The aforementioned large scale
ascent will assist in increasing rainfall intensity late Friday
morning through the afternoon hours. Rain is expected to
dissipate Friday evening and into the overnight hours, as
another shortwave trough will drive the stalled boundary
southeastward. This will allow for a brief reprieve Friday night
before another round of upper level waves brings more rain to
the region on Saturday. There will be hydrologic concerns
through the entire period.

Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, well above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will move across the western Great Lakes Saturday
night into Sunday and sweep a cold front across the Ohio Valley,
providing some definitive clearing for the local area. This
should allow for a dry forecast from Sunday night through
Wednesday. One more day of temperatures in the 60s can be
expected on Sunday, before temperatures fall to slightly above
normal values for the start of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Improvement to MVFR this afternoon as rain tapers off from west
to east. IFR will return Friday morning as rain develops again
over the area.

OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are expected through Sunday
with a series of crossing low pressure areas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Numerous forecast points are already at action stages across the
region. Pittsburgh is already over 20 feet.

3 successive disturbances over the next 72 hours will drop
rainfall amounts ranging from 1.50 to 4.50 inches across the
region.

River Flood watches will likely be expanded across the region.
With QPF, we expect river flooding to be widespread by 00Z/25
February.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MDZ001.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OHZ039>041-048>050-
     057>059-068-069.
PA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for PAZ007>009-013>016-
     020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for WVZ001>004-012-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$


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