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000
FXUS65 KPIH 091925
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
125 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT IS STREAMING
PAC MOISTURE INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY...WITH PRECIP OCCURRING
MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THIS
AFTN. PRECIP WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY MON MORN AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS THRU MON...AND IN THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS THRU MON
EVE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH THE WARM SW FLOW WITH OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS MAY COMBINE WITH SNOWMELT TO RESULT IN LOWLAND FLOODING.
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING.

TEMPS WILL FALL MON NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF PASSES...WHICH WILL
ALSO BE WHEN PRECIP BEGINS TO TAPER OFF TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS ON TUE. UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW ON WED RESULTING IN DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO BEAR OUT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO AS A STORM OR
TWO TRACK ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER AND DROP SOUTHEAST NEAR THE
DIVIDE. THIS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WE SHOULD SEE THE RIDGE BUILD BACK
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL VERSION OF THE GFS IS STARTING
THE BUCK THE TREND OF A STRONG RIDGE BY SUNDAY...WHEREAS ALL OF THE
ENSEMBLES AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE. WE ARE
NOT FOLLOWING ALONG WITH THE GFS AND WILL KEEP THINGS TOTALLY DRY.
KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WE WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING VALLEY
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT ALL 4 TAF SITES WILL SEE RAIN. BASED
ON THAT...EVEN IF WE GET HEAVIER RAINFALL TO OCCUR WE WOULD ONLY SEE
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR/MVFR WEATHER IS FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ONE THING THAT IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE TAFS IS
A POTENTIAL SHORT BREAK DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AT
KBYI/KIDA/KPIH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW AND THAT IS THE REASON
FOR NOT INCLUDING IT. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
BELOW 6500 FEET FOR THE IDZ019.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
MONDAY NIGHT ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019.

FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
BELOW 6500 FEET FOR THE IDZ031.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR
THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$