Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
000
FXUS65 KPIH 020830
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
230 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BC COAST THIS MORN
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH TO THE WA/OR COAST BY FRI MORN. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TODAY
RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS. THE SW FLOW MAY DRAG SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO SE ID THIS EVE...
SETTING OFF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THRU TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTH...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CREEP INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS ON THU...
SPREADING TO THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS BY FRI. STILL MAY SEE ISOLD
ACTIVITY IN THE SE CORNER AS SUBTROP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET
PULLED IN BY THE SW FLOW.

THE PICTURE CHANGES BY SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND
TEMPS MUCH COOLER. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ID SAT NIGHT. MODELS
SHOWING A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ID...PUSHING MOST OF THE
PRECIP INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER LOW
FILLS AND MOVER NE OUT OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...WITH ALL AREAS
DRYING OUT SUN NIGHT.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN UPPER TROF THRU ID ON MON...BUT WITH
DIFFERING CONFIGURATIONS. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE DRY. TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS TUE AND WED.
HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AT IDA AND PIH
TO SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS AFTER 18 TO
20Z.  EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS AT BYI IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE
SUSTAINED WTIH 10 TO 15 ALSO AT SUN WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WILL BE VFR ACROSS THE BOARD WITH SOME MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEAST CORNER TONIGHT WITH SOME VCSH AT PIH AND IDA.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
IDAHO TODAY.  STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE DISTRICT AND A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 475...476 AND 410 BEGINNING AT NOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 9 PM.  GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.  HUMIDITY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS
THOSE ZONES AS WELL.   WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST SO THE WARNING LIMITED TO THOSE THREE ZONES.
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.  SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY IN ZONES 475
AND 476.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ410-475-476.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.