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000
FXUS65 KPIH 160920
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
320 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE NEAR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER IDAHO WILL
PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LOST RIVER...SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS ABOUT 5200-5400 FEET
ELEVATION THIS AFTERNOON BUT ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN
INCH EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEST COAST RIDGE MOVES INLAND THURSDAY
THROUGH ALMOST FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING A PAUSE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY MORNING...CROSSING THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY DAY...BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT INSTABILITY DOES NOT SEEM TO FAVOR
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST OF STATE BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING LEADING TO CLEARING OVER NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM ARE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS A LITTLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. LOWERED POPS MOST EVERYWHERE FOR SATURDAY...LEAVING A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY...THEN VALLEYS WARM INTO THE 60S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VERY
LITTLE COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY. RS

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST.  UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE MAIN IMPACTS.
WITH THE TROUGH SLOWLY DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT TOO EARLY FOR TIMING.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND ON
TUESDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ALONG WITH INSTABILITY IN THE
WARM SECTOR OVER EASTERN IDAHO.  GFS MODEL IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN
EUROPEAN AT THIS POINT SO A BLEND WAS PLACED IN OUR FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY TO COOL DOWN AS COLD FRONT IS TO THE EAST.  SHOWERS LINGER
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM THE 70S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO THE
50S AND LOWS 60S.  PRESTON

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.  NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE REGION BUT MINIMAL
IMPACTS AT EACH OF THE TAF AIRPORTS.  THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN UP TO 18KTS AS THE ONLY MINOR
IMPACT EXPECTED. PRESTON

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$